Author

Calindu · « **Reply #708 on:** September 07, 2020, 09:44:18 am »

Quote from: kaempfer13 on September 06, 2020, 12:35:13 pm

@cal thoughts on anubis? nae and coffee are both confirmed to not have done it, so either you believe a towny did it and remained silent about it or you have to readjust your reads.

I agree that it's unlikely town!Oa did it, but I wouldn't put it past town!shock to do it. That said, I didn't say that I consider those in the middle region to be very towny, I only consider kdz as almost confirmed town. That said, I think one of the mafia is Nae/Coffee, but not both of them.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #709 on:** September 07, 2020, 10:43:34 am »

Let's see if an update to lynchlog gives me insight:

Spoiler for lynchlog:

Spoiler for bonus n0:

Spoiler for Day1:

Spoiler for day2:

Spoiler for Day3:

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #710 on:** September 07, 2020, 10:48:01 am »

Oh boy confirmed pure wagon on calindu does look bad especially as a potential partner to Oa (since he set up joining both coffee and naii wagon), but as anyones partner really.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #711 on:** September 07, 2020, 10:56:50 am »

Oa+ Cal would also help explain MWs death considering his last reads, though I wouldn't want to read too much into that, but it felt odd how he was brushed off as just too townread, while he really wasnt.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #712 on:** September 07, 2020, 11:03:44 am »

looks like I've gone full circle.
Anyway, I already townread kdz before examining timpa crumbs, so i have no doubts there and i really dont feel like it's Naesala, so I fully expect scum to be exactly 1 out of Calindu or Coffee + 1 out of shock and Oa. Finally I'll put work into a big post examining the 4 possible combinations, which will obv take a long time (lunchbreak included).

killsdazombies · « **Reply #713 on:** September 07, 2020, 02:07:53 pm »

TBF, I put my vote on cali primarily to pressure them into speaking. Cali is def in my top 3 sus bois, but that vote was not an actual attempt to kill.

killsdazombies · « **Reply #714 on:** September 07, 2020, 02:16:13 pm »

Think I'm gonna try to have my final vote placed within 4-5 hours for our Eu Bois

I thinkkkkk my order is Shock -> Oa ---> cali---> Rest, but I don't necessarily think the top 3 contain both mafia.

Naesala · « **Reply #715 on:** September 07, 2020, 02:52:05 pm »

Waiting on shock and kaemp's massive posts, but that said, I'm placing a tentative vote on Calindu.

Calindu (1) - Naesala

killsdazombies · « **Reply #716 on:** September 07, 2020, 06:53:18 pm »

I'd like to see that master post from shock, but baring that I think I'll place my vote on them. Gonna post in an hourish, just want to think a little more

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #717 on:** September 07, 2020, 07:06:30 pm »

Obv seen from my perspective knowing that I'm town:
I suppose I have no mechanical reason to townread naesala, but she just doesnt give off the vibe that she's getting any help or trying to keep someone alive in particular.
I also hold on to my assumption of mafia!anubis (technically Link could in fact have done it, but that really wouldnt have been a smart move and I think higher than that of him)

Starting of with the scenario where shock is the Anubis:

Spoiler for shock scenario:

Spoiler for bonus n0:

Spoiler for Day1:

Spoiler for day2:

Spoiler for Day3:

Wagonomics assuming shock is scum:
N0 votes would imply a calindu partner, given that both shock and serp were in eversoslight danger and a partner was already on me. Day 1 and 2 wagonomics seem pretty much unusable as none of the suspects other than calindu maybe were in remote danger. day 3 looks sorta bad for Calindu regardless of partners, though shock didnt really seem to try and save him.
As to Coffee i cant really find much in terms of wagonomics since he's not voting. In other communities not voting is sus per default, but here its unfortunately almost normal especially for Coffee. His constant reassurance that he would eventually do sth, yet doesnt, certainly is suspect though. This applies regardless of partner though, at most i could infer that its not calindu since he never tried to help him out but my Anubis assumption already covers that.

Now let's analyze posts:
serp: okI will not bother quoting here, it's all about how he insisted shock would be his gn target, even if he's agreed upon as the best lynch. as i said before this can sorta go either way, although i do think it points more towards scum than town that was already expected to be unhelpfull.

Spoiler for the man himself:

I find the volume of his posts unusually low for him. Half ot it is mostly useless roleclaiming, although i do find 2 of them noteable.
For convenience I'll quote the parts of his reveal instead of the unusable initial posts:

Quote from: shockcannon on September 01, 2020, 10:07:16 pm

To gain trust, I'll start by sharing all night actions and info gathered thus far (which is technically nothing, but nothing can sometimes be even more valuable).

N0 - Ghost of the Past
This role was breadcrumbed in my very first post.
Quote from: shockcannon on August 22, 2020, 09:12:55 pm
I'm targeting kaempfer13 tonight.

If you had clicked on quote on this post, you would have noticed that at the end of the sentence there are two random colors with no text. Yellow and dimgray, the respective colors for time and darkness. The only role that has ties with time and darkness would be ghost of the past due to its usage in ghostmare. I did in fact target kaempfer. Partially for the memes, partially because I had already started to suspect some odd play out of him. First, we have the fact that he pushed quite hard for a no vig scenario. Second, it felt like he was being a little more aggressive than normal and looking to establish control a lot earlier, with more assertive statements rather than questioning from the past. Now, this means absolutely nothing because N0 reads are absolutely worthless in my opinion and I will always believe that. But it was more than enough to justify using ghost of the past on him, especially because I knew there was a high chance he would try to policy lynch me and I wanted to spite him. Terrible town play? Maybe. But at least if I go down, he's useless for the rest of the game so maybe he'll think twice before randomly lynching me.

I dont doubt this tbh. Terrible play yet at the same time it mechanically discourages me from lynching him. Not enough to stop me though so long as I am decently confident he's scum

N1 - Psion
I breadcrumbed this here:
Quote from: shockcannon on August 24, 2020, 06:48:53 pm
Lastly, at least one other person should already know my role. So maybe try asking around.
Obviously, I had no way of knowing if someone knew my role. But what's the only role that does let people know other roles? Well it's psion. Psion has 5 letters, "so maybe try asking around" has 5 words. No other role in the game has 5 letters.
I did indeed use this role on andretimpa. There was some discussion about how Calindu (if i recall) messed up by giving away that andre targeted serprex and was potentially a crusader turned golden nymph. I figured it was possible andre gave out a fake role to hide this potential scenario and I wanted to check for GN in case I rolled crusader soon after and could grab a GN with 100% certainty. It potentially increases my odds of GN by 50% because now I can roll vulture, GN, OR crusader.

However, I will acknowledge that this is a potential mafia move because knowing if andre is GN or not would let mafia know if they need to kill him immediately or not. But then why would my theoretical teammate waste an anubis on andre as well? I'm going to use Anubis to get a guaranteed kill on someone if I already plan on killing them, not a conditional kill that only happens if a player happened to have had a role. Also, lowkey, I'm pretty sure using Anubis on a town to guarantee a kill that's pretty much always going to go through anyways, and on someone who isn't even close to a confirmed town is just such a bad play for mafia. I won't waste my time ranting, but the latter part of this post is going to talk about who the mafia Anubis is, because that's a real lead and we should witch hunt this, because it's all we really have besides "our feelings," which we know are not always 100% accurate, and are sometimes -500% accurate.
Half of this breadcrumb is a flat out lie, so I'm not sure how he expected people to guess that. If it is an actual breadcrumb its at least as likely to actually indicate a buff used on someone else, as it comes with a notification specifying what role targeted you. Low and behold:Anubis.
N2 - Iridium Warden
This was breadcrumbed here:
Quote from: shockcannon on August 29, 2020, 04:23:00 pm
I'm targeting coffee tonight.
Within the earth lies the secrets of the elements.
If you click quote on the post, you will notice that a sentence is written in transparent color. The message reads, "Within the earth lies the secrets of the elements."
The only roles that are earth creatures are graboid, shreiker, and iridium warden. Iridium is an element on the periodic table, hence the word "elements at the end of the sentence. "Lies the secrets" indicates that I lied about my visible statement, meaning that I did not target coffee. I, in fact, targeted no one as I wasn't planning to block anyone, but I did want to see if anyone would react to this post, either by commenting or through night actions. It appears that Coffee forgot to use his ability. I was hoping others would share their roles first because I was curious if anyone visited either me or coffee last night, expecting me and coffee to visit each other. Luckily, this lack of info is irrelevant to my revelations so I don't mind posting now. It's also quite likely, that this bait did not result in anything noteworthy.

