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Offline Amilir

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg132118#msg132118
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2010, 01:28:59 am »
'Probability of drawing those cards: 1/30^8'
BZZZZT
This is where the probability gets complicated, or I'd have done it.  That's the probability of getting those exact cards in that exact order, both unnecessary.  You also messed up the quanta generation.

Mastermind79

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg132131#msg132131
« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2010, 02:05:40 am »
'Probability of drawing those cards: 1/30^8'
BZZZZT
This is where the probability gets complicated, or I'd have done it.  That's the probability of getting those exact cards in that exact order, both unnecessary.  You also messed up the quanta generation.
:(

And I just noticed, I forgot to add the extra +5 attack probability from Pandemonium in my post, dunno if it was in just the post or in the equation as well...

Offline Xinef

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg132317#msg132317
« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2010, 09:38:24 am »
For OTK deja vu is not necessary as you are only able to use it second turn. On the other hand you need the mutant to be a crimson dragon.

And yes, the probabilities use a wrong formula.
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Kurohami

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg149982#msg149982
« Reply #27 on: September 01, 2010, 03:45:54 am »
Wow, that's a lot of work wasted on nothing. I hate probabilities, for a good reason. It makes my head hurts.

Offline ~Napalm

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg184282#msg184282
« Reply #28 on: October 25, 2010, 08:07:37 am »
Lolz at this post. I like :D

And at Jmdt. I managed 31 the other day. 3x BLight + 2x Cremation + Crimson + Destroyer + Gavel
    18 quanta - 10 - 5 = 3 Fire Quanta (random 2 for gavel)[/li] 12 + 7 + 7 + 5 = 31 [/li]

That's the best I can do D:

Must... get... luckier!
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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234700#msg234700
« Reply #29 on: December 28, 2010, 08:27:31 am »
Asked in chat, they said resurrecting this thread would be better than making a new one.

One small problem with implosion's set up, unupped entropy dragon only has 10 attack, and you can't mutate into upgraded cards.  If the mutant was a crimson dragon, then deja vu costs fire quanta.  It still works, but you have to have fire mark, and draw a fourth quanta tower.

Absolute most damage possible first turn (highly derived  from implosions kickass work):
You get 8 cards in opening hand.
Oracle grants you a pet.
You have entropy mark.
You draw:
-Regular mutation
-3x quantum tower
-chaos seed
-3x pandemonium

The quantum towers give you nine entropy quanta.
The mutated pet gives you a crimson dragon (12|3), +5 (17).  Two entropy quanta spent (7 remaining).
The chaos seed twins the dragon, giving it +5 (22|13), (17 & 22).  One entropy quanta spent (6 remaining).
The pandemonium twins both dragons, giving all +5 (22|13 & 27|18), (17 & 22*2 & 27).  Two entropy quanta spent (4 remaining).
The pandemonium twins all four dragons, giving all +5 (22|13, 27|18*2, 32|23), (17 & 22*3 & 27*3 & 32).
The pandemonium twins all 8 dragons, giving all +5 (22|13, 27|18*3, 32|23*3, 37|28), (17 & 22*4 & 27*6 & 32*4 & 37). 
Total damage = 17 + 22*4 + 27*6 + 32*4 + 37 = 432.

The odds of this happening are as follows:
The odds of drawing exactly three pandemonium, assuming 6 in deck, is 14.520200412614%
The odds of drawing exactly one chaos seed, assuming 6 in deck, is 35.4801061007958%
The odds of drawing exactly one mutation, assuming 6 in deck, is also 35.4801061007958%
The odds of drawing exactly three quantum towers, assuming they make up the rest of the 30 card deck, is 32.2054357436666%

When drawing 8 cards at random from this deck, there are 30*29*28*27*26*25*24*23*22 possible opening hands.  The number of successes is difficult to calculate.  You need to draw:
1 chaos seed (one success)
AND
one mutation (one success)
AND
three pandemonium (6*5*4 successes)
AND
three quantum pillars (12*11*10 successes).

These cards can come in any order, multiplying the number of successes by the number of orders 8 cards can go in, or 8!, or 40,320.  Multiplied by the number of successes due to multiple cards, you get 6,386,688,000 possible successes.

