Ok so I just realized Coffee is actually in real danger of getting modkilled (no posts N3, D4, N4). Lemme run some numbers real quick here
Key: Start of phase | no modkill (v/w) | modkill (v/w)D4 | 5/2 | 5/2
if town gets lynched today
N4 | 4/2 | 4/2
D5 |
3/2 |
2/2N5 | 3/1 or game over
D6 |
2/1if scum gets lynched today
N4 | 5/1 | 5/1
D5 | 4/1 | 3/1
N5 | 3/1 | 3/1 (If we lynch town D5, ofc. If we lynch scum then it's gg at this point. No lynch at 3/1 is pretty much a given)
D6 |
2/1 |
2/1These numbers tell me that - mathematically - Coffee might actually be the correct lynch (inb4 I'm bad at maths meme). If we lynch a town that is not Coffee, and Coffee stays inactive (which is not a first tbh), it's game over. If we lynch scum, however, a Coffee modkill is pretty much irrelevant as we'd want to no lynch at 3/1 unless someone gets a red GN peek. Then there's always the chance that Coffee is inactive scum, which is the edge case that in my view makes this strat viable. If we lynch Coffee now we're at least guaranteed not to lose due to a modkill, but then again, he can always show up and render all of this speculation useless
I realize I'm just rambling around now, but this might actually be something to consider
Thoughts, kae and kdz?
Poll
