Since we already analysed who took which stance regarding killing the GN, I decided to reread N0, focusing on serp's posts and other posts that give context to his interactions. The following wall are the ones I found more interesting and my thoughts on them
Do we want otys/toadfish to claim? Especially in case of oty its likely for actually correct play to cause an uproar as its going to be revealed the same night.
Regardless i think it a good idea to hold a vote in the night, where otys/toadfish target the "lynchvote". This doubles our wagonomics as well. It also makes townotys actually using their ability (as they should) less devisive and leashes scumotys to potentially target one of their own.
This post was made before any talk about eating the GN came up and makes me inclined to believe kae really was an Oty.
shock & I are deja vus
Mostly a meme
So if GN does claim, will mafia actually kill them? The sooner GN dies the sooner we can have multiple GNs. I say GN claims and a kill role kills them off since its unlikely maf will use NK on them.
shock & I are deja vus
You AND shock rolled deja N0? seems unlikely.
Oh, I didn't think deja was actually a role in this game. I was just shit posting. Or maybe I was soft hinting why I might be protecting shock from a policy lynch tomorrow
Serp playing dumb a bit and again going after shock
I'd prefer not to be eaten so that town can know whether or not to lynch shock asap
Third post, softs GN.Still talking about shock
I'd prefer not to be eaten so that town can know whether or not to lynch shock asap
shock & I are deja vus
So, nice soft and hard, but if you really are GN here, it has been discussed and agreed that you are an optimal vighit n0. It's too risky not to have the role available for vultures and to gain permanent GNs, especially because of the possibility of not rolling one again for a while.
Coffee could be preparing to bus here? Seems a bit early for this tho, so I think this is more likely to be genuine.
Anyway:
Unofficial nightly lynchvote in case of oty:
shockcannon(1) kaempfer13
I have nothing to go off and killing shock seems like the most protown completely random move.
kae proposes a policy vig on shock. The idea here is clearly to try to get traction and justify eating shock. There were some talks about random vigging at this point, so this becoming a thing seemed plausible at the time. To me it indicates kae and shock are not w/w
So, I think the discussion hasn't actually been that clear on "optimal" but maybe that's because I'd want some probabilities calculated rather than people trusting the guy who's just trolling everyone by spamming the thread with claims for all the roles
serp starts spouting some math to convince us to not vig GN.
shockcannon (1) - kaempfer13
No vig (1) - TheonlyrealBeef
kaempfer13 (1) - serprex
kaempf's trying to instigate town to vig my check, stay classy
Serp seems to be doubling down on the "defending shock thing". At the point this was made it seemed less plausible that a kaemp vig decision would take off, so I'm not reading a lot into this
Hes been the only one to claim GN, troll or not.
serprex says hi.
torb there is no reliable gn claim rn, so you really cant count on that plan. on average the night action only game results in a townloss so we really need to use all the power we can get.
@cal Not enough people can be arsed to vote so this vote isnt representative so ill no lynch is one of the worst reasons to no lynch yet
kae seems to be waiting for a hard claim here. Maybe he doesn't want having to eat his scumbuddy? (in which case he'd just holster)
serprex has joined the trolltrinity of link and shock. You should notice that those people cant be trusted no matter what. i jump at slips from people were that isnt normal.
but anyway if you want serp as gnclaim to be eaten vote and argue accordingly. If you are trying to make the same push on me as at the end last game you waste your breath
These seem a bit exagerated. That last line (I put in bold) also seems uncalled for.
As to why I know serprexs claims cannot be trusted, he was a major contribution to my confusion about shocks role in the game where you died immediately.
kae trying to discredit serp's softclaim doesn't look that good after the flip
So MW's saying silly things, business as usual, but the "vig GN for a fast win" is not how this works. If y'all going to vig me you better understand exactly how we're playing this out
Someone who isn't going to be dead if this plan goes through should post the numbers of how long things should drag out for an EV positive result. "4 vultures" is not realistic. I would hope that people who are on a card game forum would understand something about RNG but apparently this is a mafia forum now where we go off how we're reading people & bucket me into a trolltrinity when I'm posting numerical analysis
serp comes short of hardclaiming and tries to convince us not to vig him.
I'm pro not holstering N0 vig, I just think kaempfer13 should be the target in that case
This could very well be serp trying to distance himself from kae
Poll
