Author

MasterWalks · « **Reply #1164 on:** July 27, 2021, 10:34:47 pm »

If Oa is scum we lose. Oa should be trident target.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1165 on:** July 27, 2021, 10:39:54 pm »

im under almost all circumstances against nl when theres conftown around (since we just lose the free read), but this might be the situation where its appropriate since we cant lynch him that day anyway and he would be topscumread obv (and yh in that if scenario we hardly care that mw isnt voting, since he has to be scum for us to think about nl).

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1166 on:** July 27, 2021, 10:45:35 pm »

Quote from: MasterNoob on July 27, 2021, 10:34:02 pm

Quote from: rob77dp on July 27, 2021, 10:28:22 pm
Quote from: MasterNoob on July 27, 2021, 10:23:39 pm
Quote from: rob77dp
soon you're townreading kae?
I only town read you and serp. Kae lands on N. KDZ and Sky land N-. W3 and Oa land W
What about Poke?

And what do you mean by mafia affording to lose someone of Oa is scum, based on math?

Forgot about Poke. Actually put him at N just cuz of how lost he seems.
So it's 5:3 right now right? If Oa is scum, it's goes 3:3. That's a loss more often then not but I suppose it's possible to get out. If I get trident, Oa kills someone, and NK happens it's GG.

This can be circumvented by Subaru (or a family member) blocking oa this night.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1167 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:20:43 pm »

Oops, I forgot about rushia vig. that kinda changes everything.

skyironsword · « **Reply #1168 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:37:22 pm »

Why do we keep deciding not to kill w3? Am I missing something?

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1169 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:38:50 pm »

if rushia is scum and has seen an unclear town (being) visit(ing) (by) someone and gura is forced to target clear town with heal and town!mw with vig, we lose immediately if scum just shoots 2 uncleared town and gura shoots town!mw.
So we do need to assume at least one of rushia!town or mw!scum for this plan to not result in instant loss.

worldwideweb3 · « **Reply #1170 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:40:42 pm »

Quote from: skyironsword on July 27, 2021, 11:37:22 pm

Why do we keep deciding not to kill w3? Am I missing something?

because others know im town

worldwideweb3 · « **Reply #1171 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:42:39 pm »

Quote from: kaempfer13 on July 27, 2021, 11:38:50 pm

if rushia is scum and has seen an unclear town (being) visit(ing) (by) someone and gura is forced to target clear town with heal and town!mw with vig, we lose immediately if scum just shoots 2 uncleared town and gura shoots town!mw.
So we do need to assume at least one of rushia!town or mw!scum for this plan to not result in instant loss.

what if gura is scum and doesnt kill mw?
Also, what if person meant to block Oa is mafia too?

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1172 on:** July 27, 2021, 11:51:12 pm »

Quote from: worldwideweb3 on July 27, 2021, 11:42:39 pm

Quote from: kaempfer13 on July 27, 2021, 11:38:50 pm
if rushia is scum and has seen an unclear town (being) visit(ing) (by) someone and gura is forced to target clear town with heal and town!mw with vig, we lose immediately if scum just shoots 2 uncleared town and gura shoots town!mw.
So we do need to assume at least one of rushia!town or mw!scum for this plan to not result in instant loss.

what if gura is scum and doesnt kill mw?
Also, what if person meant to block Oa is mafia too?

Gura is the one whos kill we are directing here and also our only doc this night. if they are scum we need to shoot scum to not lose. Hm, thats actually just as bad.
Actually my math had been wrong all along too. if mw is town and gura shoots him we actually end up at parity for the dayphase (save for docsave which is easy to dodge when gura has to telegraph a kill), so that alone is enough to lose. The situation is even more dire than I thought.
Aqua and subaru both being scum has a lower conditional probability and actually doesnt really seem scarier than the other scenarios, but its really bad. Hm, we probably really need to request shots at people we actually think are scum.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1173 on:** July 28, 2021, 01:05:40 am »

Spoiler for lynchlog:

skyironsword · « **Reply #1174 on:** July 28, 2021, 01:18:13 am »

I like using trident on w3 and telling Oa to wait. This also means we don't have to RB Oa tonight, unless we expect mafia to double vig.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1175 on:** July 28, 2021, 01:56:46 am »

So day1 made w3/OA w/w unlikely and in case of w3 town points to OA and kdz due to relative apathy in face of all town trains.
I'm singling out w3 a bit here, since he's the unflipped one that was in the greatest danger yet on both days.

Spoiler for exploring w3 wolfworld day 2:

Spoiler for Exploring w3 town:

So wagonomics-wise it looks like kdz is a strong candidate for any team I'm considering, poke fits in any team also by sheer lack of associations and MW didnt strike me as suspicious at all.
Its unfortunate that it looks like at most 1 scum was ever in danger at all, makes it a bit hard to evaluate competing wagons and thus wagonomics help less overall than they usually would.

Poll

Who played the best mafia?

Author

MasterWalks

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306419#msg1306419

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306420#msg1306420

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306421#msg1306421

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306422#msg1306422

skyironsword

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306423#msg1306423

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306424#msg1306424

worldwideweb3

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306425#msg1306425

worldwideweb3

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306426#msg1306426

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306427#msg1306427

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306428#msg1306428

skyironsword

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306429#msg1306429

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=68254.msg1306430#msg1306430