Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[RootRanger]

@MasterWalks, for the Harrowing, is the 50% rounded up or down? So, with 7 players left, would 3 names be posted or 4?

[kaempfer13]

some of those reads might be daed already though

[RootRanger]

If both reads are still alive, does that change things? Should Omegon claim in that scenario?

[MasterWalks]

@MasterWalks, for the Harrowing, is the 50% rounded up or down? So, with 7 players left, would 3 names be posted or 4?

Rounded up. 7 players would mean 4 on Harrowing list

[kaempfer13]

Sure but you also risk Omegon dying without ever revealing any results. If Omegon roleclaims and survives, we get 3 nights of results to reveal in the next day phase. Even if Sheed dies immediately, we likely have enough information to win the game through combining the Omegon claim with the Harrowing. Keep in mind that a confirmed Omegon can not only confirm their green checks, but also we can semi-confirm more people if any Legionaries can reveal who Omegon targeted (prior to Omegon revealing this information). As in, if Player A says that Omegon targeted Player B in N0, and Omegon confirms this, then Player A is almost certainly civ. Whereas, if Omegon dies (which, in the no-claim scenario, is more likely than Sheed dying in the claim scenario), we've turned a near-certain win into potential defeat with the total lack of information to work with.

Actually an interesting point in favor of omegon claiming after Legionaries somehow. Though giving results as an unordered list may also be a good middle of the road. In that potential strategy, it would be ideal for omegon to reveal identity in the night and giving shuffled results sometime in the day (alpharius ends the game so they are all going to be town).

[kaempfer13]

there is ofc also the ordered massclaim strat, where alpharius would have to make up a lot of shit, though he would probably claim one of the 2 power roles, turning it 50-50 whilst not even needing to lie on targets. Forget I suggested that.

[kaempfer13]

hm actually, let me think about that again. If he claims sheed, omegon checks 1 whilst being protected, sealing the game. if he wants to claim omegon, there is an over 50% chance the harrowing already contradicts him. Also we could stop the massclaim at the second omegon, giving a small chance of sheed evading the massclaim altogether.

[serprex]

The value of Omegon hard claim depends on whether their checks have been adequately breadcrumbed or not

The value of not hard claiming is that it baits mafia to try target Omegon, leaving a chance for a 2nd save this game

Granted, risk may not be worth it given our good position. Say Omegon has 2 checks of info:
3 confirmed, 4 unknown: 25% win
2 confirmed, 3 unknown: 33% win
1 confirmed, 2 unknown: 50% win

Whereas the hard claim is to guarantee that third check. With only 2 breadcrumbed checks of info:
2 confirmed, 5 unknown: 20% win
1 confirmed, 4 unknown: 25% win
0 confirmed, 3 unknown: 33% win

So the extra check is quite useful, even if 1 of the 3 checks are gone already

[RootRanger]

Yah the case where Alpharius counterclaims Omegon could complicate things. But the Omegon claim is always going to happen at some point, it's just a question of when, so the counterclaim is always a lingering possibility. I think it's a good time for Omegon to claim now.

[Mobian]

I'm willing to reveal my targets at any time, now. Could help clear some things up if the other legs do the same.

[serprex]

If Alpharius counterclaims town has 3 more lynches so votes out both, winning

[kaempfer13]

If Alpharius counterclaims town has 3 more lynches so votes out both, winning

town loses with sheed and omegon dead. so if we shoot omegon its kinda bad