Card Drop Rate

[rosutosefi]

Because I suck at probabilities, I made a basic program to test the chance of winning a card from a specific deck.
And here it is:
%by light_sefi
%Requires two vectors, a for pillars and b for other cards. All cards that
%turn into relics should be kept in one vector component.
clc
wins = input('Enter number of wins: ');
cumulative = zeros(1,length(a)+length(b));
won = zeros(1,length(a)+length(b));
tc = 0;
four = zeros(1,4);
attempt = 0;
for c = 1:length(a)
    tc = tc + a(c);
    cumulative(c) = tc;
end
for d = 1:length(b)
    tc = tc + b(d);
    cumulative(length(a)+d) = tc;
end
for win = 1:wins
for e = 1:4
    g = 0;
    attempt = 0;
    while attempt < 10 && g <= length(a)
        f = floor(rand(1)*(cumulative(end)));
        attempt = attempt + 1;
        g = 0;
        cp = 0;
        while g <= length(cumulative) && cp == 0;
            g = g + 1;
            if f < cumulative(g)
                four(e) = g;
                cp = 1;
            end
        end
    end
end
for h = 1:3
    spun = zeros(1,3);
    for m = 1:3
        spun(m) = four(floor(rand(1)*4)+1);
    end
    if spun(1) == spun(2) && spun(1) == spun(3)
        won(spun(1)) = won(spun(1)) + 1;
    end
end
end
fprintf('Results:', wins)
for n = 1:length(won)
    fprintf(' %d ', won(n))
end
fprintf('\nTotal: %d\n', sum(won))
fprintf('Card Drop Rate: %g%%\n', sum(won)*100/wins)*note that I have another program, a deck reader, that will create the vectors from your deckcode. Or if you will use this in MATLAB, you can write the vector yourself.
I'm working on a REAL probability tester atm. You know, let it find all the possible results and not rely on some crazy RNG 
Now, that thing up there is not useful for us elementals, but the results it will give will be .
Post the deck you want to test here, and I'll give you results for 1 million wins (or maybe 10 million if it will really help the community.  )

**EDIT: changed the cardpool from 5 to 4 due to misinformation. Going to change the stats as soon as I can.

[rosutosefi]

*the decks used were from here. http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,7919.0.html

Akebono

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6rs 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 746 746 748 748 748 748 748 748 74a 74c 74i 74g 74g 74i 74i 74i 8pl

Results: 1347  170406  473449  3253145  171496  170734  472250  1520790
Total: 6233617Card Drop Rate: 62.3362%

Chaos Lord

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6tt 6tv 6u0 6u0 6u1 6u1 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u4 6u4 6u4 6u5 6u6 6u6 6u6 6u6 74a 7dm 7gn 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7t9 8pj

Results: 61  56  72369  72747  177739  177388  317967  964275  318454  72329  494025  72631  72662  72963  966725  73127
Total: 3925518Card Drop Rate: 39.2552%

Dark Matter

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 745 745 745 745 746 748 74a 74b 74b 74c 74d 74d 74d 74d 74f 74f 74f 74f 74f 74f 74o 74o 7ju 7ju 7ju 7ju 7jv 7k1 8pq

Results: 236  644297  88970  88920  88490  222609  88743  643832  1285739  223498  645357  88869  88961
Total: 4198521Card Drop Rate: 41.9852%

Decay

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t6 7t8 7t9 7t9 7ta 7tc 7tc 7tc 7tc 7tc 7tc 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 80e 80i 80i 80i 80i 80i 80i 8pt

Results: 1  1834596  114396  298578  114648  1833583  113995  1837262
Total: 6147059Card Drop Rate: 61.4706%

Destiny

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6tt 6tt 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u6 6u6 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q2 7q2 7q2 7q2 7q2 7q2 7q4 7q4 7q4 7q4 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q8 7q8 8ps

Results: 232  120  213602  882056  883150  212876  1209703  609359  387783  213218
Total: 4612099Card Drop Rate: 46.121%

