Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[serprex]

Right then, fake check spam seems bad. Only scum have info enough to deduce Omegon's identity from them while ideally Sheed has about as good a guess as scum

[PlayerOa]

I don't really feel like dwelling too much on the mechanics yet. I'll let serprex do his thing for now.

Rolled town, btw

[kaempfer13]

I invited marsmoons; this'll be their first game
-snip- I assume you wrote this part before reading your pm
Harrowing mechanic is neat, it effectively throws a wrench in everyone representing "I am Omegon"
If scum is caught. Note that everyone on some level wants to pretend to be Omegon, regardless of role (well, maybe not legionaires), though you shouldnt fakehardclaim it as town that is about to get lynched, as that might compell the true Omegon to claim and you are still getting lynched, with half of our "must survive"-team exposed.

Randomly reading town gives an ~81% correctness, or ~20% chance of signaling to scum you aren't Omegon

So for example a D2 Harrowing will have potential Omegon sreduced by 81% D1, 63% D2, then something like half the Harrowing candidates will be known non-Omegon. Assuming mislynch D1 then this rough scenario seems bad & quite possible:

s1
s2
t3
t4 dead
t5 dead
t6 dead
t7
t8
t9
x10 D1
x11 D2
x12 D2

(x means read scum as town, t means town, s means scum, D1/D2 is misread, dead is dead..)

So Harrowing would be a few players where about half of them are struck out which means about half of a few players to hide identity behind

This does scenario does involve scum making exploitable plays: only killing people with good reads. & I'm not sure Omegon can afford to give false reads to protect themselves (hard for them to know if they've been discovered, in which case they don't want to die without admitting to giving a scum read on a townie to throw off scum)

For Sheed it seems like the best target would be someone who town reads you, since that'll avoid protecting someone who has misread & thus become low priority for NK

While this faking the coprole so that the real cop can give his results in plain text without immediately getting exposed is being done in some mafias, it is completely useless if the cop gives fakeresults and as you mathed it relatively quickly narrows down the options when being straightforward. (mind you, scum also gets to rolecop players each night). Furthermore, I dont even trust half the players to participate in this strategy, let alone being convincing (which also includes a very risky fake red check occassionally).

As for your follow the cop suggestion (omegon claims right away and gets permadocced) its problem is that this makes it easier for the mafia framer to throw a wrench in, as their targeting gets more predictable and (more importantly) makes it so we have to win the day after sheed ranko dies, as omegon is both exposed and no longer saveable, on top of being instant gameover.

Sheed ranko cannot self target unfortunately, so yh he's gonna have to target his townreads (or omegon if exposed). Since we are less than 12 players, legionaires are confirmed town (in absence of fakeclaims ofc, but those are somewhat easily exposed) and people not targeting anyone are very likely town as well.

[Mobian]

Roles
Mafia exclusive roles
Primarch Alpharius- Target a player. That player's role is revealed to you.
First Captain Ingo Pech- Target a player. If that player is targeted by Primarch or a Legionare, the result will be "Alpharius".
Universal Role
Legionarie- Target a player. If that player targets another player, those targets are revealed to you.

@MasterWalks, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Legionarie doesn't reveal roles at all, right? So how would Ingo Pech's ability change the report for that role?

[kaempfer13]

already asked that, it overwrites any results with the name "Alpharius", even if its nonsense. a legionaire immediately knows a framing occured on said target then.

[Mobian]

already asked that, it overwrites any results with the name "Alpharius", even if its nonsense. a legionaire immediately knows a framing occured on said target then.

I totally missed that, thanks!

[Linkcat]

My fake check is a red shockcannon.

[PlayerOa]

We agree on instantly announcing a red check, right? At least at this stage of the game, as we get rid of 50% of the mafia and doc becomes cop?

[kaempfer13]

We agree on instantly announcing a red check, right? At least at this stage of the game, as we get rid of 50% of the mafia and doc becomes cop?

Not strictly and its always better to be subtle if its enough for the correct lynch. Also, for the time being mafia has a framer, which will result in a red check on their (town) target, so there is a margin of error, though it could be detected as false alarm by a legionaire with lucky targeting.

Additionally, after the first town harrowing claiming without getting both mafia lynched by the end of the day will lose the game instantly, as there will be no doc and the game ends with noone able to take the role of Omegon.

[kaempfer13]

Also, actually after omegons claim he just gets permadocced outside of fancy plays.

[andretimpa]

I think it would be better to double check a claim that could be framed.

Also we should try to explore Legionnaires crossing streams to get potential liers, since scum didn't got any Legionnaires

[RootRanger]

Well I've read the rules twice and still haven't solved the game yet. Here are my current thoughts.

One question is whether Omegon should reveal; the other is whether Legionaries should reveal.

An immediate Omegon reveal is clearly a high-risk/high-reward play, as it grants us a trusted civ who can also report their results. The counterplay is for the mafia to use these results to try to find Sheed; once they do, as we all know, we only have 1 lynch left before it's game over. On that note, they might not want to report their results, as each legionarie they find will narrow the list of potential Sheeds.

Is there any point at all when Omegon should reveal? Perhaps if they find Ingo, it would be worth it. At this point, town would lynch Ingo which harrows Omegon, but that's fine because Omegon has revealed already. If the mafia find Sheed, then Alpharius gets harrowed, and Omegon potentially has enough information to find Alpharius.

If Omegon finds Alpharius, well, it's roughly 50/50 as to whether this is the true Alpharius or a framed civ, so I wouldn't chance it. Although, if a Legionaire gets an Alpharius result, should that result be revealed? It would enable Omegon to safely claim an Alpharius result if they happened to target Alpharius that night, but the more likely scenario is that Omegon targeted someone else. Thus, we would most likely reveal a Legionarie for no reason other than two confirm two civs (the Legionarie and their target). Of course, mafia can fake claim a Legionarie result, or even fake claim Omegon, and that can be counterclaimed, but who to trust... things get quite complicated quickly.

There's the option of every Legionarie revealing every target every round, and trying to find the scum because they wouldn't be able to produce true claims, but I think this is a fool's errand, as we would be equally likely to find and lynch our own power roles.

Should anyone reveal anything ever? Well, at minimum, we should probably go all-out at Lylo. But most likely, we won't know what that point is, as mafia can end the game unexpectedly by lynching the remaining power role.

For now, I'm leaning towards holding off on reveals tomorrow. Although if someone is about to be lynched, they should probably reveal whatever information they have. If a power role (Omegon/Sheed) is about to be lynched, they should probably let us know they're a power role so we can choose someone else? Only problem is that the scum can pull this same tactic, so I'm not sure.