Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[kaempfer13]

To clarify crossed streams: the target dies a townie

Does it make a difference?

Not really, if someone dies in the night they were recruited twice, only lynch targets are worth considering investigating amongst the dead at all (in fact even that doesnt help as far as I can see)

[Linkcat]

For everyone else, here's a chance to offer your thoughts on real strategy. I'll give an easy question and a hard one. Interested in seeing what people to have to say.

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

1. Noone died, so I take it that no crosstream occured (technically the rules didnt explicitly make clear what happens in a crosstream as opposed to nonsimultaneous recruitment). This leaves only holstering and targeting the other leader (2 1/9 chances) for having less than 2 (new cultists), so about 77% (rounding down where I should round up because of holstering and inactivity).
2. Town is not interested in seeing cultists lynched, in fact they are the only way to confirm that someone is not a leader. The reveal part is much more tricky, as we want leaders to cross streams, but also avoid wasting a lynch. Currently leaning towards claiming result only as lynch is imminent (to protect them, crazy, i know).

BMs are red,
TOs are blue.
From a certain point of view,
Big if true.

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
RootRanger (1) - MasterWalks
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat

[MasterWalks]

Cool64Kid (1) - Mobian
kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
worldwideweb3 (1) - MasterWalks

q.q

[shockcannon]

put my vote on no lynch

[Mobian]

You want a random person to die??

[RootRanger]

kae and andre have the best responses. I'm weighing the option of reveal-but-not-lynch (RBNL?). I think it depends on the style of the leaders themselves - whether they would target a known member of the rival cult, or try to recruit a new member. Also depends on whether they are more afraid of the other cult or the civs. Maybe the latter in the early game and the former in the late? Open to thoughts from others.

[PlayerOa]

Kaempfer still salty about my optimal usage of the Anubis role. I do actually want to be converted though, gives a higher chance of winning. Oa, you got me N1 right?

Got yo back.

MW, there’s no need to vote pressure me into speaking more - I’ll be posting just as much as time allows me to. Which happens to be a bare minimum. You better lynch me instead if you dislike that.

[MasterWalks]

Kaempfer still salty about my optimal usage of the Anubis role. I do actually want to be converted though, gives a higher chance of winning. Oa, you got me N1 right?

Got yo back.

MW, there’s no need to vote pressure me into speaking more - I’ll be posting just as much as time allows me to. Which happens to be a bare minimum. You better lynch me instead if you dislike that.

?
I said you're invading Italy so you have an excuse. No need to pressure you... Unless you want me to?
I'd rather pressure w3. I'm starting to get worried new guy is inactive so better to wait for modkill then waste time on pressure.
Shock is a possible pressure, and I don't think he's as clueless as he's trying to sound but shock is way more fun to pressure late game.

[kaempfer13]

Also, only reply/agree with me if you're town. If your scum, go ahead and disagree

I mean, kind of a scum move to try to force the rest of us into a binary decision. Sounds almost.... cultish.....

Omg. This could be Mobian breadcrumbing he was going to recruit MW.

[kaempfer13]

reads
town for now (not leaders)
timpa
Rootranger


nothing to go off
cool64kid
w3
Oa

idfk
lynchedcat

Cultist
MW

Leader
Mobian

honorable category:
wtf
Linkcat
MW
shock

[kaempfer13]

I forgot: shock is also not a leader

[MasterWalks]

@kae explain your RootRanger read plz. I'm getting big scum reads on him