Who does the Elements community think will win the war? War prediction stats!

[smuglapse]

The only problem with this statistic is that some of the users had partially or completely randomized bets (like mine, for example). Random votes may place certain elements higher than others and vice versa, for that reason alone.

Great topic though. Let's see if War #1's 'trinity' will do just as well this time despite the upsets (new masters and players specifically). ^^;

Why not make the element you are playing for first and then make the rest random?

You personally may have done this but it doesn't look good for and when they have less first place votes than team members.

[Korugar]

I can not see air coming last, at all. And water will do much better than that.

But isn't water a lot better upgraded? I mean, I could be wrong, but I thought water was one of those elements that got the shorter end unupgraded, while being slightly more powerful when upgraded.

[Demagog]

Yall have to remember that the main factor in this event is luck. Who you play each round, choosing the right decks, having good draws... saying one element will do poorly due to "worse" cards isn't taking into consideration all of the other factors. Deck creation during this war is very versatile since only 50% of your deck/vault needs to be from your element and you can take 12 of off-element cards.

[coinich]

Also, stats for the next war are going to be far more skewed based on results than the one on this war.  What I find interesting is that Entropy is ranked higher than Earth, yet Entropy limped into third place last war whereas Earth solidly finished in second..

[Demagog]

Actually entropy got second and earth got third... and fire had a huge break with the two byes they got. Had they not gotten those and lost either of those games, there would have been a very different outcome. Fire may not have even finished top three. That's just the one thing that irked me about that war.

[Malduk]

Actually entropy got second and earth got third... and fire had a huge break with the two byes they got. Had they not gotten those and lost either of those games, there would have been a very different outcome. Fire may not have even finished top three. That's just the one thing that irked me about that war.

Speaking of... do we have a new rules about seeding?

[Demagog]

Ya, I complained about what happened and SG put in a rule that the last place team gets the bye, but no one can get a second bye until everyone else has gotten one. I'm pretty sure that's it anyway.

[kev]

Actually entropy got second and earth got third... and fire had a huge break with the two byes they got. Had they not gotten those and lost either of those games, there would have been a very different outcome. Fire may not have even finished top three. That's just the one thing that irked me about that war.

The rules in the first War clearly favored teams with byes, but what you've written here is absurd.  You're the only one who seems to be unable to let the first War go, and by repeatedly pointing to "luck" as the reason you didn't win the War, you're painting yourself a poor sport.  If you want a game without luck, elements isn't for you but incidentally here's  (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,10009.msg129224#msg129224) the reasons earth didn't win.  Whatever, it's time to move on.

Incidentally one of Team Fire's byes was Antagon, who was undefeated in the War and almost assuredly would've taken another six cards from whoever faced him.  But we wouldn't have finished top three?  Dude, we won with over 150 cards to spare.

Speaking of... do we have a new rules about seeding?

Yup.  It's in the War Rules thread.

[Demagog]

I won't claim to not be a poor sport because I've always hated losing. Anyway, I don't see anywhere where I said luck was the reason we didn't win the war. I did complain about our bad luck once or twice during the war, though.

Now, how many fire cards did yall have left at the end? 53. When did your byes occur? Rounds 4 and 5. That's way more than enough to have brought yall down to only one or two decks during round seven, and definitely more than enough time to have altered the entire course of the war.

I'm not trying to take anything away from yall; seriously, congratulations. If I were in your shoes, though, I wouldn't be too happy knowing things could have been very different had my team not received two byes.

[QuantumT]

Note that only three elements were in the top half of a ballot, on average. This shows that there is very little agreement regarding the bottom 9. The average placement for many elements was very close. In ranking them at the top, being in the 5th spot does not indicate that 5th was the average ranking that element received. Only Fire and Entropy were even able to average better than 5th place.

There may only be 3 teams in the top half if you make a hard cap at 6.5, but if you were to drop the cutoff for the top half by a tiny amount to 6.6, you'd include another 3 teams (Death, Aether, Dark).

The only problem with this statistic is that some of the users had partially or completely randomized bets (like mine, for example). Random votes may place certain elements higher than others and vice versa, for that reason alone.

If  enough people do this, it averages out.

[tyranim]

 

(sorry, all i really care about is air and water placing high)

[Korugar]

This is the wrong thread....