Divine Glory

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7dg 7dg 7dg 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k2 7k2 7k2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 8pq

Results: 126  495  2384620  2382639  696887  1697889
Total: 7162656Card Drop Rate: 71.6266%

Dream Catcher

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6tu 6tu 6tu 6tu 6tu 6tu 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u5 6u5 6u8 6u8 6u8 6ug 74f 77i 77j 7dr 7gl 7gn 7n7 7n7 7q1 7q2 7t6 7t6 80a 80h 8pj

Results: 0  1018084  1021832  185981  333371  75472  75650  75294  75425  75069  75858  75208  185263  75290  75400  185686  75783  75266
Total: 3759932Card Drop Rate: 37.5993%

Elidnis

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7ah 7ah 7ah 7ah 7ah 7ah 7ai 7ai 7ak 7al 7am 7am 7am 7am 7am 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gm 7gm 7gm 7gn 7gn 7gn 7gn 7gn 7gu 7gu 7gu 7gv 7gv 7gv 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 80b 80b 80b 80b 80b 80f 80f 80f 80h 80h 8pn

Results: 6  7  728283  142312  59524  59580  541268  248715  542728  249200  249596  542582  248531  142144
Total: 3754476Card Drop Rate: 37.5448%

Eternal Phoenix

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7di 7di 7dk 7dk 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7do 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 80a 80i 80i 80i 8pu

Results: 77  397476  396816  1245788  147165  2630734  146989  761027
Total: 5726072Card Drop Rate: 57.2607%

Ferox

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ad 7ad 7ad 7ad 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7af 7af 7af 7af 7af 7af 7ag 7ag 7ag 7ag 7ak 7al 7am 7am 7am 7am 7am 7am 7an 7an 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 8pn

Results: 42  472980  472894  918981  473473  69633  70310  917008  170657  919741
Total: 4485719Card Drop Rate: 44.8572%

Fire Queen

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7am 7am 7am 7am 7am 7am 7dk 7dk 7dk 7dn 7dn 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n3 7n3 7n3 7n3 7n3 7n3 7n5 7n5 7n5 8pr

Results: 2394  1647  1832151  553921  297189  555469  1827660  556169
Total: 5626600Card Drop Rate: 56.266%

Gemini

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

744 744 744 744 744 744 748 748 748 74a 74a 74a 74a 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 80b 80b 80b 80b 80b 80b 80c 80d 80d 80d 80d 80e 80f 80g 80g 80g 80g 80g 80g 8pu

Results: 103  243  457910  729141  1466305  97499  728458  97710  97599  1467656
Total: 5142624Card Drop Rate: 51.4262%

Graviton

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 744 745 745 746 749 74a 74a 74a 74b 74b 74b 74c 74d 74e 74e 74e 74e 74e 74e 7dm 7dm 7do 8po

Results: 181  340804  128765  127928  643974  643913  128392  127993  2178158  341661  128722
Total: 4790491Card Drop Rate: 47.9049%

Hecate

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7dr 7dr 7dr 7dr 7dr 7dr 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t8 7t9 7t9 7ta 7ta 7tb 7te 7te 7te 7te 7tg 7tg 7tg 7tg 7tg 7tg 7th 8po

Results: 12  1834342  114377  298217  297975  114190  896315  1838190  114458
Total: 5508076Card Drop Rate: 55.0808%

Hermes

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

77d 77d 77d 77i 77i 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dh 7dh 7dh 7dh 7di 7dj 7dj 7dj 7dj 7dk 7dk 7dk 7dk 7dk 7dk 7dl 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dn 7do 7do 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dr 7dr 8pm

Results: 49  258235  146343  397359  60980  397054  760309  60388  764098  61197  146179  759048  146867
Total: 3958106Card Drop Rate: 39.5811%

Incarnate

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

712 712 712 712 717 717 717 717 717 71b 71b 71b 71b 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t4 7t7 7t7 7t7 7t7 7ta 7ta 7ta 7ta 7tb 7td 7td 7td 7td 7td 7td 8pk

