for the shards... i guess not as unupped, but upped, yes, they could if the thing could actually happen.
as for the question about the high cost, here's my answer: hey buddy, you got odds of getting a good cards, if not, at least a dragon. and if you're real lucky, you get an upped card.
ONE more thing. in the 25% odds of getting a rare card, you got 5% chance to get an rare upped card. it's an idea i forgot when i first described the suggestion