Elements Mafia 76 - by serprex

[Espithel]

My belief is that vote juggling EOD, especially D1, is nothing but a huge advantage for mafia as they can O R C H E S T R A T E the lynch with ease. That’s why I wanted a train to get «early» traction, in which my percieved probability of hitting mafia is higher.

This is a valid take, and given my experience in elements mafia where the main strategy is to let all the dumb low-skill town kill themselves and manipulate the votes at the end.
I'll do an analysis on that in a bit but given D1 it doesn't seem particularly likely - It's more likely that the nonces're in the earlier sections, not the later one.


Also like people are saying you claimed I was scum but I can't find that in vote or in post so if you could point me to that that'd be grand
Not you, obviously, but you're free to do that in DMs or some shit idk

Also given how Oa apparently claimed I was scum and I died GN, why in all that is Holy did Naii and Link just
Casually ignore that for all of day 2?

Sorry andre, you were posting from a town point of view and I think you could do that as mafia. I wanted to hit math too but he just wasn't as likely to be a good lynch, lynching the lowest poster is usually just a cop-out.

I was hoping other people would engage in deadline shenanigans, but it just came down to me in the end. MW, you were around but didn't vote on any of the wagons, what's up with that?

EBWOP I forgot to change the vote count

andretimpa (4) - Linkcat, MasterNoob, RootRanger, Naii_the_Baf
worldwideweb3 (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, iancudorinmarian
mathman101 (2) - worldwideweb3, andretimpa

Did

Did you two forget that Oa said that I was scum or something?
Why would you do this

I know this isn't helping my case at all but why would you just casually dismiss that as fuckall?
It's a good thing I'm civ or you would be deffo sus rn ngl

[Espithel]

I guess that question also extends to root, but I trust him to have a good reason?
He better not disappoint me

[Espithel]

Also given how Oa apparently claimed I was scum and I you died GN, why in all that is Holy did Naii and Link just
Casually ignore that for all of day 2?

EBWOP
Obviously I'm not dead

T

[Naii_the_Baf]

Naii, what makes you think Annele is HB? And why does that make me mafia? I guarantee I would never be the first vote on my HB in this situation.

The only thing I'm basing off of is her "supposed" claim, but it's a weak argument, although other than that I don't have much else; I really need to give it more thought. Consider I think maf lynching halfblood is a good play here; if I think Annele is halfblood (more accurately, most likely to be) and you're leading the lynch, well, it's not hard to figure out. But again it's not a strong argument and the main reason I don't want to peg you as mafia for that is because of the reasoning you gave for your vote. It'd be very convenient that the halfblood, who FGs can't communicate with, just gave an immediate reason for getting lynched.

[Linkcat]

Oa never claimed you were scum. The reasoning on you being the N0 target is just that Oa putting his vote on you and leaving it there is like the only thing he did this game. I was the first one to point this out, btw. I didn't push it much at the time because I didn't feel comfortable lynching you based solely on that when I had an actual scumread I was following. Even then I almost lynched you at the end. I didn't because lynching the lowest poster has never gotten me a good result before. It was solely up to me at the end and I didn't want to make the wrong play, but clearly that's what I ended up doing.

I guess that question also extends to root, but I trust him to have a good reason?
He better not disappoint me

Prepare to be severely disappointed.

[Linkcat]

Naii, what makes you think Annele is HB? And why does that make me mafia? I guarantee I would never be the first vote on my HB in this situation.

The only thing I'm basing off of is her "supposed" claim, but it's a weak argument, although other than that I don't have much else; I really need to give it more thought. Consider I think maf lynching halfblood is a good play here; if I think Annele is halfblood (more accurately, most likely to be) and you're leading the lynch, well, it's not hard to figure out. But again it's not a strong argument and the main reason I don't want to peg you as mafia for that is because of the reasoning you gave for your vote. It'd be very convenient that the halfblood, who FGs can't communicate with, just gave an immediate reason for getting lynched.

I still don't understand why you think it's a good play. The only time I'd ever lynch the HB here is if it was the counterwagon to my partner.

[iancudorinmarian]

*COUGHCOUGH*IANCU*COUGH*

Fine, you get my exclusive readlist.

n+

TheonlyrealBeef - Promotes discussions. Doesn't bother me. Good guy.

Annele - Gave some good reads. Kinda silent, but that's not really unusual.


n

n-
Naii_the_Baf -  There's no way someone who changes their forum name can be trusted.

worldwideweb3 - Actually less noisy than usual. This is concerning.

Linkcat - How are you still alive?

mathman101 - He just vanished. Pretty sure he vented.

Espithel - Wait, who the hell is this guy?

RootRanger - There's just no way he's town.

[Linkcat]

TheonlyrealBeef - Promotes discussions. Doesn't bother me. Good guy.

He's literally voting you.

[Espithel]

Espithel - Wait, who the hell is this guy?

Who?

I only know Mathman102.

[Linkcat]

Aren't you caught up yet?

[Espithel]

I am but I'm still mulling stuff over
Gimmie a couple of hours
The big issue here is pretty much nothing has happened this game, which is what I suspected yesterday - Which means that I'm pretty skeptical of any particular bandwagon at this time
I agree with Root that I think the nonces are more likely to be active than inactive in this game, although I'll check the activity levels of who was NK'd to confirm it. Killing inactive players gives the town the least amount of information, which means that they're more likely to cannibalise each other.
Root said he had a major scumread, so I'll wait on that before doing a more thorough read of the game. That and I barely know what I'm doing when it comes to reading people lol

All I'll say rn though is that I am the best lynch target if you're the mafia or the town, with lots of good reasons for both parties to off me today. I'm such a safe, obvious, and innocuous lynch - for both the town and the mafia - That I'm very surprised I even got the opportunity to sub in for this game. Given how safe a lynch I am, I'd wager the best mafia play today is to push a lynch on me, get closer to LyLo, and then have lots of plausible deniability during D4. It would also deny the town a lot of information (or would've before I was subbed :^)), because of how inactive Mathman was.

[iancudorinmarian]

TheonlyrealBeef - Promotes discussions. Doesn't bother me. Good guy.

He's literally voting you.

I'm sure it's just a misunderstanding, right TorB?