Who does the Elements community think will win the war? War prediction stats!

[catalyzeme]

Statistics are accurate as of 1:20 AM forum time, October 19th, 2010. I may update them once predictions close, but there probably won't be significant changes.


TOTAL BALLOTS: 162

All complete, legal ballots were counted. 2 complete ballots were ignored, because the users had already previously posted a complete ballot.

OVERALL PREDICTION STANDINGS:   

ELEMENT
AVERAGE PLACEMENT	4.1	6.52	7.25	5.09	7.22	3.36	8.11	7.35	8.27	7.56	6.58	6.54
1st Place Votes	31	10	6	11	10	40	11	10	5	6	11	11
Top 3 Votes	86	40	22	63	21	105	23	24	14	19	30	39
Bottom 3 Votes	13	40	40	18	51	8	69	54	65	50	32	45
Last Place Votes	3	11	13	5	16	3	32	10	25	17	10	17

The theoretical average for each element would be 6.50, if they were all randomly chosen.

Note that only three elements were in the top half of a ballot, on average. This shows that there is very little agreement regarding the bottom 9. The average placement for many elements was very close. In ranking them at the top, being in the 5th spot does not indicate that 5th was the average ranking that element received. Only Fire and Entropy were even able to average better than 5th place.


If predictions ended now and the standings were to be correct, then BetaParticle and Higurashi would each have the first 5 elements correct. They would have to duel to see who the winner is, since neither of them would have any of the final 7.

Good luck to everyone in the War  Prove your team is better than the community thinks you are!

[Memorystick]

Very nice. Kinda disappointing that was placed low so much- it's much better than its average placement would indicate.

[Hyroen]

Mixed feelings about this one, hurt that Air is placed so low, but honoured that Fire is placed so high.

[Demagog]

I put air in the top six on mine. I think a lot of people are going to be very surprised.

[implosion]

Hm... it's interesting to note the large gap between and everything else. Since the average placement for all elements is 6.5, and everything but these three elements was rated worse than this (, predicted fourth, had an average placement of 6.52), there seems to be a rather large schism. Either way, I suspect that many elements near the bottom ( of course, but also a few others) will place very high. I think a lot of people may have based this off of the last war, and well... things have changed.

[Scaredgirl]

Interesting stats. Thanks for doing the work.

[RavingRabbid]

What a nice thing. Air and Water are going to pwn all over the world.

[Kuroaitou]

The only problem with this statistic is that some of the users had partially or completely randomized bets (like mine, for example). Random votes may place certain elements higher than others and vice versa, for that reason alone.

Great topic though. Let's see if War #1's 'trinity' will do just as well this time despite the upsets (new masters and players specifically). ^^;

[Dragoon1140]

Aether was placed higher than Gravity?

Oh the irony...

[Sir Valimont]

Sounds about right ... except that  will be champion.

[Malduk]

IMO,  will end up higher. Darkness is stupidly strong element, air can stop almost every rush, and light can deckout almost everyone.
will end up lower. I have no idea why people think aether is so good.
Other stuff looks okay. Oh yeah, and will win obviously

[DrunkDestroyer]

Sounds about right ... except that  will be champion.

I can not see air coming last, at all. And water will do much better than that.

In fact, the first few make it look like people just briefly looked through the last war standings, and made some judgements based on percieved and stereotypical elemental stregnth.

Aether and life are known as good elements, however I think the community thinks they will do better than they actually will (and to a lesser extent)
This is also why the elements light and air are so low, because they are generally not seen as strong elements. Death probably escaped this due to very high performances in other areas. However, I have confidence that all 3 of them will do well (top half at least)