Alright, I guess it would be irresponsible of me to be
that much of an asshole.
So, let's put the players into 3 unordered levels of general skill.
Upper - Linkcat, kaempfer
Mid - Oa, andre, w3, Root
Lower - Mobian, MW, shock, coolkid
It's my belief that higher is better for recruit targets on Night 0. The reason is that the most important thing for cultists is to be able to identify who their leader is, and game solving ability is the best way to determine that. Also, the lower players are more likely to be lynched, and you don't want that. For people who want to avoid crossing targets, it's a good tactic to go after midrange players without a large presence in thread, who in this case would be w3 and Oa. I probably would have recruited Oa first if I was leader since he even has an excuse.
Now let's talk about reads. First, if Mobian was a leader, it's probable that he would breadcrumb his target in a similar way to the post that kaempfer pointed out to get him lynched. Unfortunately, we know he didn't recruit MW because of the w3 death, so i don't think he's leader. Next, shock's confusion at the start of the game about if there even are roles makes sense knowing that town didn't receive any PMs. I also believe that a recruited shock would play exactly the way he is right now. Of course he could just be trolling, but it's a slow and short game so I'll take any decent reads I can get. Then, coolkid. If he was leader, I would find it a little odd for him to target someone as quiet as w3, or to even send in a target at all, and also for serp to offer a free lynch on him. I think most would agree he's not a leader.
I crack my eggs middle out (more efficient)
Wrt kae's post just read it lol, it's a pretty good addition to the lore. He's basically claiming civ which... shouldn't surprise anyone
These quotes from Root N0 look like a town claim to me. While normally completely useless, this is actually a relevant claim because it's basically asking to be recruited, which you want as town because you have a higher chance of winning.
My leader reads are therefore narrowed down to Kaempfer, Oa, andre, and MW.
For Oa, it doesn't make much sense for him to target a low poster like w3 since he'd pretty much be giving up on his cult influencing the first half of the game. Andre I could see grabbing him N0, but he's not a good target N1 because of his terrible activity unless you're running the game like kaempfer is. Even then, you want to recruit people you read as not leader, and I'm sure kaempfer knows this and wouldn't recruit w3 (or Oa) N1 since he wouldn't be able to have a read on him. I could see it N0, though.
Now let's talk about MW. Out of all players in this game, I believe he would be the most likely to troll by recruiting shock. Getting w3 next as another trolly player fits, even with him being a bad choice since you wouldn't care about that with this playstyle. We know w3 was recruited N1, so that makes MW the most likely to target both the one confirmed cultist and also my top suspected cultist. Easy top leader read. Even better, after I had already come to this conclusion I saw the following post.
Lemme paint a scenario.
Just assume Link and Root are leaders.
N0
Root recruits W3 (familiar name, low chance of lynch)
Link recruits Shock (shitposting the game)
D1
Mobian dies as a clean town.
N1
Root targets ? (Gonna guess Andre due to root helping him)
Link targets W3 (again, shitposting his way through)
W3 dies as cultist.
I believe this makes the most sense. I'm willing to bet kae is being wagoned by link in hopes Root targeted kae N1, or to thin out town. I believe link and shock are in the same cult. I don't think link would target late, especially if he's trying to shit post his way through, and kae being an ultra active brings attention, risking a lynch.
This is actually a good breadcrumb if true, proud of you.
Finally, I'll talk about my kaempfer read, which is the only post I made before now that actually had any content whatsoever.
For everyone else, here's a chance to offer your thoughts on real strategy. I'll give an easy question and a hard one. Interested in seeing what people to have to say.
1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?
1. Noone died, so I take it that no crosstream occured (technically the rules didnt explicitly make clear what happens in a crosstream as opposed to nonsimultaneous recruitment). This leaves only holstering and targeting the other leader (2 1/9 chances) for having less than 2 (new cultists), so about 77% (rounding down where I should round up because of holstering and inactivity).
2. Town is not interested in seeing cultists lynched, in fact they are the only way to confirm that someone is not a leader. The reveal part is much more tricky, as we want leaders to cross streams, but also avoid wasting a lynch. Currently leaning towards claiming result only as lynch is imminent (to protect them, crazy, i know).
BMs are red,
TOs are blue.
From a certain point of view,
Big if true.
Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
RootRanger (1) - MasterWalks
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
The poem here is talking about a perspective slip. Calculating the probability of two cultists normally gives the same number kaempfer had. The important thing to note though, is that Root didn't ask what the general probabilities were. He asked how many YOU think there are. From my perspective as an unrecruited townsperson, I know that I wasn't targeted, and so I removed myself from the calculation. I determined that the chance of two recruitments was exactly 75%, which is the bottom of the range that Root gave. Now it's always possible that kaempfer just didn't think too hard about it, but this slip is reason enough for me to put him as the most likely second leader.
To summarize:
MW leader
N0 shock
N1 w3
Kaempfer leader
N0 w3
N1 andre/Root
Linkcat (4) - MasterWalks, andretimpa, kaempfer13, RootRanger
kaempfer13 (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (1) - Linkcat
Now, let's see them claims, boys.
Poll
