Elements Mafia 79 - by MasterWalks

[Wyand]

MW you said there won't be this much thinking. At least we are lucky we have these think-tanks (kae, serp).

[MasterWalks]

serprex assessment seems to agree with my hunch:
n- kae

n+ serprex, mobian, oa

marsmoons, you are not allowed to edit posts. This is a warning.
If you made a mistake, please make another post and put EBWOP so we know it's an edit.

Original post was:
serprex assessment seems to agree with my hunch:
n- kae

n+ serprex, mobian,

[Linkcat]

Unless shock actually makes a good play or something, MW being a competent host may be the most surprising thing that happens this game.

[Linkcat]

I think wagonomics pretty much flip my reads upside down other than serp, he's still cool.

It doesnt really seem like any of the leading trains had a(n active) scumpartner.

You're overestimating the amount of influence mafia has in a two mafia game. There are several possibilities, I'm looking at andre/marsmoons right now.

[Linkcat]

1/9 are pretty good odds, & those odds are improved when accounting for good manners like not making first NK Wyand or marsmoons

@marsmoons: while it's important to push independently, in the end town needs to vote together to win. You're not going to build consensus on kaempfer13 based on "hunch". Notice how I haven't been able to get any consensus building on Linkcat despite my best efforts to build a case because in the end the group will never vote Linkcat D1 unless someone hard claims a scum check on him. Now that you're a leading wagon you're compelled to move your vote to Oa for self preservation. Oa should be voting on you for the same reason

Now, from my own perspective, I don't see town hitting scum D1 with only 6/11 votes. Unless we're buying this "lol doc can't hit saves here because #neverlucky" theory. So I don't think marsmoons/oa are it. There'd be more chance that the kaempfer13 vote is a lucky hit than scum letting themselves go this early. Unless Root is marsmoons' buddy. He'd recognize the Oa wagon as the most reasonable one to get behind

For now I'll try build wagons on two people waiting until the final hour to vote

PlayerOa (2) - Linkcat, RootRanger
marsmoons (2) - Mobian, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - marsmoons
worldwideweb3 (1) - serprex

Serp pushing the new guy into consolidating wagons here when they're only at 2 votes is pretty gross.

[kaempfer13]

I think wagonomics pretty much flip my reads upside down other than serp, he's still cool.

It doesnt really seem like any of the leading trains had a(n active) scumpartner.

You're overestimating the amount of influence mafia has in a two mafia game. There are several possibilities, I'm looking at andre/marsmoons right now.

marsmoons with andre/inactive works. Also, I cant quite get rid of the conspiracy theory that Mobian would be his partner, since Mobian gave a reason to vote him that was then immediately addressed by marsmoons allowing it to be a throwaway vote (and also seemed sort of coordinated to me). But Oa certainly has no active friends.

Do consider that the influence of town is also diminished with at least 2 townies not voting at all (though it should be said that none of the wagons even bothered selfpressing, (which itself speaks more for town(or sheer inactivity)), but makes saving them also more challenging).

marsmoons not selfpressing also contradicts my initial impression that he reacts to pressure.

[marsmoons]

Got it. No editing posts.

Lingo help needed with meaning of:
Fake check
Red check
Selfpressing

[kaempfer13]

checks are results of night actions (usually alignement or at least role indicative, in this case both)
red checks mean you found scum
of course lying is part of the game, so anyone can claim a fake check

selfpressing is when you vote to save your skin rather than your highest scumread (after you got voted up). Its against anyones wincondition to get lynched (with some exceptions, but even then you should vote as if it werent one). As town you are the only one you can truly know to be town, as scum survival is even more important, as you only have 1 more teammember to grab the win.

[Linkcat]

But Oa certainly has no active friends.

Mobian, serprex. Are you even looking?

[serprex]

-snip-
As town you are the only one you can truly know to be town, as scum survival is even more important, as you only have 1 more teammember to grab the win.
-snip-

False. Omegon getting a town read knows that their target is town. Similarly, Sheed should consider their target confirmed town when NK fails

[kaempfer13]

i oversimplified, since those roles need to try even harder to stay alive

[kaempfer13]

But Oa certainly has no active friends.

Mobian, serprex. Are you even looking?

so much easier to get on marsmoon train though. Mobian couldnt do that, but look at his buildup, he was voicing a preference for another train after he considered it too late for said train and Oa was going down.