Deck "Characteristic Curves" (in preliminary development)

[darkrobe]

This version of pestal sound good?

by darkrobe

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7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t8 7t9 7t9 7t9 7t9 7ta 7ta 7tb 7td 7td 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 80i 80i 80i 80i 80i 8pu

I dont use a mono Aether, what would be a good example of an upped mono aether?

I might test the upped version of this:

by darkrobe

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61s 61s 61s 61s 61s 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61v 61v 61v 61v 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 8pu

and this.

by darkrobe

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6rn 6rn 6rn 6rn 808 808 808 808 808 808 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80e 80e 80f 80f 80f 80f 80f 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 8pu

[Ekki]

This version of pestal sound good?

by Ekki

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7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t8 7t9 7t9 7t9 7t9 7ta 7ta 7tb 7td 7td 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 80i 80i 80i 80i 80i 8pu

I say +1 Dusk Mantle or no Dusk Mantle at all... Just to keep the statistics simple. I'd say +1 Dusk Mantle, since it's more mainstream. I personally have just 2 Steals and 2 Drain Lifes, just to be prepared for everything, but IDK if that's OK.

The rest of the decks seem OK to me.

[I8SumOrangesNItWasK]

Do you see how your graph went up and to the right, slowly getting more damage potential? I think something interesting you'll find is "ramp damage" decks doing the opposite (hence the term, "ramp"). They'll go more to the right first, then up. This means these decks have greater potential towards the end of the match. Examples of ramp damage are Mitosis, FFQ, Pharoah, Vultures/Schodinger's Cat, etc. Even Fractal-based decks, because it's just a curve for an average and not an acctual example.

[darkrobe]

Im going to throw up some pictures in a sec. just going to warn everyone. this will probably blow your mind.

Posted below is the characteristic curves for Damage potential and damage reduction (in percent) for the following MONO aether.

by darkrobe

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808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 80c 80c 80c 80c 80c 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80d 80f 80f 80f 80f 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 8pu

[darkrobe]

So now I have two characteristic curves (both were obtained from fighting 15 matches with each deck against AI3). Can I use the information from these curves to predict who would win in a match up between this Mono Aether Deck and this SR (neither of which was fought against in developing these curves). And the answer is... I CAN.

By adjusting the Shrieker rush damage potential by the % damage reduction of mono aether each turn, and then comparing the two DP curves (MA DP and SR adjusted DP). I predicted that on average, this Mono Aether will beat this SR on turn 9, by about 30 something damage.

Then I ran trials, 10 where i controled the mono aether and 10 where i controlled the SR. with the custom AI3 using the other deck and these were the results.

[darkrobe]

Course, this is a really simple and straight forward example. pure speed damage vs mono aether dimensional shield. it would probably get much more complicated if there was PC or CC involved. but i wanted to do this preliminary study to see what kindof potential this had as an idea.

[OldTrees]

observing.

[ElementalDearWatson]

Does this take into account how you can play your pillars/towers?  So, for example, a RoL/Hope deck could potentially start off with an attack of 6 on the first turn if you played all 6 Rays of Light, but then you could only have a maximum of 2 Towers, 2  Pendula, or one of each, meaning that the maximum  quanta you could have on the next turn would be 2.  In this particular deck that doesn't matter in terms of playing creatures, as all creatures are  , but it would affect when you can play Electrocutor, which is 5 HP a turn as well, of course, as the ability to neuter cards like Lava Golem, Steam Machine and Forest Spectre, severely cutting down the opponent's ability to cause damage.

[pikachufan2164]

A "standard" upped Pestal usually looks something like this:

by pikachufan2164

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7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7ta 7ta 7tb 7td 7td 7td 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 7um 80i 80i 80i 80i 80i 8pu

3 Vamps so that you actually draw them when you need to Fractal them (going with just 2 copies is actually quite problematic if there's already hard-hitting creatures in play by the time you successfully quanta-lock), and 13 Pends for relatively optimal quanta flow.

[darkrobe]

@pikachu fan. thanks for the deck. Ill be working more on this later when I have more time. I have to give some thought for how to take into account quanta drain and other effects like vampirism.

