just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance

[teffy]

o.o *stumbles back from his desk in the chat room*

Uh.. GG, it was far worse than that when I calculated it.

0.000000000000000128% (if you went first)

versus your

0.000000000000696%

No.
Use the Calculator for Hypergeometric Distribution
 (http://stattrek.com/Tables/Hypergeometric.aspx)

pop size =30, sample size =16  , number of success in pop =12, number of successes = 0.

I hope I understand it correctly, GG drew a tower, and then were 13 cards left in the deck.
Otherwise: sample size = 17.

Mulligan Chance: <1,6% (7 cards)

Result: 1.05 * 10^(-6)*1.6*10^(-2) = 1,68* 10^(-6) % = 0,00000168%

[SnoWeb]

A day in chat:
[16:10:55] Jen-i: anyone else for CL?
[...]
[16:12:45] xn0ize: i would , but i quitted :\
[16:12:58] Jen-i: how come zn0ize?
[16:13:23] xn0ize: every time im close to win.. LOSs... i got tired of it
[16:13:26] xn0ize: so not playing CL
[16:13:46] Tarias: this ELO system is so weird... I'm 4-2 in the BL, and yet there are alot of 1-0 people that are above me in the rankings..
[...]
[16:14:13] TimerClock14: @tarias, once you start playing more and winning more, they will be below you
[...]
[16:14:43] SnoWeb: xnoize: jen-i had the same senario - u should try against her you have a fair chance
[...]
[16:15:21] SnoWeb: luck might turn
[16:15:47] Jen-i: sure did for me - I started of 1-4
[...]
[16:16:11] xn0ize: JEn i
[16:16:17] xn0ize: i had 10 cards left
[16:16:28] xn0ize: 7 of them couldve of save me
[16:16:30] xn0ize: and let me win
[16:16:32] xn0ize: BUT NO
[16:16:36] xn0ize: i drew the wrong card
[16:16:38] xn0ize: and lost
[16:16:43] vinvick3714: I started out 2-7, now I'm up to 4-7
[16:16:45] xn0ize: that drived me crazy :\
[...]
[16:16:59] vinvick3714: so it's going alright for me
[...]
[16:17:24] SnoWeb: xnoize: look at that: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,19343.0.html (the present thread)
[...]
[16:17:32] TimerClock14: hiya!
[16:17:58] xn0ize: SnoWeb
[16:18:04] xn0ize: if i drew another sword
[16:18:06] xn0ize: id kill you
[16:18:08] xn0ize: BUT NO
[16:18:29] SnoWeb: I know - I was really surprised to win that one
[16:18:35] xn0ize: you know what?
[16:18:37] xn0ize: JEn-i
[16:18:40] Tiko: *searching for enemies*
[16:18:42] xn0ize: lets fight
[16:18:48] Jen-i: no what?
[16:19:00] Jen-i: sure

[jumpoffduck]

No.
Use the Calculator for Hypergeometric Distribution
 (http://stattrek.com/Tables/Hypergeometric.aspx)

pop size =30, sample size =16  , number of success in pop =12, number of successes = 0.

I hope I understand it correctly, GG drew a tower, and then were 13 cards left in the deck.
Otherwise: sample size = 17.

Mulligan Chance: <1,6% (7 cards)

Result: 1.05 * 10^(-6)*1.6*10^(-2) = 1,68* 10^(-6) % = 0,00000168%

No.
What you're calculating is the probability that GG did not draw any towers in her first 16 cards. However, on her 17th draw, she still had a 2/14 chance of drawing yet another nonpillar, so you have to multiply your result by 12/14.

[teffy]

Ok, you are right.
This would even be worse for GG, so I didn´t mention it.

[lukce]

Now this is some bad luck.....I wish this never happens to me xD