This would support a shock+coffee world as it would shield coffee from people getting info on him. This is assuming he actually did use it on Coffee. It's possible he did use it like so and found noone targeted coffee anyway and decided that unless someone dragonflied him it would be less scummy if he claimed he didnt even attempt to roleblock people. A lot of assumptions in order to get anything out of this though. Its also odd how coffee claimed the same role and usage.

Quote from: shockcannon on August 27, 2020, 07:12:42 pm

There's a lot of people who aren't talking and that's allowing things like Anubis to go off safely and hidden. I will acknowledge that it's technically possible I was Anubis and gave andre immortality, but I'm hoping someone can confirm me with their info. I was psion this past night, and looking to confirm a couple theories I had.

Also @Oa:

I actually think we definitely should go on a witch hunt. It's very possible if everyone shares their info we can catch someone in a lie or maybe even flat out find the mafia Anubis. Right now there are 4 possible candidates:

1.) myself. I could be faking my role and saying my ability failed when in reality I'm just the Anubis
2.) andre. He could be lying about his visit and gave himself immortality
3.) kaempf. He said he targeted andre.
4.) someone else.

Options 2 and 3 seem unlikely and very risky on the respective players parts' UNLESS there's some mafia on mafia interactions going on.
Option 1 I obviously know to be 100% false but I suppose I currently have no alibi from anyone else.
Option 4 seems likely, and we need to get people to start talking.

Also @kaempf:

Now that we've made it past two nights I'll have you know my role from night 1 is hidden in one of my first couple posts. I don't remember which one and I don't feel like checking. Probably won't convince you of anything, but it's there for anyone else. Probably irrelevant anyways because it's still quite likely that kaempf's ability just failed because of the double devour situation.

Spoiler for dontread:
I think I've caught a major slip up by a certain a player. I need the next night to confirm something though. If I find what I'm looking for I should have this game solved the following day.

@mafia
You better get me lynched today or kill me the next night otherwise the will burn brightly and its fuel will be you.

This sorta implies oa shock not w/w.

Quote from: shockcannon on September 04, 2020, 11:42:56 pm

Alright I’m pretty sure there’s exactly 1 mafia between Naesala, Coffeeditto, and killzdazombies. The other 1 is among the rest.
In case I die I’ll post my read list and I would suggest voting out kaempf first because he’s a noob and the mere sight of him will make the rest of you noobs as well.

V:
shockcannon - if I’m mafia, you all have already lost. Also I would never kill off TheonlyrealNoob. I’d leave him, kaempf, and MW until the very end when it’s 4 of us going into the night phase. This is when they realize I’m actually the mafia. And then I high roll otyugh like the skilled mafia player I am and slice and dice torb and MW, leaving kaempf alone in the village with only me to talk to. After which he will inevitably decide to lynch himself, and that’s how I win. Also while I’m ranting let me talk about how cowardly this mafia Anubis is. I know one of you is lying and trying to hide and you’re lucky you’ve gotten away so far. But don’t think for one minute you’re safe. I’m coming for you to teach you how a real mafia Anubis does things. And that’s claim Anubis and say out loud that you targeted Andre. You think I’m 2x master of fire because I hide my decks and strays from my opponent. No I shove it in their face and crush them anyways like the noob they are. Imagine worrying about torb so much that you kill him off N1 and then have to use Anubis to secure kills. Lame. Lame. Lame. This game is about to end because I finally have a useful role. And if you’re worried then go ahead and kill me tonight. I know you won’t because you’re too scared about my cryptic message. Maybe I rolled seraph. Maybe I rolled angel. Well I’ll tell you exactly what I rolled. I rolled unlimited power and I’m going to shove it up your Anubis until you you’re immaterial from the pain because all your nerves are gone. In fact, you never even had nerves to begin with. So goodluck. Go ahead. Kill me, this is your last chance before I rally the other town noobs in this game and lead them to victory.

