Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[kaempfer13]

Also considering I learned he specifically leaderread me in that post it can actually be the inverse: He is on the small team, so if I were a leader, I would be big if true.

[Linkcat]

Can someone give me a TLDR of N1 claims? As far as I can see there have been nothing except me (and MW) on Root?

I never cared about him wanting a summary of all claims. My problem is his laserfocus on Root.
It will be hard to beat you over the head hard enough if you still havent seen it now. But given that even as a leader you want your rival lynched, it evidently isnt clear enough.

1. Oa clearly saw the ask to claim early for the low contributors (and also you, but it was clear you werent cooperating).
2. MW both very likely investigated root and treated him as a viable lynch. Then some stuff i will not reiterate, read the post.
3. Oa is very anxious about other results on Root.

And focusing on Root after already claiming does what exactly for him as leader? Why? For what reason? It serves no purpose.

I present to the thread the entire post history of Oa this game:


You're doing an olympic dive into a kiddie pool. Just accept that this is a man who joined while on vacation to fill out the signups, rolled town, and has done the absolute minimum.

I have a strong townread on you that's continued from yesterday, so I know for a fact that Oa was recruited on N1. I will never ever vote Oa this game.

[kaempfer13]

Ah, so you attempted to recruit him? Cuz at the very least there is def coolkid left as alternative. Granted, a terrible pick.
But actually the options are much wider as N1 recruits could just be registered just now, so it could even be mw technically. Just not Root andre or me, provided all claims so far are truthfull-

[kaempfer13]

Not to mention leader hitting other leader.

[RootRanger]

kaempfer, what do you consider to be the probability, from 0-100%, that Linkcat is a cult leader? And, what do you think it is for PlayerOa?

[kaempfer13]

I do not like quantifying confidence on feelings/educated guesses. And the purely mathematical outlook is abyssmal ofc.

But given that you asked me to, Id say 50% for both. The reason im focussing on Oa rn is that he wasnt even on the table before. And also less likely to deliberately throw, which about balances out the mountain of evidence against Linkcat (which includes a paniclynch on people he could have easily talked about earlier, just so someone mentions this as well).

[serprex]

50+50=100

That doesn't leave room for the chance I made everyone town & am randomly rolling cult leader actions

[serprex]

Oh you mean 50% between the two?

Forget I said anything

[kaempfer13]

1. you cant add probabilities for separate events like that.
2. yh I assumed the game was bastard enough already.

[kaempfer13]

Actually, I can't ignore how defensive Link is off his potential recruit. That about tips the scales.

Linkcat (2) - RootRanger, kaempfer13

[kaempfer13]

Also again, Oa's focus on root is sus as it builds on MW hints and voting tendency and includes an insecure question. Justification for the specific targeting priority outside of those things (which I asserted) is also absent.

[Linkcat]

Oa: Claims target, says he didn't have a particular reason for it, asks about other targets, and literally nothing else
kaempfer: Must be cult leader!

Please, just for one second look at it from the perspective of someone who only put ten minutes a day into this game, and it becomes a hundred times easier to read. Your stubborness may doom our faction, but at least I'll die being right. And honestly, that's more than enough for me.