Some Statistics on the oracle

[dragonhuman]

So we all think that getting a nymph is practically impossible yet other people seem to be getting lots of them, you may think that the oracle is biased (maybe he is) but to install faith in the oracle I proceeded to find the chances of getting a nymph/ a specific nymph. The chances are based on common stastics (all cards have equal chance of being chosen). These are my stastics I have calculated, the information I used to generate the stastics, and my math.

Cards in each element
Counts buyable cards, rare weapons, rares, nymphs, and in development
Other 4 (not counting shards)
Aether 12
Air 14
Darkness 13
Death 15
Earth 15
Entropy 15
Fire 14
Gravity 13
Life 13
Light 14
Time 14
Water 16
Total=172

Chance of getting nymphs
Divided into 2 methods
Method 1: the oracle just picks a random card
Method 2: the oracle picks a random element then a random card
Decimals are rounded to the nearest ten thousandeth

Chance of getting a nymph
Method 1: 12/172 =.0698 or 6.98%
Method 2: 12/13x(12/(172-4)) =
.923x.0714 = .0659 or 6.59%

Chance of getting a specific nymph
Method 1: 1/172 = .0058 or .58%
Method 2: 1/13x1/(X) =.0769x(X)
Aether: .0769x1/12 = .0769x.0833 =.0064 or .64%
Darkness/Gravity/Life: .0769x1/13 = .0769x.0769 =.0059 or .59%
Air/Fire/Light/Time: .0769x1/14 =.0769x.0714 =.0054 or .54%
Death/Earth/Entropy: .0769x1/15 =.0769x.0667 =.0051 or .51%
Water: .0769x1/16 = .0769x.0625 =.0048 or .48%

Method 3: Chance of an element being picked is dependant on how many cards are in that element, then a random card is picked
Aether: 12/172x1/12 =.0698x.0833 =.0058 or .58%
Darkness/Gravity/Life: 13/172x1/13 =.0756x.0769 =.0058 or .58%
Air/Fire/Light/Time: 14/172x1/14 =.0814x.0714 =.0058 or .58%
Death/Earth/Entropy: 15/172x1/15 =.0872x.0667 =.0058 or .58%
Water: 16/172x1/16 =.093x.0625 =.0058 or .58%
(Well that was a waste of time, should've stopped when the first 3 matched)

This is all provided that the spin is powered by RNG/ stastics. It might be ran by other factors. IE one game had 'super rare' events that would only trigger at a certain time at a certain place. Also some cards might have an added 'weight' to them which would make that card more likelier to be chosen the other cards. Maybe a certain nymph can only be won once a day, among all people, and once won is removed from the spin.

[bojengles77]

Really cool stuff, it's nice to see some solid math to make people who complain that "the oracle is bugged" stop(just because they have no nymphs, it must be bugged...). I mean Troh ( I think it was him) said he was quitting the game if he didn't get a nymph soon. If you didn't get one yet, you're just a little unlucky, the odds aren't worse for you, you just got the short end of the stick or you aren't going to the oracle every day.

[johannhowitzer]

It also depends whether Zanz decided to weight the cards.  6.98%/6.59% seems pretty high, that's better than one in 20.

[bojengles77]

well the oracle has been around about 2 months now, I believe, so about 65 days lets say. with about a 6.5% chance, the chance of you having no nymphs having gone to the oracle every day is:
.935^65 = 1.27%

And according to my very limited knowledge of statistics, and great love of making outlandish guesses, I think that the average amount of nymphs with this distribution should be about 4 after 60 days. I, myself, have 6 nymphs and according to our forum poll, the majority of people are in the 0-5 range, peaking around 3. I'm not sure if 6.5 % is exactly correct, but something around this seems to be a reasonable guess. Its probably not something like 1 or 2%, for all those complaining they don't have a nymph yet.

[johannhowitzer]

Will the nymph be given as a card every time it shows up at all?  Other cards can show up but you don't always win them.

[bojengles77]

Will the nymph be given as a card every time it shows up at all?  Other cards can show up but you don't always win them.

yes, when nymphs appear as the card, you always get them. Other cards tend to serve as a basis for your daily fortune, and you don't reallly care that you get a lightning or a flying weapon most of the time anyways.

[Robinson218]

well the oracle has been around about 2 months now, I believe, so about 65 days lets say. with about a 6.5% chance, the chance of you having no nymphs having gone to the oracle every day is:
.935^65 = 1.27%

And according to my very limited knowledge of statistics, and great love of making outlandish guesses, I think that the average amount of nymphs with this distribution should be about 4 after 60 days. I, myself, have 6 nymphs and according to our forum poll, the majority of people are in the 0-5 range, peaking around 3. I'm not sure if 6.5 % is exactly correct, but something around this seems to be a reasonable guess. Its probably not something like 1 or 2%, for all those complaining they don't have a nymph yet.

Yo whatever, Bojengles77 sucks at math so why are we even listening to him

[bojengles77]

Yo whatever, Bojengles77 sucks at math so why are we even listening to him

haha, win.

+karma

[dragonhuman]

It also depends whether Zanz decided to weight the cards.  6.98%/6.59% seems pretty high, that's better than one in 20.

this is just math done for basic everything has equal chances. And that is the chance of getting a nymph of any element, getting a praticular nymph is about half a percent

[johannhowitzer]

Oh yeah, I know.  Wasn't undercutting you, just adding a potential extra variable. 

[Scaredgirl]

I did some cleaning up.