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Offline ElementalDearWatsonTopic starter

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Why the sudden, seismic shift in the metagame? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=61045.msg1221160#msg1221160
« on: January 25, 2016, 12:55:44 pm »
I generally farm Gold, because I find it more fun than Platinum.  I'd noticed that Shard Of Wisdom decks were becoming very common, maybe as many as 1 in 5 decks.  I had a deck which I used primarily for AI4, but which I realised with the metagame as it was would probably work really well against Gold, so I started using that and got a pretty good win rate, something like 7-8 out of 10.  After a few days of using this deck and getting good results I thought I'd gather up some statistics and post it in the Farming Statistics thread, as I was sure it would beat all the decks in there in terms of win/lose ratio, although not in terms of TTW. 

So I get up one morning, 2 or 3 days ago, and start using the deck while recording all the relevant statistics, only to find that the win rate had dropped to about 50%.  After about 40 games it occurred to me - I'd not faced a single deck which had a Shard of Wisdom.  And I still haven't.  Not one.  It literally went from something like 1 in 5 to none at all overnight.

While you'd expect changes to occur in the metagame - once Shard of Wisdom decks become common, decks which work against them will also become common and so people will stop posting Shard of Wisdom decks - but such a huge change literally overnight seems unusual.  Is it just the way that it worked out (with a little help from the RNG choosing which decks I fought), or did something happen which caused lots of people to simultaneously change strategy?

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Re: Why the sudden, seismic shift in the metagame? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=61045.msg1221162#msg1221162
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2016, 03:02:30 pm »
I really, really doubt that it went from 20% to 0%, especially not overnight. The idea that every single SoW deck, of which there are a hundred, would be taken down on the same day without any new SoW decks replacing them, is clearly absurd. Your observations can be chalked up to RNG and maybe a bit of confirmation bias, which is a far more likely explanation.
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Offline ElementalDearWatsonTopic starter

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Re: Why the sudden, seismic shift in the metagame? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=61045.msg1221164#msg1221164
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2016, 03:31:25 pm »
Confirmation bias and RNG is my primary hypothesis, too.  But I've been playing quite a lot over the last week or two (maybe 100 games a day) and I've gone from having a specifically anti-Shard of Wisdom deck regularly winning 2-3 special spins in a row to having an about 50% win rate.  And I've not encountered 1 single, solitary deck that uses Shard of Wisdom for days, now.

Given that, asking whether something trigger event I'm not aware of has occurred seems legitimate.

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Re: Why the sudden, seismic shift in the metagame? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=61045.msg1221171#msg1221171
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2016, 05:16:19 pm »
My alt certainly is a SoW deck, and should be in first spot judging by the win:loss (but isn't). You'll always find a large variety of decks in Silver and Gold because the players can make any decks (unlike Bronze) and a lot of different deck types can get first (unlike Plat).
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Offline ElementalDearWatsonTopic starter

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Re: Why the sudden, seismic shift in the metagame? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=61045.msg1221354#msg1221354
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2016, 05:50:10 pm »
Yeah, it must have been a fluke of the RNG, as it's back to loads of boring Shard Of Wisdom decks now.

 

anything
blarg: