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Cambadillac

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What are the odds of... https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=4324.msg42692#msg42692
« on: March 23, 2010, 04:31:05 am »

This has happened more than once.  How the hell?  My 4 titans are the in the last 5 cards of my deck.


BTW, i won the match.  Gravity pull FTW.

Kael Hate

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Re: What are the odds of... https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=4324.msg42729#msg42729
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2010, 07:38:38 am »
How many Cards in your deck to begin with?
What are the deck contents?

Cambadillac

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Re: What are the odds of... https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=4324.msg42742#msg42742
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2010, 08:24:16 am »
simple deduction should give you an answer.  8)

4 titans in a deck.
minimum deck size is 30

drawing X amount till 5 left in deck and still no titans= Bad odds.
if there were more than 30 cards....
drawing X amount till 5 left in deck and still no titans= badder odds. :'(

either way, crazy bad odds to not have drawn a titan for so long.

You dont know my titan deck? for shame.  :P

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,3730.0.html





Offline Chemist

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Re: What are the odds of... https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=4324.msg42747#msg42747
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2010, 09:13:23 am »
Then the odds are (4C4 * 27C1) / 31C5 = 1*27/ 169911 = ~0,000159 = 0,0159%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Fisher-Yates shuffle doesn't change those odds. That means this should happen one game out of 6293 on average. It would appear you got lucky. :) (Remember: people win the lottery all the time.)

ragnoros

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Re: What are the odds of... https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=4324.msg42985#msg42985
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2010, 10:03:38 pm »
Then the odds are (4C4 * 27C1) / 31C5 = 1*27/ 169911 = ~0,000159 = 0,0159%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Fisher-Yates shuffle doesn't change those odds. That means this should happen one game out of 6293 on average. It would appear you got lucky. :) (Remember: people win the lottery all the time.)

U Sir.... Rock!  8)

 

anything
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