Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[RootRanger]

If mafia slept through their NK, then the inactives are more likely to be mafia. If mafia and the Doctor both targeted the same player, probably someone on the more active side, then the active players would be less likely to be mafia, so, same thing.

Linkcat (1) - serprex
PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) marsmoons

I would also be happy lynching shockcannon.

[PlayerOa]

@oa are you still on vacation? I don't know why we should be sad about lynching someone who's basking at the poolside in Italy. Is going on vacation no longer political career suicide?

Nope, well back home. I’m just confused as fck about the rules and how to play, lol.

[RootRanger]

Thoughts on who to lynch, or who not to? + if/when the Cop should ever reveal?

[kaempfer13]

24 hour extension (1) kaempfer13

[andretimpa]

With how slow the game is moving I agree with this

24 hour extension (2) kaempfer13, andretimpa

[andretimpa]

@oa are you still on vacation? I don't know why we should be sad about lynching someone who's basking at the poolside in Italy. Is going on vacation no longer political career suicide?

Nope, well back home. I’m just confused as fck about the rules and how to play, lol.

Use your skills (the results may will be useful later) and vote on who you think looks suspicious. It's not rocket science.

[kaempfer13]

Inactive enough in the night to possibly miss sending the nightkill altogether: i think its absolutely save to exclude serprex and Mobian. i cannot believe rootranger would fail this hard on a mechanical level either.
The only ones that failed to check in in the night were w3 and marsmoons, yet Linkcat also managed to miss his night action somehow apparently. Even so, I believe the chance of both mafia members failing to place a nightkill is abyssmal, unless they fully expected the other one to cover that.
So i think it was a successful safe. Which for the general public simply means that one of the (presumably more active) players is town and only a singular trustworthy person knows who exactly that person is.

[worldwideweb3]

ty for targetting me then doc

[andretimpa]

Inactive enough in the night to possibly miss sending the nightkill altogether: i think its absolutely save to exclude serprex and Mobian. i cannot believe rootranger would fail this hard on a mechanical level either.
The only ones that failed to check in in the night were w3 and marsmoons, yet Linkcat also managed to miss his night action somehow apparently. Even so, I believe the chance of both mafia members failing to place a nightkill is abyssmal, unless they fully expected the other one to cover that.
So i think it was a successful safe. Which for the general public simply means that one of the (presumably more active) players is town and only a singular trustworthy person knows who exactly that person is.

The only worlds where I see mafia forgetting a NK is if both players are inactive or they got confused about whether there was a NK during N0. Looking at the bottom posters, I don't actually buy any of them forgetting to send the kill. If they didn't know about N0 kills the mafia team is 2 among Wyand, Mobian, marsmoons (too unlikely to pursue right now imo).

Of course, there's always the galaxy brain play of 2 active players not sending the NK to make us look somewhere else for the rest of the game

[Mobian]

Inactive enough in the night to possibly miss sending the nightkill altogether: i think its absolutely save to exclude serprex and Mobian. i cannot believe rootranger would fail this hard on a mechanical level either.
The only ones that failed to check in in the night were w3 and marsmoons, yet Linkcat also managed to miss his night action somehow apparently. Even so, I believe the chance of both mafia members failing to place a nightkill is abyssmal, unless they fully expected the other one to cover that.
So i think it was a successful safe. Which for the general public simply means that one of the (presumably more active) players is town and only a singular trustworthy person knows who exactly that person is.

The only worlds where I see mafia forgetting a NK is if both players are inactive or they got confused about whether there was a NK during N0. Looking at the bottom posters, I don't actually buy any of them forgetting to send the kill. If they didn't know about N0 kills the mafia team is 2 among Wyand, Mobian, marsmoons (too unlikely to pursue right now imo).

Of course, there's always the galaxy brain play of 2 active players not sending the NK to make us look somewhere else for the rest of the game

I'm sure they have access to a mafiapad with a direct line to the host if they needed to ask about NK mechanics. I refuse to believe any of the players are dense enough to not ask questions. I'm starting to agree that the doc got supremely lucky.

[serprex]

1/9 are pretty good odds, & those odds are improved when accounting for good manners like not making first NK Wyand or marsmoons

@marsmoons: while it's important to push independently, in the end town needs to vote together to win. You're not going to build consensus on kaempfer13 based on "hunch". Notice how I haven't been able to get any consensus building on Linkcat despite my best efforts to build a case because in the end the group will never vote Linkcat D1 unless someone hard claims a scum check on him. Now that you're a leading wagon you're compelled to move your vote to Oa for self preservation. Oa should be voting on you for the same reason

Now, from my own perspective, I don't see town hitting scum D1 with only 6/11 votes. Unless we're buying this "lol doc can't hit saves here because #neverlucky" theory. So I don't think marsmoons/oa are it. There'd be more chance that the kaempfer13 vote is a lucky hit than scum letting themselves go this early. Unless Root is marsmoons' buddy. He'd recognize the Oa wagon as the most reasonable one to get behind

For now I'll try build wagons on two people waiting until the final hour to vote

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (1) - serprex

[Linkcat]

I'm dead right now, vote staying. If you guys need a hammer for extension I'll go for it.