Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[kaempfer13]

@serp Does the cop ability tells you which cult someone is in?

I didn't though too deeply, but it seems the best strategy for town is to not lynch people we know are cultists, since we want to hit the leaders.

I was about to post how I wasn't sure if NK was even a thing before you told me to read the rules. I deleted the draft and went to read the rules in shame.

Link is an easy lynch right now. In fact, he's really the only one that anyone can fully scumread since no one got information last night. I'm voting root because he's a low poster and I want to apply pressure. I'm sure Mobian is voting CoolKid for the same reason. The other people I name dropped are also low posters, and the only one with an excuse is Oa. Im wanting to start a wagon on any of these people to get them to talk. Most likely, we lynch Linkcat today no matter what.

Post count or not, the only real contribution so far has been from andre. And he wasn't even digging too deeply.

For everyone else, here's a chance to offer your thoughts on real strategy. I'll give an easy question and a hard one. Interested in seeing what people to have to say.

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

RR generally focusses on mechanics when attempting to solve, which he does here (and when evaluating responses later). keeping in mind his approval of timpas post, especially his 2nd question is important for both probing for reactions and later agree on the best plan for cops with their wincon in mind (which he would want to keep to a minimum if he were in a cult).

[MasterWalks]

I'll give a better breakdown when I'm off work in 4 hours or so, but the just of my scumread on him:
He's playing judge on people's post. He keeps claiming x person is making good posts, without actually making a helpful one himself. He's sitting back, getting just enough posts to not get heat for inactivity but isn't saying much. The post you quoted with his 2 questions is the only legitimate post he's made. The first question is dumb af. That's a burner question because the answer cannot be known and there's only 3 options for answers.
The second question has started good discussion on what town should do, but tbh I'm reading more as he wants to know what town will do. If he's leader, and we agreed that we will expose a cultist on discovery, he could totally doc himself one day by exposing his own cultist. He's my biggest natural scumread, where as Link is the biggest most possible scumread due to obvious reasons. At this stage, I'm willing to bet leaders are Link and Root. I have no reads for cultists but I don't think cultists matter yet.

[Linkcat]

Root can't be leader, I recruited him last night.

[worldwideweb3]

Root can't be leader, I recruited him last night.

liar

[worldwideweb3]

i obvs dont have much time like most others. Town win when cult leaders die right?

Linkcat (1) - www3

[shockcannon]

okay i read my inbox. it appears i've been recruited.

[shockcannon]

is there a way to be unrecruited? or once recruited you can no longer go back to town.

[RootRanger]

I'll give a better breakdown when I'm off work in 4 hours or so, but the just of my scumread on him:
He's playing judge on people's post. He keeps claiming x person is making good posts, without actually making a helpful one himself. He's sitting back, getting just enough posts to not get heat for inactivity but isn't saying much. The post you quoted with his 2 questions is the only legitimate post he's made. The first question is dumb af. That's a burner question because the answer cannot be known and there's only 3 options for answers.
The second question has started good discussion on what town should do, but tbh I'm reading more as he wants to know what town will do. If he's leader, and we agreed that we will expose a cultist on discovery, he could totally doc himself one day by exposing his own cultist. He's my biggest natural scumread, where as Link is the biggest most possible scumread due to obvious reasons. At this stage, I'm willing to bet leaders are Link and Root. I have no reads for cultists but I don't think cultists matter yet.

Isn't saying much? I got the ball rolling on actual strategic discussion. Prior to that, a prevailing strategy (aside from andre's post) was "No lynch for now then bang bang bang tomorrow night". Most of the remaining discussion was just eggposting.

The point of question 1 was to make sure everyone is paying attention and knows probability. The correct answer is 2 cultists, with approximately 75-80% certainty under perfect activity. Note that 2 is the upper bound, rather than 4, because cultists are different from cult leaders. An important distinction, since leaders are not revealed as cultists by the cop targeting. Leaders also need to be lynched in order to win, whereas lynching cultists is optional.

As for question 2, would you prefer we just... don't discuss strategy? Go back to the plan of no lynch and let serprex role the dice?

[kaempfer13]

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) worldwideweb3
Mobian (1) kaempfer13

[serprex]

is there a way to be unrecruited? or once recruited you can no longer go back to town.

Huis clos. Once you start cracking eggs a particular way there's no going back

[andretimpa]

The second question has started good discussion on what town should do, but tbh I'm reading more as he wants to know what town will do. If he's leader, and we agreed that we will expose a cultist on discovery, he could totally doc himself one day by exposing his own cultist. He's my biggest natural scumread, where as Link is the biggest most possible scumread due to obvious reasons. At this stage, I'm willing to bet leaders are Link and Root. I have no reads for cultists but I don't think cultists matter yet.

Claiming a cop result should in no way be a confirmation that you are a townie (and hence not a leader), since people lie on the internet and there are no flips this game (totally not a bastard).

After thinking a bit more I think we should weight down the possible value of trying to cross the results of everyone's ability uses and on which point of the game these results should be revealed: maybe doing that with just one ability use is too easy for the cults to play around, but time is also not on town's side

[RootRanger]

Claiming a cop result should in no way be a confirmation that you are a townie (and hence not a leader), since people lie on the internet and there are no flips this game (totally not a bastard).

After thinking a bit more I think we should weight down the possible value of trying to cross the results of everyone's ability uses and on which point of the game these results should be revealed: maybe doing that with just one ability use is too easy for the cults to play around, but time is also not on town's side

Not sure what you mean exactly? Investigation is absolutely a vital tool. The ideal scenario is to have multiple players in disagreement about an investigation result, such that we'll know one of them is lying (and likely a leader).

Anyways, we're just past the halfway mark for Day 1, so here's my current vote.

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - worldwideweb3
Mobian (2) - kaempfer13, RootRanger