Does this take into account how you can play your pillars/towers?  So, for example, a RoL/Hope deck could potentially start off with an attack of 6 on the first turn if you played all 6 Rays of Light, but then you could only have a maximum of 2 Towers, 2  Pendula, or one of each, meaning that the maximum  quanta you could have on the next turn would be 2.  In this particular deck that doesn't matter in terms of playing creatures, as all creatures are  , but it would affect when you can play Electrocutor, which is 5 HP a turn as well, of course, as the ability to neuter cards like Lava Golem, Steam Machine and Forest Spectre, severely cutting down the opponent's ability to cause damage.

So maybe I should go into what I was doing when developing these curves. I was just playing the shrieker rush and the mono aether as i would normally. you know as if i wanted to win. most decks have a really set strategy, so its not hard to just follow the strategy.

then at the end of my turn (before i hit spacebar) for damage potential, i counted the amount of damage I had on the field. and for damage reduction of dimensional shield. i check to see whether:
1) i already had a dimensional shield in the shield slot (damage reduction of 100%) or
2) had a shield in my hand and the quanta to play it (damage reduction of 100%, even if i decided not to play it, i still could have if i had needed too)

If i played a creature instead of a shield and the result was that at the end of my turn i did not have a shield in the shield slot nor the quanta for a shield in my hand, I recorded that as damage reduction of 0%. Then i averaged the available damage reduction during each turn.
As you can see in the graphs, this leads to a pretty much linear rise in damage reduction % untill about turn 8, where you basically are guaranteed  to have 100% damage reduction.

Obviously a ROL/hope deck is slightly more complicated, than a shrieker rush. but generally if you want to win the match. you arent going to play all your ROL at the same time, that leaves you susceptible to CC, you play a few, and then play all but one when you have enough to fractal them. and you play hope ASAP.

[ElementalDearWatson]

then at the end of my turn (before i hit spacebar) for damage potential, i counted the amount of damage I had on the field. and for damage reduction of dimensional shield. i check to see whether:
1) i already had a dimensional shield in the shield slot (damage reduction of 100%) or
2) had a shield in my hand and the quanta to play it (damage reduction of 100%, even if i decided not to play it, i still could have if i had needed too)

I think you'd have to be a little careful with that. To take an extreme example, if you played 5  Towers on the first turn and had a Phase Shield in your hand then played the entire game never playing your shield, but drawing all of your cards, then you'd have it down that you had a damage reduction of 100% for every turn, whereas Phase Shield can only give that reduction on 18 turns.  Of course you never would play that game, but that's just an example to show how your methodology could end up skewing the results by counting some things twice or more.

As you can see in the graphs, this leads to a pretty much linear rise in damage reduction % untill about turn 8, where you basically are guaranteed  to have 100% damage reduction.

I'd definitely question that result.  Even if you've got 6 Phase Shields, it's entirely possible to have them be the last 6 cards in your deck.  You'd have to be unlucky, but it's certainly not true that the probability of you having 100% damage reduction by turn 8 is 100%.

Obviously a ROL/hope deck is slightly more complicated, than a shrieker rush. but generally if you want to win the match. you arent going to play all your ROL at the same time, that leaves you susceptible to CC, you play a few, and then play all but one when you have enough to fractal them. and you play hope ASAP.

Unless you're playing a deck which you know doesn't have Creature Control, in which case you're better off emptying your hand as much as possible.  Some of the False Gods have none, for example.  Nor could mono  or mono  affect your creatures in a way which would require keeping one of them in hand.

I'm sorry for being picky and critical.  I think what you're doing is an excellent idea, I'm just not sure you've worked out all the wrinkles yet.

[Elite arbiter]

Well, I'm not sure how much of a classic it is, but one of the decks that has been pretty successful in a number of environments is Pandebonium. I'm not sure how well it does now in the meta with things like instosis and SPlat creeping about, but its a 'domin' deck which you seem to not have as many of. ((I made a slightly modified version for upped play since war events only have unupped.))

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4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 52g 52g 52g 52g 52g 52o 52o 52o 52o 52o 52o 52q 52q 52q 52r 52r 52r 52r 52r 542 542 542 542 542

by Elite Arbiter

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4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 4vp 710 710 710 710 712 712 718 718 718 718 718 718 71a 71a 71a 71a 71b 71b 71b 71b 72i 72i 72i 72i 8pj

Original Deck (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=26731.0)