Creature Damage per round, now with math!

[LootPinata]

In the "CC? Why bother?" deck thread, it was discussed whether or not Steam Machine could be used to supplement or replace the Lava Destroyers. Some quick math revealed why the LDs were still the better choice, but I felt like it was a bit too statistical. I wanted a cleaner one-line explanation. And they say a picture is worth a thousand words, so.....

Let's track the attack strength of Lava Golems, Lava Destroyers and Steam Machines over 20 rounds:

As expected, the Steam Machine becomes stronger than the Golem after four rounds, and stronger than the Destroyer after 6 rounds.

But that's not the whole story; let's compare the total amount of damage done by each creature over the same 20 rounds:

Now this is much more interesting. Even though the Steam Machine becomes stronger faster, it will still have done less damage than the Lava Golem would have until the 9th round! It doesn't pass the Lava Destroyer in damage potential until the 13th round!

What if we compare how much quanta you spend to how much damage you get?

Sadly, at no point is the Steam Machine ever the best option for damage per quanta spent.

It's worth keeping in mind that the round numbers above aren't from the start of the game; they're from the round when the creature is first summoned. And they assume that you'll be able to buff every creature every round. So in order for the Steam Machine to be useful, you have to get it out early enough for it to attack in at least 9 rounds, it has to not be rewound or mutated or frozen or delayed, and you have to be able to pay for each of those 9 rounds.

TLDR: You're probably better off with the Lava Destroyer.

(I can use this spreadsheet to analyze other buff-able creatures, if anyone wants a comparison for their own decks. I'd also like to extend this to figure out the effects of things like Fire Bucklers and Thorn Carapaces, to determine when the Steam Machine's extra health makes it a better option. Not sure how to best accomplish that yet.)

Edit: Tweaked numbers for accuracy.

[teffy]

Ah, I see you know quadratic and linear functions.
Although these diagrams are ´nice´,they don´t give good reasons for the decision between Lava Golem and Steam Machine.

I think these things are more important:

1) colors.
water/fire vs fire/earth. And it´s important, which of these colors you need to play the creature and which you need to let it grow.

For most Rainbow decks, Lava Golem is a better choice, because they use Ice Shield and only little earth cards. You could decide for Steam Machine, if you use e.g Titanium Shield + Earthquake,Enchant...
And it may be important, if you take other fire cards, if you take little Quantum Towers and many novas, or the other way round.

2) Health.
Lava Golems can be easily destroyed, when they are not big.
 Steam Engine comes with enough health.

[jmizzle7]

Steam Machine also has more synergy with Rage Potion than Lava Golem/Destroyer. Of course, this is a two-card combo just to deal more damage (not a fan), but the synergy is there.

[Mastermind79]

Steam Machine also has more synergy with Rage Potion than Lava Golem/Destroyer. Of course, this is a two-card combo just to deal more damage (not a fan), but the synergy is there.

Wait, why? It seems like the synergy is with both. And Golem can grow back the HP with (probably) less quanta cost.

2) Health.
Lava Golems can be easily destroyed, when they are not big.
 Steam Engine comes with enough health.

With three turns, a Lava Golam becomes indestructible by Lightning, Shockwave, and 10-19 Quanta Bolts, and becomes bigger every turn.

VS Fire Buckler and Thorn Carapace, the Lava Golem probably wins.

[ddevans96]

Factor in amount of HP left per round, quantum used for individual elements, and using rage potion once per turn every time the creature will survive. You might also factor in unupped steam machine for HP and Rage Potion, upped rage potions, or quanta for rage potion as well.

[LootPinata]

teffy - Good point, which option you go with should be influenced by which quanta you're likely to have enough of to buff every round. That's why I wanted to make these charts in the first place; for instance, even though a Steam Machine will consistently do more damage, a Fire or Forest Spectre is still more efficient in terms of damage per quanta.

jmizzle7 - You could make the same argument about Lava Destroyers and Heavy Armor. One is 5 and 1 for a 7/7 creature, the other is 5 and 3 for a 6/9 creature, and from that point on, the same math applies. The fire/earth option is still cheaper and deals more damage.

I've already added Forest Spirit/Spectres, Fire Spirit/Spectres, and Graviton Fire Eaters/Firemasters; I'll add the un-upped Steam Machine and Steam Machine/Rage Potion combo.

[MrBlonde]

VS Fire Buckler and Thorn Carapace, the Lava Golem probably wins.

Well it definitely won't beat Fire Buckler if it's already out. 

[LootPinata]

Charting the HP of these creatures reveals about what you'd expect; anything where the health gets buffed as well (Lava Golems/Destroyers and Forest Spirit/Spectres) will survive longer than anything that doesn't.

In order to plot a creature's damage potential, we would need some way of determining how much effective damage the creature deals against how likely it is to survive. Between all the different forms of creature control and shields, I'm not sure if there's any way of making such a value meaningful.

[jmdt]

VS Fire Buckler and Thorn Carapace, the Lava Golem probably wins.

Well it definitely won't beat Fire Buckler if it's already out. 

I lose more games to hermes and octane because of the stupid fire shield, lol.

[Rastafla]

To me the actual damage is way better than what the hp is. A creatures HP wont win you matches ((yet!) think *voodoo doll*)). Their damage does, and the earlier the better. Fighting Neptune tells you this, flooding is no problem as your creatures still gets to attack.

ALL creatures attack the first turn no matter what (exception is with sundial). As long as that is true HP means nothing!