Elements Mafia 77 - by Linkcat

[rob77dp]

Ok, so in digging through some kae posts, of which I'll do the specifics shortly, I came across quite a bit of early game back-and-forth between kae and sky... if that stuff if w/w then kudos to them for the theater. There is a deafening dearth of kae/kdz and kae/www3 interaction posts I think compared to how much sky/kae went around with each other, feels like with how many posts sky and www3 have the simple explanation is that kae/www3 did enough talking elsewhere that they didn't have as much in-thread contact as each had with most other players (www3 and sky are top posters).

Really feeling the kill should be on www3, and not sky. I'll see where I land once i wrap the rest of the follow-ups here though.

[rob77dp]

This feels like kae is legit needing to miss EOD and justifies parking his vote on timpa, splitting with where teammate kdz is voting (who also doesn't move rest of the phase). Interestingly does kdz park on a teammate ?scum?www3 like that and peace out? I think that's possible.

I get the vibe of possible www3 being kae's teammate from this.

Sorry guys, I didn't do nearly as much as I meant to today. Can't be around for EoD after all either, since my visitor comes a bit later than expected, so we definitely want to use that time. Theoretically this would give me some time before noon to work on this, but I got some other things to prepare in rl as well.

But yh these trains are like night and day, 2 confirmed town on the one side and several people that i wanted to take another look at on the other. If it's gonna be like this i suppose the decision is easy, even if i wanted w3 dead the day before.

worldwideweb3 (4) - PlayerOa, timpa, skyironsword, killsdazombies
timpa (5) - rob77dp, worldwideweb3, MasterNoob, serprex, kaempfer13

[rob77dp]

I could see sky, Oa, kdz tbh. But I am nowhere near the teambuilding stage myself.

Would scum!kae really put both his teammates in a trio like that this early in the game? It's possible but I feel more likely he'd feel obligated to put at least one (kdz - check) but shy away from naming BOTH. Leans me again toward sky likely town...

[rob77dp]

I'm beginning to suspect a mafia member among kae/kdz/poke, but I think all theoretical teams at this point have to include either w3 or Oa. Any chance we can shoot them both? Ideally, the team is w3/Oa/MW and we can just lynch them all sequentially, but I don't expect things to go that smoothly.

Like... does sky make this post at that point of the game listing both teammates first in her post's opening trio? I read this a tad more likely sky is town.

[rob77dp]

So day1 made w3/OA w/w unlikely and in case of w3 town points to OA and kdz due to relative apathy in face of all town trains.
I'm singling out w3 a bit here, since he's the unflipped one that was in the greatest danger yet on both days.

Spoiler for exploring w3 wolfworld day 2:

It kinda went over my head how rob and serp at first really went after w3, so bussing after being faced with conftown voting w3 actually isnt completely out of the question, but the other votes only started appearing after conftown actually abandonded that train. the first not already confirmed at that stage votes to appear on him are Oa (not w/w see day1) and timpa (now confirmed town). In case rob+serp hadnt excluded the possibility of switching back at that point, that would probably the point when scumpartners would debate a bus or going in for the save. Considering the later votes on cw are town, teammates would have to either have bussed or stood by, so that would be within sky, kdz, poke. Which actually doesnt look like that weird a world if Oa is town actually. Hm.

Spoiler for Exploring w3 town:

This was my gutreaction when i walked into all townleans on timpa and a bunch of people I dont trust on w3. In that case Oa is the only scumcandidate that ever was in danger at any point. As I said above all towntrains also speaks for scum not needing to do much, hence Oa,kdz and me who didnt move around much should be looked at (and Poke to a lesser degree).
A thing that confuses me a bit is that Sky has been part of pretty much any train that ever existed. I'm not quite sure what to make of it. It obv goes counter the "not moving around much"-theory, but still implies a lack of care in a different way.

