Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[RootRanger]

Did that a while ago, that's 1 of 2 found.

Claim?

You realize I consider you to be a cult leader, right? Long post coming soon.

[RootRanger]

I've had more time to think about things (and not get recruited last night), and the case for lynching Linkcat is just as strong as before.

In a standard format, there's no reason for anyone, regardless of role, to claim that they're scum, as Linkcat has been doing. So you can chalk it up to shitposting. The difference with this format is that in the endgame, the leaders will potentially need to convince other players of their identity. For example, if the remaining 3 players in the final day phase include 1 civ, 1 cultist, and 1 leader, this isn't necessarily gg. If the remaining civ can be convincing enough, they can get the cultist to lynch their own leader. This is the sort of scenario where repeatedly broadcasting that you're a leader from the start of the game would be helpful. I think Linkcat was just counting on nobody realizing this, or nobody getting the votes to actually lynch him.

So what's the full picture look like? Linkcat is a leader, probably on the Big team given the early breadcrumb. We can hope the other leader is MW, and I think the odds of that aren't too bad given how hard he was gunning for me. Plus, the fact that nobody died in the night phase strengthens the case that there is only 1 leader remaining. At most, Linkcat has 2 cultists on the Big team, and there's 1 remaining cultist on the Little team who is probably (but not necessarily) leaderless. This means 3 people who want Linkcat to live and 4 people who want Linkcat to die. So, we can win this with a 4-3 vote. In the best case scenario, Linkcat only has 1 cultist on his team, meaning it should be a 5-2 vote, so we have a margin of error in case people are inactive.

If Linkcat was telling the truth about his second target not going through, that leaves him with only 1 cultist - whoever he recruited last night. I think this is most likely to be kaempfer, given how he switched gears overnight to vote on PlayerOa instead of Linkcat. This leaves shockcannon as the Little team cultist, with no leader lol, but his incentive is to still vote for Linkcat such that he can win in the event that his leader is still alive.

So, that's that.

PlayerOa (1) - kaempfer13
Linkcat (1) - RootRanger

[Linkcat]

Look, I get that you think I may have recruited shock and want to lynch me for insurance, but you, me, Oa, and andre can all easily win right now.

I'd rather not do this the hard way, but if you insist, so be it.

[kaempfer13]

Oa actually slipped in the night and was on the verge of it beforehand. Look again, my flip wasnt actually sudden. Unfortunately both leaders are alive and have votes on them, but town cant actually win anymore (if they arent then oa has much less history of trolling and Linkcat actually manages to be town somehow, but eh). So all thats left is fully solving the game for honor and hope the remaining leader recruits me.

[Linkcat]

I'm on mobile, just started my shift at work so it won't be pretty.

Here's the thing, Oa, CoolKid, and now dead W3 are all variables. We cannot get solid reads on them, regardless of how much you look.
Shock is unpredictable, but rarely a liar. If he's claiming cult, I'm willing to believe it. I'm down to hear how he isn't.
Andre and Kae are probably the most helpful, but that doesn't mean not a cultist. In fact, Andre wouldn't be a bad target for recruitment, but cultists don't really matter here. I don't get leader reads from either. Kae could've been recruited, but I think that's a bad recruit. Too active, too much attention.

I'm town. Not cultist yet either.

Link is semi confirmed leader.

As for Root, early game Root was the post judge. He sat back and decided who was useful publicly. This is a pretty power move from a leader. By forcing attention on certain people, he can hopefully influence the other leader. I think he wants kae or Andre to be recruited so he can kill them. Later, root gets pretty defensive on me from some pretty minor pressure. Root has played games with me in the past, and knows my reputation. He knows I have to fight tooth and nail to get anyone to listen to my proposals. Very interesting thing to defend.
According to Kae's Lynch log, and today's votes, Root hasn't started a wagon. He simply joins them. Maybe this is deadline/TZ conflicting, but Kae when we were scum we always piled on wagons and rarely started our own. as scum this is the best way to influence who gets killed without looking too sus.

