Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[serprex]

Are there roles? Like wtf is happening this game.

Yes

The reason Linkcat felt sorry for cool64kid is that given the deadline for sign ups being April 1st I hatched the idea for a rather troll format. So as to wtf is happening this game.. lolol

[Mobian]

Are there roles? Like wtf is happening this game.

In the event you're not trolling, I'll re-explain. There are 3 factions in this game. Small end Cult, Big End Cult, and Town. The Cults start the game with only their respective leaders. Everyone else starts as town. All townies are cops. Every night Cult  Leaders can target a player to attempt to recruit them. In the event they choose a cultist, that cultist dies. If you become a cultist, you lose cop abilities. Cult Leaders can only be killed via lynch.

[andretimpa]

Are there roles? Like wtf is happening this game.

All townies are cops. This is game is chaos. Enjoy.

[MasterWalks]

2-4 is literally the only answer (pretty sure that was a link shitpost). 2 leaders guarantee, 0-2 people recruited. I'll say 3, an active leader and an inactive one.

Early game I don't think we lynch cultists. Maybe later to avoid them becoming majority, but if you find one, you run the risk of getting recruited before you can share it. I think it would be wise to lynch Mafia vets, but no reason to lynch a CoolKid cultist, or a w3 cultist.

By my math, which is terrible, scum have a giant advantage right now. We can only lynch 1 person at a time, they can recruit 2 at a time. If they recruited 2 last night, we lynch a town, and they recruit 2 more, we lose.

Tldr: if they recruited 2 cultist last night, pretty sure it's lylo right now

[MasterWalks]

Ok so not lylo since it's not a majority thing, but we're in a bad bad spot if that scenario does play out

[andretimpa]

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

1. I think both leaders used their abilities and odds of none of them hitting each other is pretty good, so I'd say 4 with good confidence.
2. I think the best play is to reveal the info and not lynch them (let the rival leader kill them in N2 if they want). I'm open to arguments against this tho.

[Mobian]

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

1. I think both leaders used their abilities and odds of none of them hitting each other is pretty good, so I'd say 4 with good confidence.
2. I think the best play is to reveal the info and not lynch them (let the rival leader kill them in N2 if they want). I'm open to arguments against this tho.

This could actually be a solid play for town. Just sit back and let the warring factions handle the dirty work.

[kaempfer13]

For everyone else, here's a chance to offer your thoughts on real strategy. I'll give an easy question and a hard one. Interested in seeing what people to have to say.

1. How many cultists do you think currently exist? What is your level of certainty in your answer?
2. Let's say you find a cultist in Night 1. Do you lynch them the next day or choose someone else? Do you reveal this information at all?

1. Noone died, so I take it that no crosstream occured (technically the rules didnt explicitly make clear what happens in a crosstream as opposed to nonsimultaneous recruitment). This leaves only holstering and targeting the other leader (2 1/9 chances) for having less than 2 (new cultists), so about 77% (rounding down where I should round up because of holstering and inactivity).
2. Town is not interested in seeing cultists lynched, in fact they are the only way to confirm that someone is not a leader. The reveal part is much more tricky, as we want leaders to cross streams, but also avoid wasting a lynch. Currently leaning towards claiming result only as lynch is imminent (to protect them, crazy, i know).

[andretimpa]

@MW You also need to take into account that the 2 cults are rivals. They still have to eliminate each other to win and even if the whole town gets overrun by cultists, the game is not over.

[MasterWalks]

@MW You also need to take into account that the 2 cults are rivals. They still have to eliminate each other to win and even if the whole town gets overrun by cultists, the game is not over.

Oh no I get that, but the goal as town is to win as town. I don't want to win as a pleb cultist

[serprex]

To clarify crossed streams: the target dies a townie

[andretimpa]

To clarify crossed streams: the target dies a townie

Does it make a difference?