Slot wheel mysteries revealed (finally!)

[Phoenicis Rex]

After MUCH digging around on the flashkit forum, I have found the mysterious secrets of the magical slot machine (http://board.flashkit.com/board/showpost.php?p=4178125&postcount=321) 

Well I will reveal the mystery about the spinning wheel:

The program takes the opponent deck and randomly finds 5 non pillar cards, the 5 non pillars cards are used for the spinning, so the possible combinations are

5^3=125

the winning combinations are

5

If all the 5 cards are different, the chance to win with a single spin is:

5/125 = 4%
(that's why I said 5%, it is actually 4, but there is a small chances that 2 or more of the same card will be used)

However, if a deck is specialized, the chances to have more cards of the same kind in the cards pool are higher, if 2 of the five cards are the same the chance to win is:

((2^3)+2) / 125 = 11/125 = 8.8%

etc... so, putting it in a table:

5 different cards = 4% winning chance
4 different cards = 8.8% winning chance
3 different cards = 23.2% winning chance
2 different cards = 52% winning chance
all cards are the same = 100%

That means that from a deck with only one kind of non-pillar card you'll win for sure, BUT....

In the new version I added something else: the program has only 50 chances to find all the 5 non-pillar cards, if it is not successfull at doing that it will start drawing pillars as well. This way, playing against a pillar only deck will give you 3 pillars. Statistic for almost all pillar decks gets quite complicated.

Actual step by step walkthrough:

1. Pick a random card in your opponent's deck
2. If it's a pillar, go back to 1
3. Security mechanism (for builds that are composed of pillars only) : if, after 10 random picks, you still get a pillar then keep it
4. Store card in variable card1.
5. Repeat steps 1 to 4, until you have filled 4 variables
6. Now the spinning starts for 3 rounds but you only pick cards in [card1, card2, card3, card4]. This ways, the chances to pick 3 times the same one are much higher.

EDITED by Mr. Jellyfish:

I wish I had seen this before... I wouldn't have explained everything again here (http://elementstheforum.smfforfree3.com/index.php/topic,836.0.html).

A few comments though:

* The first part of the algorithm creates what I call a "shortlist" of 5 cards, but only the first 4 are actually used afterwards (and that's what really counts). So the chances to get something are higher than what Zanzarino says. I don't know if it's bug or not, but that's how it works.

* The mechanism to prevent infinite loops described at the end of the post, doesn't stop searching for non-pillar cards after 50 failed attempts but after 10. That makes the risks to get a pillar from the spinning wheel much higher for builds that have about 50% pillars (or more). Also, only elemental pillars, elemental towers and quantum pillars are excluded. For some reasons, quantum towers are considered valid.

* There are also 2 undescribed mechanisms:
- one that converts every card into its non-upgraded version if you're not fighting against a fake god. This mechanism takes place after the exclusion of pillars, so quantum towers might be chosen in first place and then converted into quantum pillars (that's common in PvP)
- and another that has a 10% chance to replace the first card of the shortlist by a shard, if you're fighting against a fake god. The shard inserted here is always the one that upgrades into Shard of Divinity.

Hate to do this but are we sure this is still the case?   

Ever since I first saw this post I've been keeping track of the number of cards I see in the wheels when they stop and on several occasions I've seen six different cards. 

I just counted seven different cards in the spin. 

Unless it re-figures the cards before each individual spin?

[teffy]

1. Pick a random card in your opponent's deck
2. If it's a pillar, go back to 1
3. Security mechanism (for builds that are composed of pillars only) : if, after 10 random picks, you still get a pillar then keep it
4. Store card in variable card1.
5. Repeat steps 1 to 4, until you have filled 4 variables
6. Now the spinning starts for 3 rounds but you only pick cards in [card1, card2, card3, card4]. This ways, the chances to pick 3 times the same one are much higher.

But is it really the machine as zanzarino described it?
Assuming you are right.
For a deck with 66% pillars, the chances that there are no pillar cards in the 5 cards would be much lower than
0,66^10 = 1,5%
75%: chance < 6%.

I understood zanzarino like this:
1. Choose 5 cards in opponents deck (A card can be chosen several times)
2. If there is a pillar in these 5, do 1. ,but max. 50 times.
3. Choose 3 out of this 5. (A card can be chosen several times)

[Essence]

I believe that the rules have changed with the new update.  I've been t50-farming and I've starting winning normal-ass Pillars with alarming regularity.  Can anyone confirm or deny this?

[Jangoo]

Confirmed. This also goes for the FGs.
Seems like building a rare-farm doesnt revolve around 12 filler-pillars anymore.

[ghastly18]

i was just playing top 50 and i came against the 3rd ranked guy and the AI only played bone towers so won because i was using a fire speed deck so of course i got EM and when i spun i got
(http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96861/Relic3) (http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96862/Relic2) (http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96863/Relic)
idk how how he did it but i guess he got a bunch of nymphs and worked it to give me all relics without getting AI to play the nymphs. ty dude!

[ddevans96]

i was just playing top 50 and i came against the 3rd ranked guy and the AI only played bone towers so won because i was using a fire speed deck so of course i got EM and when i spun i got
(http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96861/Relic3) (http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96862/Relic2) (http://imageplay.net/view/m7Gbd96863/Relic)
idk how how he did it but i guess he got a bunch of nymphs and worked it to give me all relics without getting AI to play the nymphs. ty dude!

Thread necro much?

[EvaRia]

Lol yeah 0.o
People, don't post in threads that are like months and months old unless you have a REALLY good reason -.-

[Gocubbies1212]

posting this so i wont lose track of this thread~