Results: 48  644517  938436  644867  645630  645804  89170  1288621
Total: 4897093Card Drop Rate: 48.9709%

Jezebel

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gp 7h0 7h0 7h0 7h0 7h0 7h0 7t9 7t9 7t9 7t9 7tb 7tc 7tc 7ti 7ti 7ti 8pt

Results: 1131  770  170512  3254629  1518783  171563  471727  918056
Total: 6507171Card Drop Rate: 65.0717%

Lionheart

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7k5 7k5 7k5 7k5 7k5 7n2 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q3 7q3 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q7 7q7 7q7 7q8 7q8 7qc 80h 80h 81q 81q 81q 8ps

Results: 175  308  479  166  1555288  128259  341966  1552943  644057  340834  128158  341343
Total: 5033976Card Drop Rate: 50.3398%

Miracle

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ad 7af 7af 7ak 7al 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jq 7jq 7jq 7jr 7jr 7jt 7jv 7jv 7jv 7k1 7k2 7k2 7k2 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7n3 7n3 7n3 8pq

Results: 169  346  135  128694  340833  128930  129534  645617  341091  128043  645490  128375  643689  644734
Total: 3905680Card Drop Rate: 39.0568%

Morte

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 711 711 712 712 712 712 712 712 713 714 714 714 717 717 717 718 718 718 718 718 719 719 719 71a 71a 71b 71b 71b 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7ju 7ju 7ju 7k2 8pk

Results: 3  147589  761485  61002  258645  258769  565056  259287  146655  258694  760619  259076  60958
Total: 3797838Card Drop Rate: 37.9784%

Neptune

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gm 7gm 7gm 7gm 7gn 7gp 7gp 7gr 7gr 7gr 7gr 7gs 7gt 7gt 7h1 7h1 7h1 7h1 7n5 7n7 7n7 7n7 7n7 7n7 7n7 8pr

Results: 18  777397  103338  263411  778611  102962  263283  778860  102745  1578713
Total: 4749338Card Drop Rate: 47.4934%

Obliterator

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

74a 74a 74a 74a 74d 74d 74d 74d 74d 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77b 77b 77b 77b 77b 77c 77c 77f 77f 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77i 77i 77i 8pl

Results: 380  684959  998789  996443  236848  235611  1373107  431910
Total: 4958047Card Drop Rate: 49.5805%

Octane

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7dk 7dk 7dl 7dm 7dm 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n5 7n5 7n5 7n5 7n5 7n6 7n6 7n6 7n6 7n6 7n6 8po

Results: 105  367630  137536  368059  1141733  1698472  2383521
Total: 6097056Card Drop Rate: 60.9706%

Osiris

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

74a 74a 74h 74h 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q0 7q3 7q4 7q4 7q8 7qb 7qb 7qc 7qc 7qc 7qc 7qc 7qc 8pl

Results: 1817  519705  519399  185869  519534  186451  519243  3659577
Total: 6111595Card Drop Rate: 61.1159%

Paradox

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7k0 7k0 7k1 7k1 7k2 7k2 7k2 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q1 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 80b 80b 80b 80b 80b 8ps

Results: 0  1142200  1141009  138225  137032  239960  1141098  367525  519614
Total: 4826663Card Drop Rate: 48.2666%

Rainbow

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u1 6u1 6u1 6u1 74d 74d 74d 77g 77g 77g 77g 7ah 7ah 7ah 7ah 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7gn 7gn 7gn 7k2 7k2 7n5 7n5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7q5 7t9 7t9 7t9 80a 80a 8ps

Results: 204  433023  280623  432565  432919  433360  279721  158043  158608  615865  279229  158590
Total: 3662750Card Drop Rate: 36.6275%

Scorpio

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

718 718 718 718 718 71a 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gk 7gl 7gl 7gl 7gm 7gm 7gm 7gn 7gn 7gn 7go 7gp 7gp 7gq 7gr 7gr 7gs 7gt 7gu 7gu 7gu 7gu 7gu 7gu 7gv 7gv 808 808 808 80b 80b 8pk

