Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[RootRanger]

Yuh nice.

Time for follow-the-cop, right?

[Mobian]

That result cleared up any reservations I had about Kaempfer. He's confirmed town in my opinion. I think I know who Alpha is, but will think on it more and share during the next day phase.

[RootRanger]

If Omegon stays quiet, the chance of him dying tonight is too high. If Alpharius has scanned 0/1/2 of the 4 people in the list, Omegon's death likelihood (without adjusting for Sheed) are 25%/33%/50%. With Sheed protecting someone in the list randomly, the likelihood goes to 18%/25%/38%. The chance of Omegon dying in Night 3 shoots up drastically, as Alpharius can both kill someone on the list and check someone else. So the Omegon claim has to happen, either right now or after tonight, but I don't really see the merits of waiting, right?

Also @Mobian that's a bold claim for someone who... isn't Omegon lol

[andretimpa]

get rekt

serp and Root rose from n+ to v in my eyes

[kaempfer13]

dont be so rash, there is value in a harrowing occuring without the other townrole exposed

[Mobian]

If Omegon stays quiet, the chance of him dying tonight is too high. If Alpharius has scanned 0/1/2 of the 4 people in the list, Omegon's death likelihood (without adjusting for Sheed) are 25%/33%/50%. With Sheed protecting someone in the list randomly, the likelihood goes to 18%/25%/38%. The chance of Omegon dying in Night 3 shoots up drastically, as Alpharius can both kill someone on the list and check someone else. So the Omegon claim has to happen, either right now or after tonight, but I don't really see the merits of waiting, right?

Also @Mobian that's a bold claim for someone who... isn't Omegon lol

I've had an off feeling about this player the whole game. Now I just need to re-read EVERYTHING and see if it's just paranoia talking. Doc, use that harrowing to protect Omegon.

[RootRanger]

dont be so rash, there is value in a harrowing occuring without the other townrole exposed

Elaborate? As in, let Omegon die, or?

[Linkcat]

How unfortunate.

[kaempfer13]

if omegon is immortal as sheed ranko lives, alpharius will hard search for sheed. As such a harrowing is but 1 night away from gameend. If we let alpharius look for omegon sheed may go undetected with half the players confirmed town.

[kaempfer13]

ofc any alpharius result seals the game, unless it was serprex last night.

[kaempfer13]

i'll let serprex do the math. after all theres a 3/7th chance sheed gets killed accidentally on the omegon search

[RootRanger]

Sure but you also risk Omegon dying without ever revealing any results. If Omegon roleclaims and survives, we get 3 nights of results to reveal in the next day phase. Even if Sheed dies immediately, we likely have enough information to win the game through combining the Omegon claim with the Harrowing. Keep in mind that a confirmed Omegon can not only confirm their green checks, but also we can semi-confirm more people if any Legionaries can reveal who Omegon targeted (prior to Omegon revealing this information). As in, if Player A says that Omegon targeted Player B in N0, and Omegon confirms this, then Player A is almost certainly civ. Whereas, if Omegon dies (which, in the no-claim scenario, is more likely than Sheed dying in the claim scenario), we've turned a near-certain win into potential defeat with the total lack of information to work with.