Fail Draw - Math people whats the percentage?

[MrBlonde]

Sooo, i decided to farm FG's today a bit and came upon this scenario. I ended up not pulling any of my 9 pillars in the first 35 turns in my 48 card deck. If i had actually not quinted my lava golem at the beginning i might have actually won since i could have lobo'd all 3 pufferfish early in the game.

So what's the percentage of this happening?




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[Kamietsu]

I don't know the exact percentages, but it's low. Real low, especially with the mulligan in the game.

[Dragoon]

Well according to the Hypergeometric Calculator, odds of drawing 1 out of 9 Towers in the first 35 cards out of a 48-card deck is 99.999957367%.  So subtracting that from 100% gives you a 0.000042633% chance of pulling that kind of feat off, and that's not considering the auto-mulligan.  That's pretty impressive MrBlonde.

[Malignant]

Gratz for doing the slightly-impossible ?

[MrBlonde]

Well according to the Hypergeometric Calculator, odds of drawing 1 out of 9 Towers in the first 35 cards out of a 48-card deck is 99.999957367%.  So subtracting that from 100% gives you a 0.000042633% chance of pulling that kind of feat off, and that's not considering the auto-mulligan.  That's pretty impressive MrBlonde.

ummmm wow. That's pretty ridiculous.  And actually it's out of the first 36 cards since card 36 ended up being the tower. Thanks for doing the math (or using the calculator, embarrassed to say i have only briefly gone through that page).

[TimerClock14]

thank you mrblonde, i feel so much better about the RNG now. (and I thought it only hated ....go figure?)

[TheCrazyMango]

mrblonde, seeing these odds, i now know why i lost to you in round3; the RNG and you have a special connection

[Bloodshadow]

I think it's more likely than not that the RNG code in the game glitched. I mean, really, a percentage of 0.00004% is beyond ridiculous.

[smuglapse]

It's 1 out of 2,500,000.

Statistics (as of 08/12/2020):

Elements have been played 3,577,011 times on Kongregate.com and 7,854,864 times on elementsthegame.com.
For a total of 11,431,875 games played so far.

So, I imagine this has happened a few times before.

[geekz_always_win]

It's 1 out of 2,500,000.

Statistics (as of 08/12/2020):

Elements have been played 3,577,011 times on Kongregate.com and 7,854,864 times on elementsthegame.com.
For a total of 11,431,875 games played so far.

So, I imagine this has happened a few times before.

And each time it's "played" (somebody connects) they play more than one game.

Maybe 8-10 times in all?

[QuantumT]

You taken into the chance of the first hand failing (for the mulligan), which is about 1 in 5, and you get approximately 1 in 12 million.

Would people actually be interested in a thread about how probability actually works? I'd be happy to make one if people cared.

[ISlayCasuals]

You taken into the chance of the first hand failing (for the mulligan), which is about 1 in 5, and you get approximately 1 in 12 million.

Would people actually be interested in a thread about how probability actually works? I'd be happy to make one if people cared.

cant speak for anybody else, but i would be very interested in reading that.