The odds of drawing all eight cards in your opening hand is the second number divided by the first, or 6,386,688,000/5.19177859 × 10^12, or 00.123015415%.  Not as unlikely as you'd think.

The odds of three consecutive quantum towers giving 9 entropy quanta is 1/12^9, or 00.0000000193806699%.

The odds of getting a successful mutant from mutation is 4/10
AND
The odds of getting a crimson dragon is 1/82
AND
The odds of getting +5 is 1/5
So the total odds of mutating what you need is 4/(10*82*5), or 00.0975609756%

Pandemonium has a total of 14 things it can do. Drain Life, Freeze, Ice Bolt, Fire Bolt, Lobotomize, Reverse Time, Parallel Universe, Gravity Pull, Poison, sniper, lightning, shockwave.  It has a 1/14 chance to PU each dragon each time.  It needs to PU 15 times.  The odds of this are (1/14)^15.  There is a 1/5 chance of the attack power getting+5, the odds of this happening 15 times are (1/5)^15.  The odds of both of these happening are 2.10634448 × 10^-28, or 00.0000000000000000000000000210634448%

The odds of getting a pet from the oracle are unknown, and will be represented by X.

The odds of mutating a quintessence'd dragon are not factored in.  I'll do this when it's not 4 A.M.

The total odds of getting 432 damage first turn are .000000000000000000000000000210634448*.000975609756*.000000000193806699*.00123015415*X, or (4.89929798 × 10^-44)X, or 00.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000489929798%*X

The odds of this are disgustingly low.

Statistically, you should play 2.04110875 × 10^36, or 2,041,108,750,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 games before this ever happens.

I've shown all my work, feel free to correct me.

chenqu1989

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234761#msg234761
« Reply #30 on: December 28, 2010, 01:02:37 pm »
Gl1tch you've done a great work!
as a mathmatica student i've never thought of this

thanks for your calculating!

Offline Raptor6789

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234815#msg234815
« Reply #31 on: December 28, 2010, 03:00:25 pm »
lets say this happens. you get a ruby dragon from the oracle. you draw enough pillars for an improved mutation. you play a photon and mutate it. it turns into... something big. and it has the deja vu ability.  :D

chenqu1989

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234841#msg234841
« Reply #32 on: December 28, 2010, 03:53:26 pm »
Gl1tch said that
【 The odds of drawing all eight cards in your opening hand is the second number divided by the first, or 6,386,688,000/5.19177859 × 10^12, or 00.123015415%.  Not as unlikely as you'd think.】

what i calculate is :you have 30cards ,6a,6b,6c and 12d.
you draw 8 ,the probility of you drawed 1a 1b 3c and 3d.
so it's C(6,1)*C(6,1)*C(6,3)*C(12,3)/C(30,8)=0.027063391381232460692730557798024

which is almost 2.7% really high isn't it?

chenqu1989

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234860#msg234860
« Reply #33 on: December 28, 2010, 04:23:52 pm »
what i fanally calculated was:
i count there was 79creature and except 5/5 so the probility  is 1/78 to change into a fire dragon

Pandemonium has 12 not 14 so it was 1/60^15
all in all it is

0.027063391381232460692730557798024 *
0.000000000193806699 *
0.00102564103 *
0.00000000000000000000000000212682249
=1.14413595 × 10^-41X
or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000114413595*X

ignore X
you may play about 8.74022008 × 10^40
or 98740220080000000000000000000000000000000 games
to get it

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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234870#msg234870
« Reply #34 on: December 28, 2010, 04:35:46 pm »
Gl1tch, there's only one problem with your setup.  Mutation (and PU'd Mutations) have a range of +0 to +4 Attack/HP, making +5 an impossibility.
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Re: most damage in first,second turn and third turn https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7778.msg234881#msg234881
« Reply #35 on: December 28, 2010, 04:53:09 pm »
Ah, now you've gone and made my head implode...
If anyone gets a screenshot of that happening- that .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000489929798% chance - then we will know anything can happen on the internet. Warms my heart really.

 

anything
blarg: