Elements Mafia 76 - by serprex

[RootRanger]

Will make a more informed vote by end of round - my suspicions atm (however weak they are, with no real information) are actually towards the higher-activity players. The game is clearly going well for mafia, so I figure they'd be more engaged at it.

The FFQ claim is weird imo. That role would mean a higher chance of mafia in my book, given the early GN find. But, claiming FFQ yourself, who knows.

[Linkcat]

In a game like this that's low activity and going well for mafia, they will actually almost always be on the less active side. The more discussion there is, the more chances for a mafia to be found. It's much easier and more effective to just have everyone be in the dark and die unceremoniously. We've lost too many games that way. That's why me and others keep pushing people to talk more. I don't even know how to read you because you've barely posted, so if you're mafia then you're doing a good job.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Spoiler for quote:

n+
w3 - Don't like the people voting on him at all. Hard to believe both people who were counter wagons on D1&2 are on the team.

n
Root - Has been coasting the whole game. Come on, man, help me figure this out.
Naii - Hard to place, I've had weird vibes from him the whole game. Starting to think it's because he's HB, that's just a feeling though.

n-
Torb - Still alive, if a high priority target is on the team I think it's him.
iancu - Literally useless. Bring back Mafia 70 iancu.

w+
Annele - Fits MW kill, Graboid is easy cover for being inactive. No voting record to judge by.

w
mathel - Only lead on Oa's N0 check, claimed FFQ

Now the main problem with this is that I have mathel/Annele as not w/w, so if I choose wrong it's probably game over.

Possible teams assuming iancu/Torb not w/w in addition to previous list

mathel + iancu/Torb + Naii/Root
Annele + iancu/Torb/w3 + Naii/Root
iancu/Torb + Naii + Root
w3 + Naii + Root or iancu/Torb as HB

Reading your analyses, you put Naii and/or Root in every probable team, while mathel and Annele are only in one of four each.  You put both Root and Naii at n, while the potential teams don't leave as much room for mathel and Annele both being w. Any comment on the reasoning behind this?

[Annele]

I am also interested in the answer to torb's question.

Spoiler for readlist:

n+
Naii_the_Baf
His posts seem generally useful and towny. I liked the move from ww3 once he had a decent response last round, and think his choice of andre seemed much better justified than root's.

n+
worldwideweb3
I always feel mildly bad for the ones who tend to get jumped on early. Looking back, I think he pointed out the Oa vote on math even before I did. Also the two votes on him seems to have no justification and are both people I do not trust.

n
Linkcat
I think I have an internal bias towards the way link types because I always read his posts as vaguely scummy but have been very very wrong in the past about that.
I am a little confused by the most recent readlist (see torb's question), though I generally do agree with the conclusions. Overall I think there are far scummier players and agree that the more active one is the less likely to be mafia anyways

n
TheonlyrealBeef
Opposite internal bias here, I always read his posts as very trustworthy. I can't remember if I've been in a mafia game with scumtorb but if I was I'm sure we lost. I like torb's solving stuff, especially the attempt at figuring out hb. I do find it hard to get a proper read on him though.

n-
RootRanger - made some good points about the GN strategy early game, the reasoning for voting andre to break the three-way tie seems a little sketchy. Pinning the reasoning on blindly following shock and hedging the vote by saying he doesn't love it seems almost like a mafia not wanting to appear too aggressive once it's clear that andre was town.

n-
iancudorinmarian
Posted nothing of substance so far. I actually forgot he was in this game. Has only tried to lynch the two fallback players, shock and ww3

w
Espithel - being more active and claiming ffq has only strengthened my suspicions about mathman in the first place

Currently my thinking is that those bottom three - root, ian, and espi - are the w/w/hb trio, leaning towards ian as the hb (though if he is I don't think he's been very useful to the mafia).
I don't know what to think about some of the most active and solvey players still being around, as others have brought up a few times. I haven't played enough mafia on here to know what the trends are so atm I'm just not including it in my thinking.

[Linkcat]

1. Just because they're in a lot of potential teams doesn't mean I can individually read them scummier. Trying to lynch either of them would just be a crapshoot.
2.  The reason they show up so much is because I haven't marked them as not w/w. I was probably too hasty to mark you and iancu as not w/w, so that would open up more possibilities that didn't include either of them. Even assuming you're not w/w, you could still be HB which I should have noted in that list.
3. The latter two lines that include both are much less likely than the first two, I put them there for completeness.
4. I already said mathel/Annele weren't w/w based on Annele opening up the day on them, though I am reconsidering this.

(Written before Annele's post, haven't read it so I don't know if it changes anything)

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Assuming the teams conclusion was a summary of previous statements, it was partially to ask if the conclusion made you reconsider the hypotheses the conclusion was built on.
And your lynch vote accordingly.

Regarding 1. and 4.: just wondering since w seems a strong sentiment for <50% mafia, while Root/Naii are >50% mafia in your illustrated scenarios. Of course, the relative chances change when you weigh particular scenarios as far more likely than others.

[Linkcat]

I am also interested in the answer to torb's question.

Spoiler for readlist:

n+
Naii_the_Baf
His posts seem generally useful and towny. I liked the move from ww3 once he had a decent response last round, and think his choice of andre seemed much better justified than root's.

n+
worldwideweb3
I always feel mildly bad for the ones who tend to get jumped on early. Looking back, I think he pointed out the Oa vote on math even before I did. Also the two votes on him seems to have no justification and are both people I do not trust.

n
Linkcat
I think I have an internal bias towards the way link types because I always read his posts as vaguely scummy but have been very very wrong in the past about that. Don't worry, that's intentional.
I am a little confused by the most recent readlist (see torb's question), though I generally do agree with the conclusions. Overall I think there are far scummier players and agree that the more active one is the less likely to be mafia anyways

n
TheonlyrealBeef
Opposite internal bias here, I always read his posts as very trustworthy. I can't remember if I've been in a mafia game with scumtorb but if I was I'm sure we lost. I like torb's solving stuff, especially the attempt at figuring out hb. I do find it hard to get a proper read on him though.

n-
RootRanger - made some good points about the GN strategy early game, the reasoning for voting andre to break the three-way tie seems a little sketchy. Pinning the reasoning on blindly following shock and hedging the vote by saying he doesn't love it seems almost like a mafia not wanting to appear too aggressive once it's clear that andre was town.

n-
iancudorinmarian
Posted nothing of substance so far. I actually forgot he was in this game. Has only tried to lynch the two fallback players, shock and ww3

w
Espithel - being more active and claiming ffq has only strengthened my suspicions about mathman in the first place

Currently my thinking is that those bottom three - root, ian, and espi - are the w/w/hb trio, leaning towards ian as the hb (though if he is I don't think he's been very useful to the mafia).
I don't know what to think about some of the most active and solvey players still being around, as others have brought up a few times. I haven't played enough mafia on here to know what the trends are so atm I'm just not including it in my thinking.

This is the best reads list all game. Solid reasoning for every read. Proposed team is within my likely possibilites. Iancu as HB makes sense with the way he's been playing. Solid stuff, this is what I wanted to see from people today. *cough*Root*cough*

[Linkcat]

*COUGHCOUGH*IANCU*COUGH*

[Espithel]

The meta is that you always lynch, but fight about it every game anyway.

Linkcat's just salty of that time I

[Espithel]

forced a no-lynch while he was trying to kill everyone as scum and got rewarded for it

lol

Don't know why that posted I didn't even press the enter key

[Linkcat]

Assuming the teams conclusion was a summary of previous statements, it was partially to ask if the conclusion made you reconsider the hypotheses the conclusion was built on.
And your lynch vote accordingly.

Regarding 1. and 4.: just wondering since w seems a strong sentiment for <50% mafia, while Root/Naii are >50% mafia in your illustrated scenarios. Of course, the relative chances change when you weigh particular scenarios as far more likely than others.

Worldbuilding with no red flips is unreliable, there's just too many possibilites. It would be silly to vote just based on that without an individual scumread.

[Linkcat]

forced a no-lynch while he was trying to kill everyone as scum and got rewarded for it

lol

Don't know why that posted I didn't even press the enter key

You're trying to inflate your post count, I see right through you.

Remind me what game that was so I can delete the relevant posts.