Elements Mafia 78 - by serprex

[kaempfer13]

Explain (not the english part). Also, does this mean you are confident there is a leader between you, MW and Mobian?

About mw: I believe his slipup was genuine, but lets suppose (and hope). Leader MWs  targets necessarily involves w3 and 1 other target. If it was shock, it was his first recruit, else 2nd. he uses moon logic sometimes, so I cannot safely exclude it I guess. Alternatively he picked up any other leader (not exclusive with the following category obv) or one of Oa, Link, coolkid.

[kaempfer13]

Sorry wrong way around. he either recruited shock or w3 first, then someone else or w3.

[RootRanger]

I think everything short of Oas input has been said about that affair.

Look, I get that you think I may have recruited shock and want to lynch me for insurance, but you, me, Oa, and andre can all easily win right now.

I'd rather not do this the hard way, but if you insist, so be it.

I find this post a bit puzzling, not that I expect you to actually explain it. But your only reads that you have explained as of today are townreads on me and Oa.

Is the vote on Root omgus?

He's saying he's a leader and recruited me, Oa, and andre. And now thinks I'm the other leader for voting on him. Of course, no explanation on how w3 could have died if Linkcat's targets were me, Oa, and andre.

Hypothetical question btw, if MW really was leader, what were his targets?

You tell me. But it looks like it was shock and w3. Unless shock was your target, but he seems to think otherwise.

[kaempfer13]

The "someone else" targets are all pretty crappy btw, so a leader target does not seem absurd. Otherwise Oa seems like the most likely to not be a liability out of those.

[shockcannon]

someone confirmed www3 was cultist after first night I'm pretty sure. So www3 and I aren't on the same team and weren't recruited by the same person. Unless someone lied.....but who would do that.

[kaempfer13]

yh the leader that didnt pick you, picked w3 right away. thats what i said.

[kaempfer13]

well, a thing speaking in favor of MW/Mobian leader is that far too few people behave like new cultists. There should be 2 more than we could possibly trace outside ofleaders targeting one another or being dead already. Yet Root, Link and I started the day too aggressively for disoriented cultists and i can confirm that timpas activity drop started as he was still not successfuly recruited.

[Linkcat]

So let's take a look at every possible recruitment from N1, given Mobian was dead, w3 was a cultist, and shock is cultist.

MW - > Kae
MW - > Andre
MW - > Link
MW - > Root
MW - > CK
MW - > Oa
Kae - > MW
Kae - > Andre
Kae - > Link
Kae - > Root
Kae - > CK
Kae - > Oa
Andre - > MW
Andre - > Kae
Andre - > Link
Andre - > Root
Andre - > CK
Andre - > Oa
Link - > MW
Link - > Kae
Link - > Andre
Link - > Root
Link - > CK
Link - > Oa
Link - > Missed
Root - > MW
Root - > Kae
Root - > Andre
Root - > Link
Root - > CK
Root - > Oa
CK - > MW
CK - > Kae
CK - > Andre
CK - > Link
CK - > Root
CK - > Oa
Oa - > MW
Oa - > Kae
Oa - > Andre
Oa - > Link
Oa - > Root
Oa - > CK

Now it's extremely unlikely that CK is leader, or that anybody picked him. We can disregard these possibilities unless things get really fucky tomorrrow. From your point of view, we can also exclude you from both, and andre from the target.

MW - > Link
MW - > Root
MW - > Oa
Andre - > MW
Andre - > Link
Andre - > Root
Andre - > Oa
Link - > MW
Link - > Root
Link - > Oa
Link - > Missed
Root - > MW
Root - > Link
Root - > Oa
Oa - > MW
Oa - > Link
Oa - > Root

Me, Root, and andre all lynched MW. I think you also agree I'm not cultist.

MW - > Oa
Andre - > Root
Andre - > Oa
Link - > Root
Link - > Oa
Link - > Missed
Root - > Oa
Oa - > MW
Oa - > Root

Now, let's say I'm town and checked Root.

MW - > Oa
Andre - > Oa
Root - > Oa
Oa - > MW

If I'm town then my Oa non leader read is legitimate, and I can only conclude that he is cultist. I also believe that MW was leader, and I pick Root as the other leader over andre because he's being proactive.

Now, let's say I'm leader.

Link - > Root
Link - > Oa
Link - > Missed

I'm currently trying to kill Root. Add the other two options to the possibilities for me as town, and we get this.

MW - > Oa
Andre - > Oa
Root - > Oa
Oa - > MW
Link - > Oa
Link - > Missed

Can we agree on these worlds as a starting point?

[Linkcat]

I think everything short of Oas input has been said about that affair.

Look, I get that you think I may have recruited shock and want to lynch me for insurance, but you, me, Oa, and andre can all easily win right now.

I'd rather not do this the hard way, but if you insist, so be it.

I find this post a bit puzzling, not that I expect you to actually explain it. But your only reads that you have explained as of today are townreads on me and Oa.

Is the vote on Root omgus?

He's saying he's a leader and recruited me, Oa, and andre. And now thinks I'm the other leader for voting on him. Of course, no explanation on how w3 could have died if Linkcat's targets were me, Oa, and andre.

No, I was referring to my previous offer to give the remaining leader a majority.

[kaempfer13]

something doesnt quite seem right about all of your exclusions, but Ill need some time to wrap my head around it. I do think you forgot leaders recruiting each other, invalidating our checks.

[Linkcat]

MW - > Andre
Link - > Andre
Root - > Andre
Oa - > Andre
MW - > Root
Andre - > Root
Link - > Root
Oa - > Root

These are the possible leader pairs for invalidating checks. Now, this means that the leader being recruited must have targeted shock N0 and a very inactive w3 N1. Do you really think either Root or Andre would have done that?

[Linkcat]

There are also the worlds where two people both recruited a very inactive w3 N1, but those are even more ridiculous.