Optimizing the Speedbow-Unstable Gas vs Elite Wyrm

[BluePriest]

Im working on optimizing the speedbow for ai3 for fastest ttw, and Ive got a question for the community. Elite Wyrm or UG?

When Using Dragoons toolset, in a 25 card deck with 5 of them being towers (since I have 5 precogs just did it like that) It is likely to be my 10th card. I get a ttw of 5-6 on avg.
If I go first...
Turn 1-Draw 7 cards.
Turn 2-Draw card 8
Turn 3-Draw card 9
Turn 4-Draw card 10-Wyrm does 5 dmg
Turn 5-Wyrm does 5/10 dmg-total 10/15
Turn 6-Wyrm does 5/10 dmg-total 15/20/25

So It has a potential of doing 25 dmg by turn 6.

Meanwhile, with UG...
Turn 1-Draw 7 cards.
Turn 2-Draw card 8
Turn 3-Draw card 9
Turn 4-Draw card 10-Play UG
Turn 5-Draw card 11-Ignite-20 dmg


Now, if I go SECOND

With Wyrm
Turn 1-Draw 8 cards.
Turn 2-Draw card 9
Turn 3-Draw card 10-Wyrm does 5 dmg
Turn 4-Wyrm does 5/10 dmg-total 10/15
Turn 5-Wyrm does 5/10 dmg-total 15/20/25
Turn 6-Wyrm does 5/10 dmg-total 20/25/30/35

I have a total possible dmg output of 35 dmg.

With UG
Turn 1-Draw 8 cards.
Turn 2-Draw card 9
Turn 3-Draw card 10-Play UG
Turn 4-Ignite UG


After thoughts
Wyrms ability cost 2  and since this is a speedbow, quanta is tight.
Fire golem uses 5 (although some use 2 minor phoenixes). Ignite brings the total  to 6
Aside from pillars, UG is the only permanent, Im GUESSING making it more likely to get destroyed/stolen
A reflective shield makes UG worthless, however, it goes through every other shield
Dmg reducing, and hit% shields lower wyrms effectiveness a lot.

What are peoples thoughts. Most people have a pretty good understanding oh Speedbows, and their quanta distribution. What seems more effecient for ai3?

[Sir Valimont]

This is not a pure damage equation; Unstable Gas also deals damage to creatures ... so if you're fighting a deck that spams 1-hitpoint creatures, UG is undoubtably better. Seems like a hard comparison to make purely mathematically.

[BluePriest]

This is not a pure damage equation; Unstable Gas also deals damage to creatures ... so if you're fighting a deck that spams 1-hitpoint creatures, UG is undoubtably better. Seems like a hard comparison to make purely mathematically.

The goal is ttw, nothing more. So killing the opponents creature is insignificant. Thanks for pointing that out. I wasnt quite clear.

[Dragoon]

Actually, my toolset handles Rainbow decks somewhat weakly because of the inherent probability crapshoot of even usage of cards with the same number of copies.  Technically, in that deck order, all cards with the same number of copies are interchangeable.  So although it may be listed 10th, it can technically be changed out with any other card that has the same number of copies.  Using the Draw Probability Calculator will give you a better idea of when you would draw it.  At 10 cards drawn, you'd only have a 40% chance of drawing a Wyrm/UG if there is only 1 copy.  You'd actually have to draw 13 cards before you broke the 50% probability mark.

So with that considered, more often than not, you'll be drawing it towards the end of your game.  UG does 20 damage in 2 turns while Wrym does 15 damage in 2 turns.  If you happen to draw the Air card earlier, then Wyrm can out-damage UG.  I'd say go with the Wyrm.

PS: Though now that I think about it, the nice thing with UG is that bypasses almost all shields.  So you have to weigh out damage potential vs damage diversity.

[BluePriest]

Actually, my toolset handles Rainbow decks somewhat weakly because of the inherent probability crapshoot of even usage of cards with the same number of copies.  Technically, in that deck order, all cards with the same number of copies are interchangeable.  So although it may be listed 10th, it can technically be changed out with any other card that has the same number of copies.  Using the Draw Probability Calculator will give you a better idea of when you would draw it.  At 10 cards drawn, you'd only have a 40% chance of drawing a Wyrm/UG if there is only 1 copy.  You'd actually have to draw 13 cards before you broke the 50% probability mark.

So with that considered, more often than not, you'll be drawing it towards the end of your game.  UG does 20 damage in 2 turns while Wrym does 15 damage in 2 turns.  If you happen to draw the Air card earlier, then Wyrm can out-damage UG.  I'd say go with the Wyrm.

PS: Though now that I think about it, the nice thing with UG is that bypasses all shields.  So you have to weigh out damage-potential vs diversity of damage.

The nice thing about UG though, is technically, if its the finishing blow, it only does it in 1 turn since you never end your second turn.

for ex. I lay down UG on turn 3. My monsters get the opponent down to 6HP at the end of that turn. next turn,  I ignite UG. Technically, by the current ttw, I won in 3 turns.


BTW, i was aware of that flaw in your toolset. So since i wanted a SPECIFIC card, I made 5 cards towers, and then 19 cards fractals just for the heck of it, and made only 1 card the wyrm. i do believe that should alleviate that right?

[Dragoon]

Ah, I didn't realize that was how ttw was calculated.  Interesting.  Then in that case, I think the UG has enough merits to go with it over Wyrm.  The odds of you drawing both a Destroyer and UG is pretty low.  But even if you did, the odds of you drawing 3 Supernovas in 13 cards is ~72%.

BTW, i was aware of that flaw in your toolset. So since i wanted a SPECIFIC card, I made 5 cards towers, and then 19 cards fractals just for the heck of it, and made only 1 card the wyrm. i do believe that should alleviate that right?

Yes, that will give you a better idea of your average draw order.  The probability is still only 40%, but it may be that that is the highest probability compared with the other cards' probabilities.

[BluePriest]

Ah, I didn't realize that was how ttw was calculated.  Interesting.  Then in that case, I think the UG has enough merits to go with it over Wyrm.  The odds of you drawing both a Destroyer and UG is pretty low.  But even if you did, the odds of you drawing 3 Supernovas in 13 cards is ~72%.

Yeah, cause it is based off of what the game says is the amount of turns at the end of the game. If you dont ever end your final turn, then it doesnt count it. I sorta feel like this is a loophole in the ttw though, and should be changed. But thats my humble opinion lol.

[lukce]

I would definitely choose unstable gas, cause I play a pegasus. Two diving creatures in 1 deck is not balanced...

[Tea is good]

If ttw is your only goal, go for unstable gas, because if you have to spend 3 turns to make a wyrm = UG then you've already failed.