Mws setup here was terrible given that he didnt make good on his promise and other problems Link pointed out, but this doesnt really matter. Mw still considered Root as a leader here, which makes it impossible for town!mw to have seen cultist (ofc he could be leader as well or (at this stage) swapped target for some ungodly reason, but he still offered the best setup for a leader to copy without pointing out their own cultist or taking a bigger leap of faith)

You're assuming Oa had even read the thread enough to formulate this fake claim.

Sorry for being inactive, but that’s unfortunately how I intend to roll this week.

I’ll provide you with some info, though. Root is town.

First to make a claim explicit, though MW waffled around a bit already. only reason to expect a cc would be if he were a leader.

Or he was inactive and wanted to appear to be at least a little useful.

Sorry for being inactive, but that’s unfortunately how I intend to roll this week.

I’ll provide you with some info, though. Root is town.

Why did you choose him? just genuinely curious.

@coolkid you already have 1 night worth of info (if town) and if you wait we'll take that as you making it easier for yourself to make a fakeclaim. Mind you, serp allows us to most likely have you as an extralynch if you dont contribute, so you might even survive the day

No real mechanical reasoning, really.

Evasive about the motive. My question was not as innocent as I made it look, in my opinion there was little reason to think Root would turn out to be a cultist. Main reason to do this claim would be to piggyback of MW. MW telegraphed that he didnt see cultist!Root, which made this claim fairly safeish. In the alternative case (MW not town or deviating from planned target) it still would serve to push MW further into lynching Root.

Or he was inactive and just didn't put much thought into it.

Can someone give me a TLDR of N1 claims? As far as I can see there have been nothing except me (and MW) on Root?

As I called out earlier, wrong sense of priorities from a towny. Oa being first to explicitly claim could not hope to catch someone in a lie. Vice versa however...

Or he just didn't see all the claims because he was inactive.

I'm sorry to burst your bubble kaempfer, but Oa is not coasting as a leader and waiting for everyone else to kill each other. He's on vacation.

[kaempfer13]

Can someone give me a TLDR of N1 claims? As far as I can see there have been nothing except me (and MW) on Root?

I never cared about him wanting a summary of all claims. My problem is his laserfocus on Root.
It will be hard to beat you over the head hard enough if you still havent seen it now. But given that even as a leader you want your rival lynched, it evidently isnt clear enough.

1.Oa clearly saw the ask to claim early for the low contributors (and also you, but it was clear you werent cooperating).
2.MW both very likely investigated root and treated him as a viable lynch. Then some stuff i will not reiterate, read the post.
3. Oa is very anxious about other results on Root.

[RootRanger]

I get the case for Oa, but surely the case for Linkcat is much stronger? Provided you're not his cultist, at least

[kaempfer13]

The thing about Linkcat is he's always ridiculously scummy. Except for my first game, where he actually was scum, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Oa doesnt deliberately selfsabotage, though he may do so on accident ofc.

[kaempfer13]

Also reminder that I wouldnt know whos cultist I am in absence of crumbs, so I would be generally defensive if I got freshly recruited and havent picked up a hint.

[andretimpa]

Then who was the cultist, pray tell?

It wasn't kae (my result tonight). Haven't read the wall of text, will do it tomorrow

[RootRanger]

Also reminder that I wouldnt know whos cultist I am in absence of crumbs, so I would be generally defensive if I got freshly recruited and havent picked up a hint.

But Linkcat left the breadcrumb that he's on the Big team - you were the one to point it out. Unless you no longer think that means anything?

[kaempfer13]

Also reminder that I wouldnt know whos cultist I am in absence of crumbs, so I would be generally defensive if I got freshly recruited and havent picked up a hint.

But Linkcat left the breadcrumb that he's on the Big team - you were the one to point it out. Unless you no longer think that means anything?

Fair, wasn't crazy relevant for my actual situation, so I didnt bother.