Elements Mafia 76 - by serprex

[Linkcat]

Naii, please save me from this hell by giving me a reads list.

What, you don't like it?

Spoiler for Reads:

n+
Linkcat: Bread/shitposts aside, he seems to give me rather town-ish vibes, especially given his argument for his vote on Annele. I've expressed this reads to me as town previously as well.

n
worldwideweb3: D2 readslist aside, nothing really stands out to me. I can't see many posts that aren't somehow meaningless but from else there is he's leaning further towards town than he does maf. Still not sure what I want to think of w3.

TheonlyrealBeef: From what I've observed there's nothing that leads me either way. It's not even feeling like he's going both ways, it's just a mere nothing to me.

RootRanger: We coincide in that it must have been a role ability how they found Oa, and their post about who they suspect does make sense to me-- I entertained the scenario where it's higher activity players who are mafia as well, but currently I'm not very confident in that scenario. However, that's not really indicative of alignment, and there's not really much else.

n-
Annele: I've already expressed the reason but I'm not marking them as w yet because I'm still questioning my reasoning. For now might push them towards n.

iancudorinmarian: It's day 3 already and we're in a bit of a tightrope, why the hell are you trying so hard to be useless? It's not even funny anymore, especially when you are responding with bs.

w
mathman102: If only because they claimed FFQ and I've had FFQ = mafia in my mind since D2. Still waiting to see more and if I am dissuaded from this read. Only thing they've really managed to do is confuse me.

Well it looks like we're on the same page. The one thing I disagree with here is on iancu, despite how frustrating it is, it also is actually still funny. But that's probably just because I'm able to laugh in any situation.

[Linkcat]

It would probably be beneficial to roleclaim so we can see how many abilities could have prevented a N0 check.

[Espithel]

I'm currently writing up my reads. This means trawling through everyone's posts a few more times.
While I do that, anything that I consider interesting or worth pointing out will be posted here.

I don't love the andre lynch, since I don't really think he did anything wrong (it was shock's decision to reveal unnecessary info imo). But, with shock being dead, he's a confirmed civ, so I'd rather go with the person he'd want us to lynch than risk getting steered by mafia to someone else. Had a better idea for a lynch, but that was before GN died, so it is what it is.

andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, MasterNoob, RootRanger
worldwideweb3 (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, iancudorinmarian
mathman101 (2) - worldwideweb3, andretimpa

Simple question here: Who was the better idea and why?

[TheonlyrealBeef]

It would probably be beneficial to roleclaim so we can see how many abilities could have prevented a N0 check.

Does one not usually start these things with stating your own?

Arctic Squid. Unused. People should have spoken up if they were frozen, to backup it being unused. shock came to the same conclusion when he made the claim I did not use my ability N0 (Psion does not reveal that).

[Espithel]

Btw Torb while you're there

I just want to say thank you for all the data collection you're doing each day with lynch logs and tables of suspicion

It's a trivially easy way to look towny but it should be rewarded and appreciated regardless

[Espithel]

So, I think it's time.

Here are my reads:

mathman102 - +1,000,000
Theonlyfakebeef +1
Lunkcat - 0
worldwebweb7 -1
FeetRanger -1
Naii_the_Smelly -2
Annele Prolapse -3
Iancudorinmarialapratakxrajatanaphex -4

I am bad at combining reads. Instead, I'm going to detail all reasons why I think you lot are town or not town, assign those reasons a score, and then add the scores together.

1s are small reads, 2s are suspicious behaviour, and 3s are strong reasons for one or the other. Positive numbers are townie, negative numbers are nonces.


Naii:

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR: Some decent town play who's worringly voted each civ later-on.

(1) During day 1, pushed for Mathman102's inferior dead corpse to post and provide more information.