Results: 130  21  710197  72902  318610  319200  318286  72803  178538  72795  177579  72377  72746  966340  178072  178297
Total: 3708893Card Drop Rate: 37.0889%

Seism

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 779 77a 77a 77b 77b 77c 77e 77e 77e 77f 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77i 77i 77j 77j 77j 77j 77j 77j 77k 7q4 7q4 7q4 7q4 7q6 8ps

Results: 49  81475  203205  202733  81752  368130  81241  1138985  202870  1140507  81767  576328  81446
Total: 4240488Card Drop Rate: 42.4049%

Serket

by light_sefi

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Deck import code : [Select]

710 710 710 710 710 710 710 713 713 713 713 713 71a 71a 71e 71e 71e 71e 71e 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ao 7ao 7ao 7ao 7ao 7b0 7b0 7ta 7ta 7ta 7ti 7ti 7ti 8pt

Results: 33  60  1138887  263449  1139966  1140021  263978  487226  486883
Total: 4920503Card Drop Rate: 49.205%

[moonlighting]

this would be cool, just curious that does your code match the real spinning algorithm in the game exactly? where did zanzarino say about the spinning algorithm?

[Xenocidius]

Zanzarino mentioned the algorithm in the very, very early days of Elements. Dark Weaver looked into the games source and posted the updated algorithm here (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,20376.msg420816#msg420816).

I wrote a Python program for this and the results match. Post moar.

[rosutosefi]

FG's done!

[Xenocidius]

Strange, I get around 0.84 cards won per game for Osiris with my simulator (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/wp-content/uploads/simulator2.html).

Anyway, great job!

[Sevs]

Strange, I get around 0.84 cards won per game for Osiris with my simulator (http://elementscommunity.org/wiki/wp-content/uploads/simulator2.html).

Anyway, great job!

so you get a higher win % with a deck with more card variety?  DG=3 card types to win vs the 7 of Osiris?

[Xenocidius]

I know it's strange, but it uses the exact algorithm provided by Dark Weaver - and all the other FGs seem right.

[rosutosefi]

DG has more cards, but these are in copies of [6 6 5 3], so drop rate should be significantly higher.

[Xenocidius]

I really have no idea why it's doing that. It seems very unusual, considering it works fine for other decks.

[rosutosefi]

maybe a mistake in entering card data?
I entered the vectors on mine manually and run it again. Still same results.

[Xenocidius]

Alright, I ran it through my original Python program; same results (0.85 per win).

Are you sure yours is correct?

Here are the two main functions for reference:

def select(): #This selects 4 cards to use in the spinner
    ncard = 0 #0 cards have been selected
    loop = 0 #No cards have been pillars
    card = [0, 0, 0, 0] #Generate an array for the 4 cards to be used
    while ncard <= 3: #Do this 4 times
        index = random.randint(0, (len(cards)-1)) #Pick a random integer/card between 0 and the length of the card array (it holds the card code list)
        while cards[index] in pillarcodes and loop < 8: #If card is a pillar, select another random card (should be <9)
            index = random.randint(0, len(cards)-1) #Pick another random integer/card
            loop = loop + 1 #Add 1 to loop
        card[ncard] = cards[index] #The nth card in the array is now the card code of the card selected
        ncard = ncard + 1 #Add 1 to number of cards picked
    return card #At the end, output the array of the 4 cards picked

def spin(): #This spins the wheel three times and returns the number of cards won
    wins = 0 #0 cards have been won
    card = select() #Generate a card array of the cards picked in the select() function
    for i in range(0, 3): #repeat 3 times
        card1 = card[random.randint(0, 3)] #Assign one of the 4 cards to the first card spun
        card2 = card[random.randint(0, 3)] #Assign one of the 4 cards to the second card spun
        card3 = card[random.randint(0, 3)] #Assign one of the 4 cards to the third card spun
        if card1 == card2 and card2 == card3: #If all cards are equal
            wins += 1 #Increase number of cards won by 1
    return wins #Return the number of cards won (for use in a different function)