N:

Calindu - almost put him in W but I realized I have nothing. Honestly, not worth wasting oxygen discussing Calindu. I’d recommend letting this creature stick around while ignoring any sounds that come out. If we reach Lynch or Lose, this is our target.

W:
kaempfer13 - super sus. Unusual play. Tunneling on lynching me early. Questionable momentum usage on Andre. If mafia and left alone, then very dangerous due to his control over conversation

andretimpa - last time I thought he was town because he almost died by lynch day 1. This time I’m not falling for that trap. Easily had his mafia buddy give him immaterial. Questionable for other reasons I won’t share yet.

Naesala - classic noob pretending to be pro acting as noob but still actually noob because I can see right through the disguise. Flies under the radar and gets away with very questionable night action usage. Like highly questionable.

PlayerOa - claims Anubis. Posts too many read lists, when read lists are essentially useless in a fate egg game.

Coffeeditto - You’re really good at always seeming suspicious. Sometimes you talk a lot and sometimes you don’t. You gotta pick a style and go with it. Like kaempf picks the noob route, Nae picks the naive route, Torb picks the detective route, and MW picks the living meme route. You gotta choose. Lack of choice is simply the choice of the I’m always suspicious route.

Kdz - “I used divine shield.”

First half is just wifom+I'm still alive anyway. Killing mw actually looks 100% like a shock kill, although I suppose its believable he would consider torb+link nk "too easy".
Putting the entire town in w unless he or Calindu are town, whilst giving a noncommital read on cal. I suppose this implies being teamed with cal.

I'm not sure what made me think his n1 claim was honest other than how swiftly he started the hunt on the role I suspect he had now. There really isnt much there and trying to frame other people fits shocks playstyle much better than Oa's tbh.
Also he hasnt yet followed through with his promised big post but pot meet kettle I suppose.

Spoiler for Calindu::

Spoiler for Coffee:

I wanted to be fair and do both in one post, but this is taking too damn long.

Speaking of which: extension(1)kaempfer13

For now i convinced myself that it is shock again, but I'll work on that Oa post before a final verdict.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #718 on:** September 07, 2020, 08:11:15 pm »

Same assumptions as above, except I'll assume Oa scum:

Spoiler for oa scenario:

Spoiler for bonus n0:

Spoiler for Day1:

Spoiler for day2:

Spoiler for Day3:

Wagonomics discussion: Not much reason for scum to care for the n0 vig other than serp which already got rolling and stopping it would cast too much suspicion on them. Again d1 and 2 pretty useless. Honestly, if Calindu is scum I look much more suspicious than Oa, as he just parked on Naii, only his response to calindu requesting the switch to coffee was odd.

Postinvestigation:

Spoiler for Oa:

Quote from: PlayerOa on August 24, 2020, 08:39:59 pm

Quote from: kaempfer13 on August 24, 2020, 08:30:32 pm
coffee and i have a hate boner for eachother and I do see similiarities to his last game, I'm not sure how much of this is emotionally tainted though. Also I dont think there is a chance that would gain traction with how loudly he screamed for serps death.

shock ticks off all the boxes for me at the moment uncooperative✓ could have roleblocked me✓ didnt take a stance on gn matter✓ not trying to help town✓ serp thought it a good idea to claim a result on him ✓

Next I was going to look were the other people that didnt address the issue, but thats you who suggested doing so in the first place and calindu who was forthcoming with his roleclaim, so i kinda townread that too.
I'm townreading Coffee at the moment, I'm not putting my vote on him as of now. shock is a different story, and while I know you two have... history, I have no real reason to scumread him yet. I'd rather kill him than Coffee though, but in a scenario where those two are the only other options I'm definitely sticking to MW.

