Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[Linkcat]

There are no cult leaders (1) - Linkcat
There are cult leaders (1) - RootRanger


It's the perfect setup to do it in, too. There are zero public checks for cult leaders, he can just make random people cult members and take the game all the way to f3.

[andretimpa]

I think we can cross any words where Oa gets recruited N1 or CK gets recruited at all. I wouldn't put it past serp to make CK a leader tho.

[andretimpa]

There are no cult leaders (2) - Linkcat, andretimpa
There are cult leaders (1) - RootRanger

[RootRanger]

I think we can cross any words where Oa gets recruited N1 or CK gets recruited at all. I wouldn't put it past serp to make CK a leader tho.

How do you feel about the scenario of Linkcat as leader? My long post earlier is a strong case for it imo

[Linkcat]

So I kind of burned out earlier plus had other stuff to do. When I wake up I hope to see two more votes for no leaders and the game over, honestly that's my prevailing theory right now. All other worlds are even dumber.

[shockcannon]

There are no cult leaders (2) - Linkcat, andretimpa
There are cult leaders (2) - RootRanger, shockcannon


Although if there are cult leaders remaining then it really doesn't matter what we vote for right?

[PlayerOa]

Imagine recruiting me, McInactive this week, for your team, lmao. Although I got alibi for staying offline I’d rather grab someone *somewhat* productive.

I would imagine it’s sensible to believe I’m leader, though. I don’t really feel caught up with the thread. Linkcat seems to have a good grasp of the current situation from how I view it.

[Linkcat]

If you mean that and you're not a leader then put your vote on no cultists.

[serprex]

Don't listen to Linkcat, he's trying to trick town. Cult leaders obviously aren't going to be punished for fooling town to give up on looking for cult leaders

[andretimpa]

I think we can cross any words where Oa gets recruited N1 or CK gets recruited at all. I wouldn't put it past serp to make CK a leader tho.

How do you feel about the scenario of Linkcat as leader? My long post earlier is a strong case for it imo

My main thing against it is that I originally read Link`s PM post

I have two confessions to make.

First, I haven't read my role pm yet. (for obvious reasons)

Second, I don't actually like eating eggs by themselves.

If you choose to lynch me for these heresies, I will humbly accept my fate.

as meaning he hadn`t read a PM because he got none. The interpretation that he actually got a PM came from MW

Lmao. You gotta PM? 90% sure that means you a cultist. 8 people didn't get pms... because they're town cops

and Mobian pilling up

I have two confessions to make.

First, I haven't read my role pm yet. (for obvious reasons)

Second, I don't actually like eating eggs by themselves.

If you choose to lynch me for these heresies, I will humbly accept my fate.

I guess we know who one of the cult leaders is.... Only leaders got PMs, after all.

I think Link read the rules beforehand and was just making a joke here.

[andretimpa]

@Root But suppose Link is one of the leaders, who is your guess for the second one?

[Linkcat]

I've had more time to think about things (and not get recruited last night), and the case for lynching Linkcat is just as strong as before.

In a standard format, there's no reason for anyone, regardless of role, to claim that they're scum, as Linkcat has been doing. So you can chalk it up to shitposting. The difference with this format is that in the endgame, the leaders will potentially need to convince other players of their identity. For example, if the remaining 3 players in the final day phase include 1 civ, 1 cultist, and 1 leader, this isn't necessarily gg. If the remaining civ can be convincing enough, they can get the cultist to lynch their own leader. This is the sort of scenario where repeatedly broadcasting that you're a leader from the start of the game would be helpful. I think Linkcat was just counting on nobody realizing this, or nobody getting the votes to actually lynch him.

So what's the full picture look like? Linkcat is a leader, probably on the Big team given the early breadcrumb. We can hope the other leader is MW, and I think the odds of that aren't too bad given how hard he was gunning for me. Plus, the fact that nobody died in the night phase strengthens the case that there is only 1 leader remaining. At most, Linkcat has 2 cultists on the Big team, and there's 1 remaining cultist on the Little team who is probably (but not necessarily) leaderless. This means 3 people who want Linkcat to live and 4 people who want Linkcat to die. So, we can win this with a 4-3 vote. In the best case scenario, Linkcat only has 1 cultist on his team, meaning it should be a 5-2 vote, so we have a margin of error in case people are inactive.

If Linkcat was telling the truth about his second target not going through, that leaves him with only 1 cultist - whoever he recruited last night. I think this is most likely to be kaempfer, given how he switched gears overnight to vote on PlayerOa instead of Linkcat. This leaves shockcannon as the Little team cultist, with no leader lol, but his incentive is to still vote for Linkcat such that he can win in the event that his leader is still alive.

So, that's that.

PlayerOa (1) - kaempfer13
Linkcat (1) - RootRanger

I kind of ignored this post because I already considered Root as leader at that time, but this is a pretty weak argument. Broadcasting as many mixed signals as I have makes any leader claim much less believable. The correct way to play as leader is to drop one or two solid breadcrumbs per cultist without any extra noise. The way I played the first half of the game was terrible as any faction, there's no way to tell the difference other than which faction you think I'd be more likely to throw as. And that's it, that's his entire basis for this lynch. He's barely even talked about anyone else, he's just pushing what he thinks is the easiest lynch.

He voted against no leaders, a clear anti-town move because there's no downside to eliminating the option. He also never claimed his N2 target, another anti-town move. Even if it's a duplicate it will increase the confidence in the check. I just can't see you as town right now, whether there are leaders or not.