So wagonomics-wise it looks like kdz is a strong candidate for any team I'm considering, poke fits in any team also by sheer lack of associations and MW didnt strike me as suspicious at all.
Its unfortunate that it looks like at most 1 scum was ever in danger at all, makes it a bit hard to evaluate competing wagons and thus wagonomics help less overall than they usually would.

The Day 2 if-wolf-www3 spoiler there... if www3 really is town (kae would have know at that point, duh) then would kae really outline a world where www3 flipping green has kae saying he'd set sights on both his teammates (kdz has flipped, we're currently considering if sky - so kae would have then named both his partners in a town!www3 world,,, of course at that point in time NOBODY would have been able to foresee where the game now sits). This is more lean to me that www3 more scum equity than sky from kae spew.

[rob77dp]

If no vig on mw then block oa & trident w3 & vote Oa if w3 town

That would lose in case rushia is scum and w3 town. then again scum having 2 vigs seems a bit much and Oa's scumequity goes way up if w3 town.

Oh hmmm I find this interesting because Rushia is www3 right? If they are scum teammates kae would know that. I'm not sure how much to read into it being kae wanting to dissuade a plan that kills a possible scum!ww3 -VS- he genuinely is not aware yet that www3 is Rushia (that would of course be a case of www3 being town). This probably is just a push then for me to read into either way...... 

(also something like 5 replies into this I realize this could have gone as a single longer post, maybe with spoilers.... some people prefer that some hate it //shrug// too late now)

[rob77dp]

So if we are gonna shoot, which I mostly prefer, out of the options given i would prefer OA over w3  and kdz out of kdz/poke.

Weird here, at first I thought role priority would result in this suggestion from kae being likely result of his suggested FTW snipe on teammate!kdz not happening if Gura were to Trident Oa... however, it isn't. Reading through farther though, there were quite a few scum!equity targets in discussion (kdz flipped already, and www3 has plenty of equity still) that I could see kae feeling a need to advocate a save / kill on one of each teammate and considering www3 as more valuable than kdz. Seems unlikely to me he goes with these target preferences if www3 is town as that would be advocating to kill a teammate only?  (What might I be missing though)

[rob77dp]

well that narrows down my teams to exactly mw/w3, just as kdz spew implied. additionally to sky read not sounding w/w, the continous pushing of w3 by sky excludes that team and sky/mw is not w/w due to mw pushing sky at several points too.
Not that i really expect anyone to look at teams that dont involve me 

worldwideweb3 (2) - skyironsword, kaempfer13
kaempfer13 (1) - worldwideweb3

This was kae's last game post. One of the purest WIFOM forms in mafia I think.... a lame-wolf on his way out (likely at that point) posting who he thinks is / isn't a remaining wolf. Is it anti-spew intentionally or a double-fake and pretending to anti-spew as spew? It was pretty early in the day phase though so it wasn't QUITE a sure-kill of kae on the table (as the rest of the day's events would prove when they played out)...

[rob77dp]

finally, atleast we got one, phew.

Hell yeah!!

Sorry I killed kdz, www3

I intended to check a bunch of past www3 reactions to a scum dying when he was town / scum etc. Didn't make it very far, but suffice to say as I already pointed out once this feels very subdued from www3. Like where's the jovial meme picture to accompany faked deadpan - or actual excitement seeing first red flip? Dunno, a flimsy way to read a kill, but I'm just looking around at all I can. Fading fast / tired though

[rob77dp]

Verdict:
I lean/prefer killing www3. I think there's enough evidence that one could argue either side in the case, however I find there more evidence and louder points in favor of final scum being www3 over sky. Also, if I come out gunning for www3 lynch early in the game, and let a 3-way dice roll push me away from sniping him early game, then get hoodwinked by scum!www3 late game will eat me up inside more than simply being wrong on a scumread.

Ultimately up to you though MW. We can share in the glory or split the shame one way or the other I guess.

[skyironsword]

That does put a smile on my face.

[rob77dp]

That does put a smile on my face.

I mean, from your POV if you're not killed you win as either traction right?