..and as I'm hitting post, you're up there with another one huh

Quote from: kaempfer13 on August 24, 2020, 08:34:26 pm
not feeling mw, w3 or Nae as previously stated. So next place to look would be the people who pretty much checked out after they supported the gnkill, way after it became a major topic. this would be ian, naii (technically nae, but she gives the lhf vibe) and moe iirc.
Nae and MW on the other hand are lynches I can get behind, but yeah I agree it's tough to draw any real juice out of them, especially Nae, for now. On w3 I agree, not feeling anything either direction. I just don't like how his wagon gained this much speed without any real content backing it. ian and Naii are ok targets, I guess. moe I see hasn't logged in in >48 hours, not sure what to make of that.

Quote from: PlayerOa on September 01, 2020, 05:54:52 pm

Quote from: andretimpa on September 01, 2020, 04:37:40 pm
Naii_the_Baf (2) - PlayerOa, Naesala
Calindu (2) - Naii_the_Baf, killsdazombies
Coffeeditto (2) - kaempfer13, andretimpa

Just want to avoid any train running loose before Coffee shows up.
FYI we EU people can't stall all the way until deadline, I'd like to discuss and hopefully conclude voting within 3 hours if possible.

Naii is still my top choice for lynch, solely because he's in my view much more likely to have immaterialized timpa than anyone else around. I gotta admit, though, that I'm liking his posts more and more.

Calindu seems like a decent lynch for me as well, but we're not really learning much if we lynch him, are we? Just the good ol' chance of can-be-hiding-scum

Coffee is an interesting case - I understand I'm under suspicion of being w/w with him. If he rolls mafia, then good, only one more to go. Doesn't change the fact I'm not maf myself though, but if me dying is a result of hitting scum!Coffee then it's a no-brainer, really - I'd happily bow down as a consequence of the trade-off. And if he's town, then kaempfer's theory will be confirmed false, which at least is slightly better for town as I know it's not the path to how we're winning this game, since I already know it's not true. But to reiterate myself once again, I townread Coffee and I'd much rather board one of the other trains.

TLDR:
Lynch priority imo: Naii > Cal > Coffee

Quote from: PlayerOa on September 02, 2020, 08:48:52 pm

Quote from: Calindu on September 02, 2020, 08:43:43 pm
@kae: Switch with me on Naii, I really don't believe you are mafia and I don't want to vote on you. It's unlikely I'll be able to be online before the deadline as well.
I'm also willing to switch on Coffee if Oa switches with me.
Lynching Coffee is an interesting case because if he flips town, kaempfer's theory of Coffee/me as w/w can be debunked for good. If he flips mafia, though, I seem to be in a bad spot due to said theory - but I'd happily bow down as a consequence of hitting scum.

As I said before, bad reason to be enthusiastic about the possibility of a lynch; that said he never did vote him. At that point i interpreted as Oa knows coffee is town and wants to use it to clear himself. its also possible he was going for a mortons fork move, where even if coffee was lynched, people would think he'd never suggest that move if he was actually scumpartners with coffee,

Spoiler for Calindu:

Spoiler for coffee:

Yh, while Oa would have made the much smarter framing plan, i dont really have much else on him.
Back to suspecting shock+Coffee.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #719 on:** September 07, 2020, 08:23:40 pm »

I'm gonna give 2 hours for shock to respond or an extension to go through, then I'll vote shock or use the extratime.

Poll

Who played the best mafia?

Author

Calindu

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302839#msg1302839

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302840#msg1302840

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302841#msg1302841

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302842#msg1302842

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302843#msg1302843

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302844#msg1302844

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302845#msg1302845

Naesala

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302846#msg1302846

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302847#msg1302847

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302848#msg1302848

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302849#msg1302849

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 75 - by rob77dp https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67948.msg1302850#msg1302850