Fail Draw - Math people whats the percentage?

[PlayerOa]

what deck did you use Mr Blonde?

It's my modded nymphbow that i use for FG farming. I prefer this out of all my other decks and percentage wise runs the same as every other top deck i've played (CCYB, Puppy's, etc). With that said this is just my personal deck that i like to play so no complaining to me if you use it and you think it sucks.

What also makes this situation interesting is how often can you actually go 36 turns, not play a pillar and actually survive. This situation hypothetically could have happened  8-10 times before but who has actually made it to this point? Also to make it sicker i would have had to play either Elidinis or Decay. The other 21 FG's undoubtedly kill me before i even come close to this point and Osiris who i could survive long enough against only has effectively 56 cards to last 28 turns (of course he can rewind but i would blow up his eternities to prevent that).

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500 500 5if 5if 5p0 5v8 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6rn 6rn 6rn 6rn 6rn 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u7 71c 749 74b 77f 77f 7ai 7ak 7dq 7gp 7gp 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 80h 80h 80h 80j

Won't upped sundials (zero cost) explain this a bit?
But whatever, nice "milestone"

[zse]

Actually you couldn't have used 36 turns to get to the position on first post. Even if you didn't use Sundials or Hourglasses for card draw, you'd be there faster. More likely it took you only some 25 turns to go down from 48 to 13 cards while Elidnis went down from 112 to 59, those things possible only within 23-28 turns.

Another thing, the probability of getting mulligan isn't ~20% because you have those upped Sundials, 0-cost cards, in your deck. The correct p(mulligan) =~ 0,107 =~ 1/9
*edit* wrong numbers used   The correctly counted p(mulligan) =~ 0,0913 =~ 1/11

[MrBlonde]

Actually you couldn't have used 36 turns to get to the position on first post. Even if you didn't use Sundials or Hourglasses for card draw, you'd be there faster. More likely it took you only some 25 turns to go down from 48 to 13 cards while Elidnis went down from 112 to 59, those things possible only within 23-28 turns.

Another thing, the probability of getting mulligan isn't ~20% because you have those upped Sundials, 0-cost cards, in your deck. The correct p(mulligan) =~ 0,107 =~ 1/9

Ahhh yes the sundials and HG's. I completely forgot about those. Still doesn't change the non-pillars in the first 35 cards though.

[QuantumT]

Yeah the odds were generally based on the number of cards as opposed to the number of turns. My mulligan calculations were based on the QTs being the only 0-cost cards in the deck.

For anyone who's interested, my thread on probability can be found here (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,16010.0.html).

[Raptor6789]

i have bad draws all the time... (but my odds arent as bad as yours)
i hate how if you have a bad starting hand, it just snowballs and you end up losing the game.

[teffy]

Bad draws all the time can mean: bad deck.

[QuantumT]

Any tips on how to play the deck? I've been looking for another deck to add to my FG rotation, and yours looks interesting.

[MrBlonde]

Any tips on how to play the deck? I've been looking for another deck to add to my FG rotation, and yours looks interesting.

Not much to it really. Typically a quinted Purple nymph = win. The other nymphs really are just there to increase damage. CCYB works much better against Scorpio and Seism but i feel this deck is more consistant against other FG's.

This deck does get bad draws though (9 pillars 6 novas in 48 cards + upped dials will mean pillarless draws). I used to run it without the mindgate and the 6 dials but ATM i kind of like how it works right now. This is a pretty odd deck though because it really is a mash up of a bunch of other decks. Having 3 different shields and 5 SoG's may be overkill for some but i find the Jade Shield critical vs Decay/Octane and the Gravity shield although very situational is worth the one extra card for me.

[Zubon]

While we're working out odds, my deck of the moment has 12/40 pillars, and I just had back-to-back games with no pillars in my opening 8.  Woo!  By my quick math, there is a 4% chance of having the first 8 cards with no pillars from that deck, so assuming two mulligans, that is a 1/374825 chance.  (I probably did not get either mulligan, if I understand how that works, because the deck has upgraded Sundials.)

[CrazyJay94]

I dont understand any of this math stuff. the only thing i do is the QI.

[Raptor6789]

Bad draws all the time can mean: bad deck.

im using decks that i find here in the forums for ai3 and t50 farming.
everyone else says that they work fine.

[geekz_always_win]

Sorry for reviving this, but I have a fail-draw of my own:



I had 5 pillars and 5 pendulums, the classic USEM.

Chance of 7 turns no tower is .38 percent.