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Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181174#msg181174
« on: October 21, 2010, 07:18:30 pm »
Maybe Zanz could implement a logarithmic buff to the nymph roll, as a perk for casual players?

Basic maths on this: say you roll a die twice and 6 means you win - that's 11 in 36 chance of getting at least one 6.  If you roll two dice and 5-6 means you win, that's 12 in 36 chance.  Thus the log would have to be less than 1.8 in this case, otherwise people would roll every other day.  Diminishing returns would also ensure people didn't just wait for months and come back for a 100% (or introduce a hard cap).

The idea here is to decrease the amount of people missing out if they have a RL issue that prevents login for a while.

Discuss.

(Started in response to http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14269.0/topicseen.html)

Offline Ryli

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181183#msg181183
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2010, 07:25:17 pm »
That's a very interesting concept. You're probably going recieve a lot of argument about this.

I personally don't think there should be a way of improving the chance at a nymph from the oracle. (not speaking as a person with lots of nymphs, as I've never won one)

Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181186#msg181186
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2010, 07:27:34 pm »
The diminishing returns is to make rolling every day still more appealing if you can manage it.  This concept will only benefit a player who cannot avoid being without access to the game for a time... though some people might fall victim to the gambler's fallacy.

Offline TimerClock14

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181195#msg181195
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2010, 07:39:06 pm »
If my math is right then the chances of getting a nymph are, lessee 1 per element=12total, and around 15-17cards per element, times 12 makes about 5.88% and factoring in the oracle spin 1/12, and the only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule 1/16 or so gives you approx. 0.30625% and lastly factoring in the (probably 25%-30%) chances of getting a card from the oracle will give you the final percentage of approx. 0.0009% chance of getting a nymph from the oracle spin. O_O that's a bit worse than I had predicted, can someone check my math?
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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181206#msg181206
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2010, 07:56:48 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181214#msg181214
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2010, 08:07:28 pm »
In my opinion you shouldn't be rewarded for not logging into the game.

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181220#msg181220
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2010, 08:20:16 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?
It goes a little something like this: you are not able to get a nymph (if you win one) that is outside the mark you are currently using for your deck. This can be easily changed in the deck manager, but the rule remains the same. This therein controls what nymph (if won) you get as well as a major boost in rarity.
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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181223#msg181223
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2010, 08:33:20 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?
It goes a little something like this: you are not able to get a nymph (if you win one) that is outside the mark you are currently using for your deck. This can be easily changed in the deck manager, but the rule remains the same. This therein controls what nymph (if won) you get as well as a major boost in rarity.
I've never used a Darkness-mark deck in game and I have 2 Darkness Nymphs. (no, I did not choose them as a tourney award)

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181227#msg181227
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2010, 08:42:40 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?
It goes a little something like this: you are not able to get a nymph (if you win one) that is outside the mark you are currently using for your deck. This can be easily changed in the deck manager, but the rule remains the same. This therein controls what nymph (if won) you get as well as a major boost in rarity.
I've never used a Darkness-mark deck in game and I have 2 Darkness Nymphs. (no, I did not choose them as a tourney award)
I won a green nymph today and I had light as my mark.

OT: I'm kind of ok with the idea (not sure, because oracle is supposed to be your reward for at least logging on), but I'd like it to drop off really quickly. I'd use Sum(1/2^n) (which converges to 2 as n goes to infinity), where n is the number of days since you last used the oracle. However, it would mean that the server would have to keep track of how long it's been since you last used the oracle.

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181248#msg181248
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2010, 09:11:22 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?
It goes a little something like this: you are not able to get a nymph (if you win one) that is outside the mark you are currently using for your deck. This can be easily changed in the deck manager, but the rule remains the same. This therein controls what nymph (if won) you get as well as a major boost in rarity.
I've never used a Darkness-mark deck in game and I have 2 Darkness Nymphs. (no, I did not choose them as a tourney award)
I won a green nymph today and I had light as my mark.

OT: I'm kind of ok with the idea (not sure, because oracle is supposed to be your reward for at least logging on), but I'd like it to drop off really quickly. I'd use Sum(1/2^n) (which converges to 2 as n goes to infinity), where n is the number of days since you last used the oracle. However, it would mean that the server would have to keep track of how long it's been since you last used the oracle.
hmmm, that shouldn't happen....if this is true then my calculations are waaaaaay off.
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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181257#msg181257
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2010, 09:25:34 pm »
What's this only-get-your-mark's-nymph rule?
It goes a little something like this: you are not able to get a nymph (if you win one) that is outside the mark you are currently using for your deck. This can be easily changed in the deck manager, but the rule remains the same. This therein controls what nymph (if won) you get as well as a major boost in rarity.
I've never used a Darkness-mark deck in game and I have 2 Darkness Nymphs. (no, I did not choose them as a tourney award)
I won a green nymph today and I had light as my mark.

OT: I'm kind of ok with the idea (not sure, because oracle is supposed to be your reward for at least logging on), but I'd like it to drop off really quickly. I'd use Sum(1/2^n) (which converges to 2 as n goes to infinity), where n is the number of days since you last used the oracle. However, it would mean that the server would have to keep track of how long it's been since you last used the oracle.
hmmm, that shouldn't happen....if this is true then my calculations are waaaaaay off.
yeah i've won all sorts of nymphs with a darkness mark the entire time, only winning one black nymph (much to my dismay.)  Might just explain your calculation error
I really like this idea tho, it would really help out players who can't or just don't play every day

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Re: Oracle gets better if you wait? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=14316.msg181268#msg181268
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2010, 09:35:21 pm »
Yeah, I had a :lifemark when I won my golden nymph.
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