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Offline DemagogTopic starter

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Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79581#msg79581
« on: June 01, 2010, 04:01:02 pm »
Do you ever feel like maybe the shuffling system in the game isn't truly random? It's not something you could really notice with using an ordinary deck, but it does seem like certain cards are often close together in games (as in two or three cards away). So, just to settle the matter, why don't we test it out? It shouldn't be too difficult to do. We need a standard deck and a way to compare the drawing orders between games. Here's the deck:

Code: [Select]
6qq 6rj 6rk 6rl 6rm 6rn 6ts 6u5 710 71a 744 74c 778 77f 7ac 7al 7dg 7dn 7gk 7gs 7jo 7k1 7ms 7n5 7q0 7q8 7t4 7tb 808 80e
With this, you'll practically never have to discard, which kinda slows you down. If you use it against AI1, you should have enough healing power to last you through the entire deck. There are two cards from every element and six other cards, and each card type is the same, save the shards (weapons/towers only).

We can assign a number to each card. I shortened the names in the list just to make writing them faster.

Card order in deck (you may have to adjust the numbers if you copy this into word so that they line up).

Quantum      1         
Dirk         2
Sword         3
Gavel         4
SoD         5
SoG         6
Amethyst      7
Discord         8
Bone         9
Arsenic         10
Gravity         11
Titan         12
Stone         13
Pulverizer      14
Emerald         15
Staff         16
Burning         17
Fahrenheit      18
Sapphire         19
Poseidon      20
Light         21
Glory         22
Wind         23
Eye         24
Time         25
Eternity         26
Obsidian      27
Vampire         28
Aether         29
Electrocuter      30


Once you have copied the order of cards from a game, you can throw in the numbers that will be used for data (which I will cover in a minute). Here is an example game (I didn't finish it because it takes forever... this would be a lot easier if someone would write a program).



The "One down" columns mean one card below that card. The first number is in reference to the deck list, the second is in reference to the drawing order, the third is just the two added together (not really important but I put it in anyway). So if we look at the One Down column for the first card I drew (light tower), to get the first number I looked at the number in the "deck order" column (21), then found the card below it from the deck order list (number 22, the morning glory), then looked at how far apart they were in the drawing order (13). The second number was produced by looking at the next card drawn after the light tower (an obsidian tower), then finding the difference in the deck order (the number is positive if the card lower on the drawing order list is higher, negative if it's lower... I'm not sure if it matters if we make a number negative or positive, but I decided to differentiate between the two anyway, and I think it may be interesting to compare the total number of positives to the total number of negatives). I'm assuming from all of that information yall can figure out everything for the other columns, and the "total" column is just the sum of the other columns.

Here is what I think the final "deck order" list would look like with information from games using the drawing order "tables."



The columns are basically the same as in the drawing order table. The only difference is that they are averaged.

Like I said, this would be easier if someone wrote a program for it. I also think it would be possible to set something up in excel/spreadsheet, but I haven't used that for anything complicated in years.

Statistics aren't really my forte, which is kind of what this is. Patterns are though, so if there are any types of patterns that can be gathered from the information, I'll probably find it. If there's any way to improve what I've started, suggest it. I highly doubt that the information I'm trying to gather is the best way to observe randomness (especially since I only look at cards up to three draws away). It's just a start.

bojengles77

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79631#msg79631
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2010, 05:36:30 pm »
Before you start your data collection and analysis, it might be interesting to note that evenness in the card distribution isn't necessarily synonymous with randomness. Patterns in the data could also be due to sampling error, depending on how many samples you take (the minimum is usually around 30 samples i think, but don't quote me on that). In gathering statistical data, there are many assumptions that have to be made and confirmed, so error may also be due to incorrectly making assumptions on the nature of the data. Caveats aside, it will be interesting to see how this turns out.

Offline DemagogTopic starter

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79720#msg79720
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2010, 07:31:28 pm »
Well I originally planned on doing a hundred games. I still probably will, it will just take forever. I may just play the games and attach a file with all of the drawing order lists and let people post here which sections they will take to work on. When they finish they could attach them to their own post or e-mail them to me and I would organize it all. People could take however many they want, just try not to overlap so it would go faster (although it would reduce errors). And I don't care too much about the format as long as it's organized neatly (columns line up, basically).

That's IF anyone wants to help out. Otherwise, it's gonna take awhile.....

miniwally

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79753#msg79753
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2010, 07:53:37 pm »
Just like to tell you that it won't be truly random because (to my knowledge) true randomness doesn't exist as it will always be influenced by something else, I think this is amplified in a computer as it has to be programmed so it has to have some sort of order, interesting to see how this turns out though.

Offline DemagogTopic starter

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79764#msg79764
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2010, 08:01:03 pm »
Well you want it to be random enough that it seems random. But if two or more cards are usually close together or far apart, it's not random enough. Basically, if the data is collected and interpreted correctly, we should be able to tell if the shuffling is random enough or not.

Interestingly, I read somewhere that if you shuffle a deck seven times there is a good chance that that combination of cards has never existed before. Maybe that's not true anymore though.... cards have been around for a really long time. I'm talking about your standard 52 card deck, of course. Not Elements.

MrBlonde

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79905#msg79905
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2010, 11:25:33 pm »
Well i'll make the spreadsheet in excel for you. I've already built part of it but i'm out of time and i need to take off so i'll finish it probably later tonight or tomorrow afternoon. PM me an email address i can send it to.

Basically all you will need to do is type in the name of the card like, "quanta" or "vampire" and it should do the rest. I'll leave instructions in the spreadsheet.

Offline DemagogTopic starter

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg79909#msg79909
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2010, 11:29:43 pm »
Thanks a lot MrBlonde. You're a life saver.

dragonhuman

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg80047#msg80047
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2010, 02:03:27 am »
don't forget about the auto-mulligen, it could mess you up a little

Offline DemagogTopic starter

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg80058#msg80058
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2010, 02:16:06 am »
That's why there are about 14 cards that have no activation cost. The chance of a mulligan are extremely low. Even if they do happen, it should be the same code shuffling your deck, so the data should be unaffected.

PuppyChow

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg80361#msg80361
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2010, 03:39:03 pm »
I'll answer this for you: RNG for Elements sucks because of ActionScript.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%E2%80%93Yates_shuffle#Pseudorandom_generators:_problems_involving_state_space.2C_seeding.2C_and_usage



Read that; I'm fairly certain this is the problem with Elements.

That said, this data collection still looks interesting to see just how biased it is. I may help out if I have time.

Malduk

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg80379#msg80379
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2010, 04:50:27 pm »
In all honesty, this is something only poker sites need to worry about. 2^32 is 4,294,967,296 multiplied by number of different decks combinations is the number of combinations pseudo RNG can generate. Millions of possible shuffles will not be generated, but... who cares?
Manual data mining is rather impossible. Its much easier to just ask Zanz which RNG is he using, and then check the code.

smuglapse

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Re: Deck Shuffling https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=7323.msg80538#msg80538
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2010, 08:35:59 pm »
If this was an issue, zanzarino could possibly connect the game to http://www.random.org (http://www.random.org).

 

anything
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