(-1) During day 1, voted on Mathman102's inferior dead corpse to push it to speak, then tied a vote with shockcannon before mathman spoke, thus rendering his pushing vote useless. This vote on shockcannon was because he was unsure if "Shock was just shitposting or talking in riddles." Shockcannon is a shitposter and a riddletalker, but that doesn't make them scum or town. That's their default playstyle. Lynching for any reason other than lynching nonces is highly dubious.

(1) During day 1, Discussed pointed out legitimate flaws in Root's golden nymph plan, although this was done in a very backhanded way.

(-1) Voted and killed Shockcannon D1.

(-2) Voted, killed, and attempted to hammer Andre D2.

(0) - Has been acceptably active in contributions, and mostly consistent with argumentation.

Total score: -2

Torb:

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR: Solid contributor that is difficult to pin down as scum. Only argument is that he voted strangely D1.

(+1) Posted a lynch log for D1.
Compiling useful public evidence is an easy way for anyone to look towny, including nonces, but it should be rewarded.

(+1) Posted a lynch log for D2.
Compiling useful public evidence is an easy way for anyone to look towny, including nonces, but it should be rewarded.

(-2) Voted and killed Shockcannon D1, and did so later on in the vote. This is despite him having a good reason to lynch www3 and then switched his vote to lynch Shock afterwards? What did this achieve?

(+1) Has been a solid contributor to the game with several discussions and good activity and usefulness.

Total score: +1

An aside: It's only because of Torb that this was able to be posted in such detail at all. Even if you might be scum, I just want to thank you for that. <3

www3:

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR: While useless, has not done anything that would make me believe him to be scum.

(0) Voted on Naii for no reason during day 1, even when he could've voted on Shock, then made an awful reason to justify it when poked.
While I do not appreciate voting for no reason, the fact he didn't vote on Shock makes me want to call this a 0 instead of a -1.

(-1) While active, has not contributed much of substance. Barely explained his votes. Good mafia kill N3 if he's civ. This seems to have changed D3.

(0) - Has not voted for anyone that has died. This could be an arguemnt that he's a mafia hiding in wait, but I read this is typical confused town play.

Total score: -1. This could easily be raised if he was just more helpful tbh

Iancu:

Spoiler for Hidden:

(-1) - Voted and killed Shockcannon.

(-3) - Massively inactive and unhelpful despite repeated prodding to contribute. Votes arbitarily and in a wishy-washy fashion. Could have been removed from this game and it would've played out the exact same. This is what I would expect the mafia to do this game given my experience in elements mafia.

(This isn't a personal attack btw. I think you're really cool and funny. You are kinda throwing the game tho)

Total Score: -4

Mathman102:

Spoiler for Hidden:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTpQw1UvC4M

Linkcat:

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR: The start of elements mafia is his usual self here, although he made a serious blunder D2.

(+1) - Has been a solid, active, consistent, and useful contributor to the game. Linkcat has always adopted an active, commanding personality during games of mafia, even when a nonce, but such behaviour is to be rewarded.

(+1) - Put shortly, I have not disagreed with a single one of his takes he's made this game.

(-2) - Voted, killed, and hammered Andre D2. a bit of an unfair -2 as you would've killed a civ either way, but for the mafia keeping me alive D3 is the correct choice.

(0) - It's a rare treat for Linkcat to survive this long. A lesser player would mark this as him being scummy. I dislike such takes, especially given how long it's been since we've played mafia. Still, it is peculiar.

Total Score: 0

RootRanger

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR: The other star of elements mafia has been playing differently than usual. Am I misremembering, or is something more foul afoot?

(+1) - Authored the golden nymph plan. While I heavily disagree with the plan for reasons Naii pointed, it was a good way to kickstart conversation and get the town talking, which is great.

(-1) - Voted and killed Andre D2. This also steered people away from www3 and the scummy mathman101, arguably being the pivot towards his lynch.

(-1) - Root has been uncharacteristically quiet this game. This is what I would expect from the mafia for this game due to how happy the game is progressing.

