Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp

[kaempfer13]

geez Linkcat gets scummier every game regardless of alignement. oh well, i suppose he's just trolling. Anyway these needless (although most probably not serious) claims made me think whether a nightly (or night1) massclaim would actually be beneficial, as we dont really have to protect gn until one does die or a crusader gn comes up (although at that time it would kinda be too late to protect them through not claiming).

inb4 "I claim fate egg"

[serprex]

I'd prefer not to be eaten so that town can know whether or not to lynch shock asap

shock & I are deja vus

So, nice soft and hard, but if you really are GN here, it has been discussed and agreed that you are an optimal vighit n0. It's too risky not to have the role available for vultures and to gain permanent GNs, especially because of the possibility of not rolling one again for a while.

So, I think the discussion hasn't actually been that clear on "optimal" but maybe that's because I'd want some probabilities calculated rather than people trusting the guy who's just trolling everyone by spamming the thread with claims for all the roles

I count 22 roles to roll. There'll be at most 15 people d1, 14 if I were oty target. It'll take 4 days to get 2 checks out of a vulture. Let's say day 2 someone rolls vulture. Day 3 they're GN. Day 4 they know one check. Day 5 they know one check. Day 6 they know two checks

A bit less than 10% of roles are vig. So we can expect a ~3 people to die per day. d1:15, d2:12, d3:9, d4:6, d5:3

But Toadfish shouldn't target me. It's as likely someone rolled oty as it is someone rolled sader

Next exercise, summing up those body counts, d1:15, d2:27, d3:36, d4:42, d5:45

So we expect ~2 vultures this game. But only 1 before d3

This math changes if people decide that vigs should holster. But then you have to do an EV comparison of having good vulture target as opposed to having vigs

PS your face is a dumbtell

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Anyway:

Unofficial nightly lynchvote in case of oty:

shockcannon (1) - kaempfer13

I have nothing to go off and killing shock seems like the most protown completely random move.

Not sure how much you believe the latter statement to be true, still trying to gauge if you're actually mafia trying to justify town vigs through these votes. Regardless, I think the most likely outcome of a shock vig is a dead town and no info.

Spoiler for truth:

I'd mostly just feel bad about killing shock N0 after getting lynched D1 last mafia. It even looks like Linkcat had to edit him into the signup list.

shockcannon (1) - kaempfer13
No vig (1) - TheonlyrealBeef

[serprex]

shockcannon (1) - kaempfer13
No vig (1) - TheonlyrealBeef
kaempfer13 (1) - serprex

kaempf's trying to instigate town to vig my check, stay classy

[kaempfer13]

well gn obv shouldnt target what everyone agrees to be the vigtarget.

[iancudorinmarian]

Mafia team: kdz, TorB, shock

[andretimpa]

Mafia team: kdz, TorB, shock

S O L V E D G A M E

[killsdazombies]

I think the dice are biased, Ive been rolled every game :c

[worldwideweb3]

[worldwideweb3]

can crusader target dead people? if not, then we shouldnt really go around killing GN, crusaders are basically same as vulture but on alive.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

can crusader target dead people? if not, then we shouldnt really go around killing GN, crusaders are basically same as vulture but on alive.

They won't be dead yet by the time Crusaders target them, and they won't be GN anymore after that night, regardless of whether they live or die.

[kaempfer13]

TorB, you need to realize that voting no vig is not just similiar but identical to voting no lynch. My suggestion was to leash any vigs to target a consensus target, even if its their mafiabuddy. it is identical to a lynchvote except potential multiple vigs crossstreaming, a mafiabuddy casting angel on the target and the person themselves rolling vig (valid arguments against it, none of which are adressed with no vig however)