Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[kaempfer13]

explanations for nightkill:
1. someone feeling fancy: This would point to Linkcat or serprex and after the last game Im not sure i can exclude Root from that list.
2. read as pr (evidently he wasnt so not an alpharius read): Serprex made a big point about this actually, root probably also remembers shock always targeting me when able, if that part of the theory is even true. It could also be that they read most of the active participants as not pr and shock was left.
3. Maintaining status quo: I already mentioned how wagonomics did not imply that any of the wagons was correct and shockcannon would then be the biggest wildcard. This would point to anyone not voted (much). If they read the thread though they should have noted that sentiment was going against shock.

[Mobian]

Mafia definitely fucked up, as I was all set to funnel the fuck outta Shock. This would also imply that we're dealing with novices, because as kaempf said, public opinion was shifting away from shock and would been a likely lynch, which means they wasted a NK. Looks like I need to do a lil more research before I'll be comfortable posting my guesses.

[Mobian]

Kaempfer, I keep seeing you use the term "wagonomics" but I'm not entirely sure what you mean by it. Could you please offer a quick tutorial and/or an example?

[Wyand]

My guess would be that a wagon is a lynch list.

But what are these n+ n- etc, thingies?

[Wyand]

EBWOP: by lynch list I mean a line about a certain player with votes on him/her.

[kaempfer13]

It has to do with votecount and when movements occur.

Reminder, here's the lynchlog, dont forget to open the spoiler:

Spoiler for lynchlog:

Linkcat (1) - serprex
serprex(1) - Linkcat

Linkcat (1) - serprex
serprex (1) - Linkcat
marsmoons (1) - Mobian

Linkcat (1) - serprex
serprex (1) - Linkcat
marsmoons (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) marsmoons

Linkcat (1) - serprex
serprex (1) - Linkcat
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) marsmoons

Linkcat (1) - serprex
PlayerOa (1) - Linkcat
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) marsmoons

Linkcat (1) - serprex
PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) marsmoons

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (1) - serprex

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (2) - serprex, andretimpa

PlayerOa (3) - Linkcat, RootRanger, andretimpa
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (1) - serprex

PlayerOa (3) - Linkcat, RootRanger, andretimpa
marsmoons (1) - kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (2) - serprex, Mobian

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (1) - kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (3) - serprex, Mobian, andretimpa

For an obvious example, this one is definitily significant as it was basically final:
PlayerOa (3) - Linkcat, RootRanger, andretimpa
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (1) - serprex

which then became this

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (1) - kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (3) - serprex, Mobian, andretimpa

w3 ended up as the lynchwagon, while Oa barely ended up as the counterwagon (though if we look at the full development, w3 was the last counterwagon to come into existence)

It is highly likely that Oa has the same alignement as you, as you were his saving grace, timpa was just not willing to make MW roll and already leaning towards w3 earlier. Furthermore, either Oa is town or everyone voting him was, as this particular game's rules are very unfriendly towards bussing. Obviously, I lean towards Oa simply being town, which doesnt tell us that much, but its still a townread.

To a lesser degree, marsmoons had consistently some decent pressure since you and i parked there. Not a very strong basis as some movement did happen after, while others were to lazy to even show up, but he's also basically derpclear after he asked how mafia votes on the nightkill.

[kaempfer13]

My guess would be that a wagon is a lynch list.

But what are these n+ n- etc, thingies?

readlists with low confidence. we discussed this earlier.

Also Link asked you to make one yourself and i too wish that everyone attempts to note some comprehensive tendencies of how they feel about others. Or at least give their strongest read, even if it's just townreads.

[RootRanger]

A detour into mechanics -

I think if Omegon has found Ingo, it would be a good time to reveal that now. Otherwise, probably best to wait another round or two before revealing. But don't wait too long lol because mafia can typically rule out two people per round (one from NK, one from Alpharius rolecop ability).

As for Legionaries, well, definitely don't just arbitrarily reveal N0 results, because it could reveal the identity of Sheed to the mafia, considering he targeted the same person as the NK target. Revealing an Alpharius result - well, maybe, as that could help us in finding Ingo. But otherwise, prob hold off for now?

[Mobian]

Thanks, I have a better understanding now. This ruleset is pretty tricky, with no real way to out the mafia without committing suicide. Essentially, the cop will need to survive long enough to target enough people to get clear reads, and hope none of his checks get framed.

[kaempfer13]

A framing happening and detected by a legionary should definitely be made public.

Also I noticed a peculiarity about the wording of the rules. I think everyone thats not the main power roles is a legionary (bin reluctant to voice this due to it being a softclaim if untrue). If true that has major implications if noone noticed a framing and someone holstered (yh Linkcat only half counts).

[Mobian]

Also I noticed a peculiarity about the wording of the rules. I think everyone thats not the main power roles is a legionary (bin reluctant to voice this due to it being a softclaim if untrue). If true that has major implications if noone noticed a framing and someone holstered (yh Linkcat only half counts).

I believe that's how this works. Everyone has a role, whoever's not a faction leader or #2 is a town leg.

[MasterWalks]

Mafia started with 1 Alpharius and 1 Ingo Pech

Town started with 1 Omegon, 1 Sheed Ranko, and 7 Legionaries