(0) - Much like Linkcat, it's peculiar for Root to live this long, although I welcome it. Usually, these two survive only with the consent of the mafia, and very rarely both of them. I'm happy to chalk this up to a neat coincidence or, perhaps, a very content mafia.

(0) - This read can easily shift depending on Root's upcoming post.

Total Score: -1

Annele

Spoiler for Hidden:

TL;DR - I've not had enough interactions with this person to fully determine my opinion of them in this game. Either a skilled played with an unfortunate time schedulue, or scum. Eiher way, the most interesting of the lot.

(-1) - Hasn't voted once this game, is weirdly more active than I'd expect despite that (althouhg nowhere near active enough pre-D3).
I will be lenient given they've said they've had some crazy troubles in sydney, but a more cynical person would suggest that's a cover.

(0) - Made a condolence post after Andre died, which is classic for less skilled mafia. Whether Annele is such is uncertain - We are not acquainted.

(0) - Made a projection post after being accused of nightkilling MW, which is classic for less skilled nonces. Whether Annele is such is uncertain - We are not acquainted.

(-2) - Annele is pushing the easy lynch of mathman101. This is the correct lynch for the town to do D2, and this would be a 0 or a +1 if I never subbed in. The issue is that this play is very good for the town and the mafia, depending on how I flip - I'm a good lynch target for both parties.

As a result, I claimed the scummiest role on purpose to look even scummier in Annele's eyes to see how they'd react.
The rationale is that a nonce should try and push a safe, agreeable, plausibly deniable lynch if they knew it was a civ. Claiming a roll that, in Root's words, should get you lynched immediately, should give most people pause before continuing.

Annele took the bait, the hook, the line, and the sinker.

Annele's argument for lynching me is that I'm more active (I'm one of the most active people in any game of mafia + I'm an entirely different person), which has nothing to do with how I've played thus far. This makes me confident that Annele is pushing a lynch as scum, not as town.

[Espithel]

So, in accordance with my reads posted above:

mathman102 (1) - Annele
worldwideweb3 (1) - iancudorinmarian
iancudorinmarian (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, Linkcat
Annele (1) - Mathman102

There's a chance that Annele is actually civ and this dooms us all, but I'm confident enough in my read. I'm not opposed to a iancu lynch, however.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

lol
Switching from w3 to shock was primarily to prevent a no lynch.

[Naii_the_Baf]

I won't be back until EOD and there's been more than a couple solid reasons to lynch Annele. Even if they're not mafia I still have "Annele might be halfblood" whispering on the back of my mind. I pray this is the right vote, even if it's tying wagons right now.

mathman102 (1) - Annele
worldwideweb3 (1) - iancudorinmarian
iancudorinmarian (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, Linkcat
Annele (2) - Mathman102, Naii_the_Baf

[Linkcat]

Okay, there is definitely some bussing going on here. Of the three people on the bottom of the POE, iancu has given up, and mathel/Annele have placed the other two on the bottom of their readslist. If they were w/w, or even w/v, all they had to do was hammer the iancu lynch and it's a win. So iancu has to be mafia. One of mathel/Annele is a civ that has correctly identified the team, the other is iancu's partner that's abandoning him to die, but still voting the other to see if they can sneak a win. If iancu dies anyway, oh well, they just thunderdome again tomorrow after killing me. If they lose the thunderdome, they still have the deep wolf as a backup, unless the deep wolf is the HB in which case they'll vote with the mafia. If the deep wolf is not the HB then they can bus both and it will be hard to get them on the last day without a Vulture, but we'll deal with that when we get there. In the interest of living at least one more day I am sticking with iancu as the correct lynch here.

[Espithel]

What does thunderdome mean

What does deep wolf mean

And why is iancu scum other than being hilariously inactive

[Espithel]

Like I'm not suggesting Ian isn't scum but at the same time I'm not sure how me slapping Annele follows this conclusion