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Offline BluePriest

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Re: Auto-mulligan question. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35902.msg455087#msg455087
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2012, 01:04:22 am »
So, found a tool that simulates deck drawing. Its not EXACT % because it runs a simulation, but according to it, there is an approximate 97.5% chance to get it in your opening hand when there are no sundials.
There is an approximately 86% chance when there is 6 sundials in your deck as well.

The tool is here if you are curious.
http://xenocidius.webs.com/openinghandsimulator.htm
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Re: Auto-mulligan question. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=35902.msg455173#msg455173
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2012, 03:38:18 am »
Just to add complexity, the next question is when do you need a tower by?
In deck's that are fueled by towers, or require early towers, then that's great, but Instosis, is fueled by Super Novas.  You don't need a single tower in the deck to pull off the attack.  The towers only fuel the fast draw.  The question for a deck like instosis does not stop at where is my tower?  It only cares that you get a couple towers by AND an electrum hour glass by a certain turn for efficiency.  You also care about when can you start stalling/pulling extra cards.

I've done a bunch of the calculations, I choose the upped sundials, because of the higher rate of getting the sundial chain at the right time.

 

blarg: