Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat

[skyironsword]

Is everyone still good with FTW'ing shock?

[Linkcat]

This is doubly fitting, because not only did Sub declare himself the first to die, but Kiryu Coco is the first (and only) talent to graduate out of everyone in this setup.

[skyironsword]

This is doubly fitting, because not only did Sub declare himself the first to die, but Kiryu Coco is the first (and only) talent to graduate out of everyone in this setup.

Should've added Chris to the setup.

[Linkcat]

Yes, the one with the absolute least material to make abilities from.

[PlayerOa]

So this is the first time I've been in danger of getting lynched since.. like ever. Will be interesting to have a retrospective look on voting patterns now that I know that Sub is town. Seems likely to me that at least some mafia just chilled out and watched the world burn from afar, with both trains (sub and me) being town - this is an interesting perspective for sure.

[skyironsword]

Yes, the one with the absolute least material to make abilities from.

Yeah, that's the spirit.

[Linkcat]

Damn, Oa really just dropped that subtle flex on everyone.

[MasterWalks]

*scratches neck* hey Kae, got any more of those lynch logs

[skyironsword]

Damn, Oa really just dropped that subtle flex on everyone.

Oa confirmed town, thanks Link.

[PlayerOa]

Damn, Oa really just dropped that subtle flex on everyone.

Guess that’s the consequence on neither being very good nor very bad at this game, middle of the pack and everything.

[MasterWalks]

I intend to stay in the bottom 4 posters at all times of this game.

Why tho

[serprex]

There's ~29% doc is scum. & ~29% chance that bloop is scum. So ~48% 1 of the protectors are scum

Code: [Select]

>>> scum = 3/11
>>> def chance_of_protect(bloop, doc):return ((1-scum)*bloop)+(1-(1-scum)*bloop)*(1-scum)*doc
...
>>> chance_of_protect(.9, .6)
0.8052892561983471
>>> chance_of_protect(.9, .7)
0.8304132231404959
>>> chance_of_protect(1, .7)
0.8661157024793389
>>> chance_of_protect(1, .6)
0.8462809917355372

Think I got the math right (chance of bloop protecting, plus chance of doc protecting when bloop not protecting) maybe I should be outputting multiple columns for each scenario of bloop-is-scum or doc-is-scum

But seems pretty good to go with something between 90% & 100% bloop protection with 60% to 70% doc protection. Depends how much we value getting my check on rob versus pushing envelope to bait a blocked NK. If not protecting me, protect Torb 70% of the time or rob 30% of the time

Trying to keep doc proc low to have good odds I can be doc target N2 if I survive N1