Mulling Over the Mulligan

[Wu_Li_Mammoth]

The auto-mulligan currently in testing has some notable effect on how you might chose to tune your deck. I came up with some numbers to adjust for the change.

The mulligan only draws one extra time, so while it won't pump your deck for pillars, it squares your chances of drawing none (which is good!). I've created a chart showing your chances of drawing a nil hand (no pillars) based on your deck size and pillar count:

30 Card Decks (Current->w/Mulligan)
[/li] 6 pillars  (16.4%->2.6%)[/li] 7 pillars (12.7%->1.6%)[/li] 8 pillars (8.8%->.8%)[/li] 9 pillars (5.4%->.3%)[/li] 10 pillars (4.6%->.2%)[/li][/list]
---

40 Card Decks (Current->w/Mulligan)
[/li] 6 pillars (29.1%->8.4%)[/li] 8 pillars (18.1%->3.2%)[/li] 10 pillars (9.6%->.9%)[/li] 12 pillars (6.1%->.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (2.9%-> .01%)[/li][/list]
---

50 Card decks (Current->w/Mulligan)
[/li] 10 pillars (18.7%->3.4%)[/li] 12 pillars (11.7%->1.4%)[/li] 14 pillars (8.4%->.7%%)[/li] 16 pillars (4.4%->.2%)[/li] 18 pillars (3.6%->.1%)[/li][/list]
Some things to keep in mind:

The mulligan does *not* increase your chances of drawing pillars after the opening hand. Therefore it affects decks that need very few pillars much more than high quanta decks.[/li] It only helps you draw 0 pillars less often, and it doesn't help you to get more than 1.[/li] Other cards that cost no quanta (photons, sundials, unupgraded novas, etc) count as a playable card as far as the mulligan is concerned. If you draw one of these and no pillars, you don't get a free redraw.[/li]

Adjust your deck accordingly.

Wu Li out.

[Astaroth]

Very interesting numbers. Thanks! 

[Wu_Li_Mammoth]

Cards that count against your mulligan:

Nova - unupgraded only
Photon/Ray of Light
Immolate/Cremation
Holy Flash - upgraded only
Spark/Ball of Lightning
Dagger/Dirk
Sundials - upgraded only

These cards are not worse per se, but many of them are not useful on the first turn. This means that you're reducing your chances of getting a mulligan because of these cards.

Cards that have actually *improved* because of the mulligan are the quanta generating creatures, such as Brimstone Eaters, Damselflies, and Gnomish Gemcutters. Why are they better? Because you can replace pillars with these cards, and increase your average open hand quanta draw.

[Kamietsu]

The part where you say it only prevents you from drawing 0 pillars isn't right. It helps with drawing pillars, but it is not a sure thing to prevent it. You could still draw 0 playable cards in your hand, though the mulligan feature makes that a lot less likely.

[Scaredgirl]

Cards that count against your mulligan:

Nova - unupgraded only
Photon/Ray of Light
Immolate/Cremation
Holy Flash - upgraded only
Spark/Ball of Lightning
Dagger/Dirk
Sundials - upgraded only

Here's a fun fact: Mulligan nerfed every single one of those cards.

The more of those cards you have on your deck, the worse opening hands you will draw (more opening hands with no pillars in them)

So kids, take that into consideration when building those decks.

[Kamietsu]

Cards that count against your mulligan:

Nova - unupgraded only
Photon/Ray of Light
Immolate/Cremation
Holy Flash - upgraded only
Spark/Ball of Lightning
Dagger/Dirk
Sundials - upgraded only

Here's a fun fact: Mulligan nerfed every single one of those cards.

The more of those cards you have on your deck, the worse opening hands you will draw (more opening hands with no pillars in them)

So kids, take that into consideration when building those decks.

I heavily disagree with the nerfing part. Most decks who carry those have something built around those cards. Nova on turn one is a good thing. So is spark and photon. Immolation is a good thing to have on turn one because most decks that have those usually have some small critter to use it on that they can play next turn. Sundials help, and dagger is free damage like photon, only less easily destroyed. Holy Flash is the only one there that could not help much on turn one.

[Cisco]

Cards that count against your mulligan:

Nova - unupgraded only
Photon/Ray of Light
Immolate/Cremation
Holy Flash - upgraded only
Spark/Ball of Lightning
Dagger/Dirk
Sundials - upgraded only

Here's a fun fact: Mulligan nerfed every single one of those cards.

The more of those cards you have on your deck, the worse opening hands you will draw (more opening hands with no pillars in them)

So kids, take that into consideration when building those decks.

I disagree, non of thise cards were nerfed. Just all other cards witch end up givin you a mulligen have been improved.

[Wu_Li_Mammoth]

The part where you say it only prevents you from drawing 0 pillars isn't right. It helps with drawing pillars, but it is not a sure thing to prevent it. You could still draw 0 playable cards in your hand, though the mulligan feature makes that a lot less likely.

fix't

[Kamietsu]

The part where you say it only prevents you from drawing 0 pillars isn't right. It helps with drawing pillars, but it is not a sure thing to prevent it. You could still draw 0 playable cards in your hand, though the mulligan feature makes that a lot less likely.

fix't

The part where you say it only prevents you from drawing 0 pillars isn't right. It helps with drawing pillars, but it is not a sure thing to prevent it. You could still draw 0 playable cards in your hand, though the mulligan feature makes that a lot less likely.

What exactly did you fix? O.o

[Wu_Li_Mammoth]

The one tiny line that sort of indirectly implied an idea that was inconsistent with the entire rest of my post.

Thanks for calling me out though 

[vrt]

Cards that count against your mulligan:

Nova - unupgraded only
Photon/Ray of Light
Immolate/Cremation
Holy Flash - upgraded only
Spark/Ball of Lightning
Dagger/Dirk
Sundials - upgraded only

Here's a fun fact: Mulligan nerfed every single one of those cards.

The more of those cards you have on your deck, the worse opening hands you will draw (more opening hands with no pillars in them)

So kids, take that into consideration when building those decks.

Why nerfed? You'll get the exact same hands you would get right now.

[Wu_Li_Mammoth]

Swords haven't ever been nerfed, but you don't see us charging into war with them any more.

The rules are changing, and your opponent, who may not use the cards that are hampering his mulligan chances, will benefit from the change while you do not (if you use those cards).

That being said, it's not a very big difference. I mean, i'll still use cremates and RoLs and kami can keep using daggers, since he seems to think they're not terrible, and for the most part it won't make any difference at all.