Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp

[kaempfer13]

The trolling part are your roleclaims, im fine with your numbers.
However killing of the gn is an about evenish trade, so I'm not sure why we started screaming for their head anyway.

[kaempfer13]

In fact it might be best not to claim, hoping to bait the nightkill, so we dont have towaste a vigshot.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

For starters, there is no GN that claimed that found themselves getting killed to be a good idea. I stated earlier that I would prefer to only kill the GN if they agreed it was a good idea. Because honestly?

So MW's saying silly things, business as usual, but the "vig GN for a fast win" is not how this works. If y'all going to vig me you better understand exactly how we're playing this out

Someone who isn't going to be dead if this plan goes through should post the numbers of how long things should drag out for an EV positive result. "4 vultures" is not realistic. I would hope that people who are on a card game forum would understand something about RNG but apparently this is a mafia forum now where we go off how we're reading people & bucket me into a trolltrinity when I'm posting numerical analysis

I have no clue.
Fact: having a dead GN N0 is good for town because all future vultures permanently gain the GN ability.
Is this worth killing a town GN for and missing out on their result? No idea. I think it's fair to state that having them get nightkilled this night is the most town positive nightkill we can get due to vulture thing. But does this really warrant actively vigging them, and what is this based on? Gut feeling? An idea?

[shockcannon]

I'm targeting kaempfer13 tonight.

[worldwideweb3]

FWIW, I don’t think it’s worth killing off GN

[andretimpa]

My opinions on the current topics:

Random vigging in N0 sounds like a bad idea. I'm in favor of vigging GN if they are okay with that. Regardless, I think any town!GN should step up.

[Linkcat]

Crusader, Dragonfly, and FFQ should target serp even if we don't eat him, Toadfishes and anyone else that rolled Warden should never target him.

The value of a check is more than just pure numbers. The right check at the right time can alter the course of the entire game.

[Coffeeditto]

The merits here are that we can get max 1 report off of a randomly rolled GN. By ensuring that a GN dies tonight, we can maximize the possibility of future reports instead of getting one report which could possibly be on dead anyway. I can run the numbers soon.

[Coffeeditto]

Also, GN will just get roleblocked if not killed, making it just another wasted day without possibly benefiting from maximizing vulture efficiency. Even if there is a dragonfly in play right now, we can’t play with the idea that they’re working in the town’s benefit.

[MasterWalks]

So MW's saying silly things, business as usual, but the "vig GN for a fast win" is not how this works. If y'all going to vig me you better understand exactly how we're playing this out

Someone who isn't going to be dead if this plan goes through should post the numbers of how long things should drag out for an EV positive result. "4 vultures" is not realistic. I would hope that people who are on a card game forum would understand something about RNG but apparently this is a mafia forum now where we go off how we're reading people & bucket me into a trolltrinity when I'm posting numerical analysis

Ok yea, 4 vultures was me exagerating. But Mr. Mathmetician, how likely is it that in say 6 rounds we get at least 2 vultures? Heck even 3. 2 GNs is better than 1 GN. The sooner we can have more than 1 GN the better off we are as town. Otherwise, we are just sitting at the chance of someone rolling a GN each round and only getting 1 peek per round. I havent read the rules, but i believe GN is the only role thats locked down to a certain amount rolled? Maybe Deja is too.

For starters, there is no GN that claimed that found themselves getting killed to be a good idea. I stated earlier that I would prefer to only kill the GN if they agreed it was a good idea. Because honestly?

So MW's saying silly things, business as usual, but the "vig GN for a fast win" is not how this works. If y'all going to vig me you better understand exactly how we're playing this out

Someone who isn't going to be dead if this plan goes through should post the numbers of how long things should drag out for an EV positive result. "4 vultures" is not realistic. I would hope that people who are on a card game forum would understand something about RNG but apparently this is a mafia forum now where we go off how we're reading people & bucket me into a trolltrinity when I'm posting numerical analysis

I have no clue.
Fact: having a dead GN N0 is good for town because all future vultures permanently gain the GN ability.
Is this worth killing a town GN for and missing out on their result? No idea. I think it's fair to state that having them get nightkilled this night is the most town positive nightkill we can get due to vulture thing. But does this really warrant actively vigging them, and what is this based on? Gut feeling? An idea?

Yes it is. The chance they hit a maf while everyone is still alive is lower than when people are ded. The sooner we vig GN, the higher chance they targeted a town with their ability.

[kaempfer13]

well thing is gn is probably also town (at least if they step up) and vig could have hit a scum instead. It about evens out.

[andretimpa]

I havent read the rules, but i believe GN is the only role thats locked down to a certain amount rolled? Maybe Deja is too.

I think the only restriction is that you won't roll the same role more than once, doesn't matter what role it is.