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Delreich

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Best rare win story https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=712.msg6993#msg6993
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:04 pm »

Level 1 deck is composed of about 13/14 pillars of various types and 47/48 other cards chosen randomly between all non upgraded cards (including rares).
So basically, the chances for a pulv to be in this deck are about 35%.
Then, as it is a very mixed build, your chances to win something during the (unique) spin must be somewhere near 10%
And the chances for this card to be a pulv (and not another one from its deck) are clearly far below 1%.
Why below 1%? If there's about 50 eligible cards to chose from, shouldn't there be about a 2% chance for any one of them? That should make it about 1 in 1500, if the first two numbers are accurate.

Evil Hamster

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Best rare win story https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=712.msg6994#msg6994
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:04 pm »

I just beat Rainbow and won on the spinners (from one game!):

1 Explosion
1 Congeal
1 Improved Steal

 ;D

Offline jmizzle7

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Best rare win story https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=712.msg6995#msg6995
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:04 pm »

@ the discussion on probability: who cares? He got super freaky lucky. The end. :D

Sigh

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Best rare win story https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=712.msg6996#msg6996
« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:04 pm »

I've even gotten a Morning Glory off the L1 a while back, I wonder if I still have it? (Probly not XD)

Best rare win story https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=712.msg6997#msg6997
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2009, 10:10:04 pm »

Why below 1%? If there's about 50 eligible cards to chose from, shouldn't there be about a 2% chance for any one of them? That should make it about 1 in 1500, if the first two numbers are accurate.
If it worked that way, the chances to win would be far too low, as you suspect.
The real algorithm is a bit more complex:
1. Pick a random card in your opponent's deck
2. If it's a pillar, go back to 1
3. Security mechanism (for builds that are composed of pillars only) : if, after 10 random picks, you still get a pillar then keep it
4. Store card in variable card1.
5. Repeat steps 1 to 4, until you have filled 4 variables
6. Now the spinning starts for 3 rounds but you only pick cards in [card1, card2, card3, card4]. This ways, the chances to pick 3 times the same one are much higher.
I'm not very good at understanding this, but does that mean that it's easier to win cards from AI1 than most any other AI?

 

anything
blarg: