Chance to win Cards from AI3

[BluePriest]

1. Pick a random card in your opponent's deck
2. If it's a pillar, go back to 1
3. Security mechanism (for builds that are composed of pillars only) : if, after 10 random picks, you still get a pillar then keep it
4. Store card in variable card1.
5. Repeat steps 1 to 4, until you have filled 4 variables
6. Now the spinning starts for 3 rounds but you only pick cards in [card1, card2, card3, card4]. This ways, the chances to pick 3 times the same one are much higher.

You pretty much choose 4 random non pillar cards (chance of getting a pillar in a deck that is even 50% pillars is negligible) and a card is randomly picked each time. So what I am going to work on, and if others would like to help, is compiling a chance for each ai3 deck to win a card, and what the chances are for each card.



Before starting.... anyone have an idea of how to make an easy to use formula where we just plug in the amount of card x, and the deck size to find out the %? Im going to be crunching numbers, but theres a lot of people better than me at math here.

[Falcon4415]

This has been tried, but Jmizzle says that algorithm is outdated.

[BluePriest]

He just said in chat that its not though lol

edit I misread, he said he has no idea

[Raptor6789]

when my friend first started elements, he won a gravity pillar from an ai0. is that a low probability?

[Falcon4415]

It's a 0% probability, you don't spin against AI0. So yeah, lucky him.

[Dragoon]

Before starting.... anyone have an idea of how to make an easy to use formula where we just plug in the amount of card x, and the deck size to find out the %? Im going to be crunching numbers, but theres a lot of people better than me at math here.

Column A: Names of Cards
Column B: # of Copies of Cards
C1: =ARRAYFORMULA(B:B/SUM(B:B))  [or Bx:By where x is the first # and y is the last # in Column B]
I'm not sure if it's this simple but maybe D1 would be: =ARRAYFORMULA(C:C/4)   [or Cx:Cy like above]
Format Column C & D as %.


Column C is the % of the whole deck and Column D is the % of winning that card I think.  This doesn't account for Pillars not being picked until the 10th try though.


Edit:
I made an even easier spreadsheet.  All you have to do is paste the AI deck code from the wiki and it does the rest.  You can find it here (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AvzXeWJKVKrsdGYxOWFjdm9RVjBlV3g2QkdBN3pzT0E&hl=en&authkey=CM_Q_v8K).

[Raptor6789]

It's a 0% probability, you don't spin against AI0. So yeah, lucky him.

whoops. i meant ai1.

[BluePriest]

Amazing Dragoon!

So
Column 1=Card Code
Column 2=Name
Column 3=Amount in Deck
Column 4=???
Column 5=Chance to win the card?

Would it be possible to have 1 more row that shows the chance of getting 2 in a row on the spinner?
Even if not, that alone leaves me a lot of work to get onto

edit. it seems to have problems with some cards (mind gate, silence and phase spider to name a few. And it also doubles up the first one for some reason, but only in the name catagory, and that sets all the names 1 row behind.

[Dragoon]

Yeah, I accidentally goofed some of the formulas but they should all be better now.  Plus I got rid of all the Pillar/Tower/Pendulum codes in the Reference tab so they won't be added to the deck total.  No need to remove the Pillar/Pendulum codes from the deck codes now.

So
Column 1=Card Code
Column 2=Name
Column 3=Amount in Deck
Column 4=???
Column 5=Chance to win the card?

Column 4 is the percentage that card is to the whole deck minus Pillars & Pendulums (ie 6 Phase Shields out of 42 cards = 14.3%).  This should be the odds of that card being selected in any 1 random selection.
Column 5 is the odds of selecting that card in 1 slot of the spinner when that card is only 1 out of the 4 possibilities.

Would it be possible to have 1 more row that shows the chance of getting 2 in a row on the spinner?
Even if not, that alone leaves me a lot of work to get onto

Each spin is unrelated to the other spins.  So each card in each individual spinner has a 25% chance of being drawn.  It's like flipping a coin.  Just because you flipped heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean the 11th flip will more likely be tails.  It's still a 50-50 chance.

[TStar]

Well I've been doing some EI testing and just so happened to keep track of cards won too, so I can give some raw numbers to compare against:

Games: 75
Wins: 72
Cards: 27
1 Card Won: 23 times
2 Cards Won: 2 times
3 Cards Won: 0 times

[BluePriest]

Would it be possible to have 1 more row that shows the chance of getting 2 in a row on the spinner?
Even if not, that alone leaves me a lot of work to get onto

Each spin is unrelated to the other spins.  So each card in each individual spinner has a 25% chance of being drawn.  It's like flipping a coin.  Just because you flipped heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean the 11th flip will more likely be tails.  It's still a 50-50 chance.

Sorry, I wasnt clear,I meant getting 2 in a row on any individual spin so that you get the bonus 5  . After doing all this with winning cards, I will still be missing the data for the times I got 5 , but didnt win a card. You are great at the google doc stuff.  very very impressive

edit, eh, I think I hould focus on one thing at a time anyways lol