Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[kaempfer13]

FWIW with flipless and people not knowing who they are (going to) be allied with

On the bright side, this all around confusion gives the horrible vote turnout an actual chance of hitting anyway. And also its not as much work as it ought to be

Spoiler for lynchlog:

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
RootRanger (1) - MasterWalks

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
RootRanger (1) - MasterWalks
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) worldwideweb3
Mobian (1) kaempfer13

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - worldwideweb3
Mobian (2) - kaempfer13, RootRanger

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
Linkcat (2) - worldwideweb3, MasterWalks
Mobian (2) - kaempfer13, RootRanger

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
Linkcat (2) - worldwideweb3, MasterWalks
Mobian (2) - kaempfer13, RootRanger
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
Linkcat (2) - worldwideweb3, MasterWalks
Mobian (3) - kaempfer13, RootRanger, andretimpa
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon

[serprex]

https://martinascarpelli.com/egg-2

Day 2 has ended.

worldwideweb3's head was found in a squirrel's nest this morning. Police are still looking for the body

[kaempfer13]

Damn, that makes it extremely unlikely I was right, but at least there is still a maximum of  just 2 alive cultists.

[andretimpa]

The one time w3 doesn't ask for a doc

[kaempfer13]

For everyone else, here's a chance to offer your thoughts on real strategy. I'll give an easy question and a hard one. Interested in seeing what people to have to say.

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

1. Noone died, so I take it that no crosstream occured (technically the rules didnt explicitly make clear what happens in a crosstream as opposed to nonsimultaneous recruitment). This leaves only holstering and targeting the other leader (2 1/9 chances) for having less than 2 (new cultists), so about 77% (rounding down where I should round up because of holstering and inactivity).
2. Town is not interested in seeing cultists lynched, in fact they are the only way to confirm that someone is not a leader. The reveal part is much more tricky, as we want leaders to cross streams, but also avoid wasting a lynch. Currently leaning towards claiming result only as lynch is imminent (to protect them, crazy, i know).

BMs are red,
TOs are blue.
From a certain point of view,
Big if true.

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
RootRanger (1) - MasterWalks
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat

Given that I havent been recruited I can afford to point this out finally (but it also makes it less likely to be true). This could be a crumb that Linkcat is in the big end club.

[MasterWalks]

So either W3 was recruited N0 then targetted again last night, or he got double targetted tonight by both leaders.

There's no reason for a leader to target their own cultist right? That's just self harm as far as I can tell, but I want others opinions.

I heavily doubt he was hit by both leaders tonight, but I also wanna know; as a leader what's the strategy? Do they hit super actives players or do they go for the inactive ones? W3 wouldve been considered inactive, and if shock is telling the truth, that's another pretty inactive one. If there's a pattern, we can assume Andre or CoolKid is the other cultist (I'm not breadcrumbing here, truly speculating).

@kae, couldn't there be 3 cultist alive if w3 was hit by both leaders last night?

[kaempfer13]

im not counting leaders. n0 a maximum of 2 were recruited. double recruitment now would mean the number hasnt changed (order doesnt really matter for total numbers actually, just illustrating it for the scenario you asked about)

[kaempfer13]

if w3 was already a cultist, he was pretty comfortable voting Linkcat... Idk though, feels like half the players are gamethrowing anyway.

[MasterWalks]

Oh right. Definitely maximum of 2.

Linkcat (1) - MasterWalks

Why didn't we lynch him yesterday? He basically threw with that screenshot. Sure it could've been an unrelated PM, but this forum is so dead I'd honestly be surprised.

[MasterWalks]

if w3 was already a cultist, he was pretty comfortable voting Linkcat... Idk though, feels like half the players are gamethrowing anyway.

I don't think the cultist is notified of who recruited them. Therefore w3 voting link is probably just based on that screenshot

[kaempfer13]

andre is fairly active actually. Leader strategy would focus on not recruiting the other leader (there is a theory linking impact of role to activity or sth I guess) and otherwise getting the numbers advantage through lynching members of the other cult (new recruit vs killing cultist makes no difference in direct comparison to the other cult).

if w3 was already a cultist, he was pretty comfortable voting Linkcat... Idk though, feels like half the players are gamethrowing anyway.

I don't think the cultist is notified of who recruited them. Therefore w3 voting link is probably just based on that screenshot

Yh but if he believed in the screenshot, thats a 50% chance to lose instantly. Also it was in response to Link saying he recruited Root ftr.

[RootRanger]

Given that I havent been recruited I can afford to point this out finally (but it also makes it less likely to be true). This could be a crumb that Linkcat is in the big end club.

I tend not to read much into these sorts of things, but I can definitely see this being significant. So, Linkcat is bumped to the top of my list now. Could be that he's a cultist and not a cult leader, but leader is more likely.

There's no reason for a leader to target their own cultist right? That's just self harm as far as I can tell, but I want others opinions.

Correct, it would be really suboptimal play.

I heavily doubt he was hit by both leaders tonight, but I also wanna know; as a leader what's the strategy? Do they hit super actives players or do they go for the inactive ones? W3 wouldve been considered inactive, and if shock is telling the truth, that's another pretty inactive one. If there's a pattern, we can assume Andre or CoolKid is the other cultist (I'm not breadcrumbing here, truly speculating).

Main priority is to avoid targeting the rival leader. There's roughly equal value in targeting a civ versus targeting a rival cultist, but they'd probably prefer targeting a civ between the two options. But it's a bit complicated, since they can't guarantee their target is a civ - it could be the rival leader. Whereas targeting a rival cultist is still valuable and ensures that they're not hitting the rival leader. All else being equal, it should also be strictly better to target active players. I would speculate that the point of targeting inactive players was to avoid collision with the rival leader's targets, which they failed to do last night lol.