Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[Coffeeditto]

I am fully aware that this means blindsiding kaempfer13, but any attack you make on kaempfer13 NOW, is simply too little, too late. They shall mostly be perceived as attempts to save your own skin, rather than actually locate mafia.

I believed Sub to be the last scum, and now I need to address that he wasn't and isn't.

Is that so? Shouldn't that have come with a lynch vote? Seeing only three lynch votes felt bad. Sub not having any scum reads (??? he did not vote on any of them, at the very least) also felt :/

Also, if you were the last town about to get mislynched because nobody wants to read into anyone else, would you also not try to convince the other town to at least give the effort?

Am I upset? A little. Should I step back from the game for a bit? Also yes.

Sure, except there really isn't any new info for me to process. The things kaempfer13 and I have been replying to mostly feel like you lagging behind on the game. I'm practically immune to AtE, to boot.

I didn’t vote because of my internet being shoddy (see post before) and because the income wouldn’t have changed. Does it matter if I vote him or no one here? There’s only one mafia alive, and he couldn’t have blitzed. There is no benefit or detriment to my lack of voting.

[Coffeeditto]

My further source of confusion comes from the Coffee vig. It was such a town move with a typical towny explanation that i townread him for it for a long time. Then he came out with his “Let’s all be friends and solve this together!” post, which reeks of roleplay for me.

I decided to lean TorB as the towniest for his advancements with claiming role and targets. His tunneling also feels genuine, though I may die in peace knowing that he eased up on that for my last day.~

Kae is big N. People explained to me already what his part was in finding mafia, but I still don’t get it. And his lashout on moe felt between crafted and genuine. And I don’t remember more than two kaevision posts, though I was away for a week.

Here are Sub’s reads on all three of us before he died. Evaluate please, he didn’t press any of us hard but he did out these.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

For one, this is the first mention I recall of you thinking of Sub to be scum. I actually considered hopping onto lynching you instead, since his last posts felt like town, but I did not want to create a tie or any other such nonsense.

Sub's read on you does not echo with me, I have different reasons. I don't town read the vig either, if anything, you seemed a bit too eager to copy rob. Whether it be regarding the vig or his voting patterns Day 1 and 2 iirc. Just like moehrpi couldn't stop talking about Durandal and me about Emma Planck, you wouldn't stop about mafia Raiden Mei. But I already adressed this earlier. In general, you do not seem to want to take responsibility for your actions, instead chalking it up to town consensus. This in stark contrast to, for example, worlwideweb3 and shockcannon.

My town lean on kaempfer13 is on making genuine (seeming?) attempts to solve throughout the entire game. As to how much success that brought about... eh, not relevant from my point of view. Trying to solve is more town credit than over half of now-confirmed town. The lash at moe felt stupid, which ironically is more of a town lean from my point of view. Surely mafia can think of something better to base their suspicions on, or just go with the flow or something...

[kaempfer13]

Additionally, you made a respektably sized wall near eod, when sub was pretty much already doomed. It didnt really feel like youd be sure he would flip scum at all.
Oh well, i dont think digging up more dirt on you is going to progress the game, so obv i'd have to look at TorB for completeness sake.
I understand  your Frustration being written off 4 days before the deciding vote, but understand that you  missed many chances to contribute by now, in addition to having the weakest remaining position from a mechanical standpoint as well.

[Coffeeditto]

For one, this is the first mention I recall of you thinking of Sub to be scum. I actually considered hopping onto lynching you instead, since his last posts felt like town, but I did not want to create a tie or any other such nonsense.

Sub's read on you does not echo with me, I have different reasons. I don't town read the vig either, if anything, you seemed a bit too eager to copy rob. Whether it be regarding the vig or his voting patterns Day 1 and 2 iirc. Just like moehrpi couldn't stop talking about Durandal and me about Emma Planck, you wouldn't stop about mafia Raiden Mei. But I already adressed this earlier. In general, you do not seem to want to take responsibility for your actions, instead chalking it up to town consensus. This in stark contrast to, for example, worlwideweb3 and shockcannon.

My town lean on kaempfer13 is on making genuine (seeming?) attempts to solve throughout the entire game. As to how much success that brought about... eh, not relevant from my point of view. Trying to solve is more town credit than over half of now-confirmed town. The lash at moe felt stupid, which ironically is more of a town lean from my point of view. Surely mafia can think of something better to base their suspicions on, or just go with the flow or something...

I agree that I hadn’t distinctly scumread sub before, as we were not in a scenario that had us lynching out of the rest  of the possible candidates. I was saying he was the scummiest out of you three; just as you are now saying I am the scummiest of kae and I.

If you were to read back through the game, you would see that rob followed my vote on dc and said he agreed to all that I was saying for the first part of the game and even slightly afterwards. Rob even says at one point that he is surprised by how much he vibed with my thought process. I was not echoing his thoughts and have been trying to solve, just not as vocal unless it was with lynches that I disagreed with. I tried to get the DC train rolling on more than one occasion. Every time we mislynched I vocalized that I would prefer DC or a scummy ian at the time.

You townread trying to lynch someone on a info role slip?

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Maybe I'll look into details of rob interaction and interactions from andre/DC again tomorrow or something, then. I town lean stupidity in general. Doesn't make me less inclined to lynch vote them, but does make me more inclined to believe they are town. worldwideweb3 was an excellent example. I had a feeling he was probably town, but this was not something I wanted to risk by giving him full control of the game.

I did state a DC/Coffee team did not seem particularly likely to me, but I'm running out of people to exclude. Going with the flow seemed like a good explanation in my mind, which means I need to reaffirm what the actual flow was.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

In the meantime, if you want a theory to work on: kaempfer13 never witnessed any cores being used. Binding and Void were not much use anyway, but the third is bound to at least be of some use. This would mean kaempfer13 freely used his own core, yes? Can you spot anywhere where this becomes apparent, perhaps through knowing too much? Core of Reason on Linkcat N0 would make his NK easy to explain. Except wait, shock targeted kaempfer13, so it cannot have been through him.

Him being mafia should also provide him insight in Raiden Meis actual targets and any confusion surrounding them should be fake. Give your analysis on kaempfer13's actions and reveals during N3. How does this all fit together with him as scum? This is the main reason I cannot currently see him as scum. Conversely, my N3 actions are why kaempfer13 is unlikely to see me as scum. I do not think you were particularly active around then, but it is a major reason for the mutual town read.

[kaempfer13]

So in order for TorB to be scum:

Scenario 1: He's emma planck and considered theresa the bigger threat for some reason. This explains why theresa got sniped immediately and he wouldnt be able to find durandal until n2. What doesnt really fit here is a)I think he made it quite clear that durandal was the far better role and b) he made several posts alluding to already knowing who durandal is.
In order to force this narrative we have to assume that he didnt actually know moe was durandal or purposely delayed killing moe, so that we would come to this exact conclusion that emma cant be scum.

Scenario 2: He's emma planck and did sth else. This is just ??? and strictly less likely than scenario 1 (in case he's scum obv, otherwise we can take what he says at face value).

Scenario 3: He was a different role all along. Due to uniqueness of roles this leaves himeko and lieserl. Lieserl is unlikely, because theres no reason to holster that ever. So that leaves himeko. Obv as scum he still knew who the raidens were and i suppose he never posted who durandal actually was until moe claimed. So it could have been an elaborate scheme to bait out durandal claim. Whats weird is how quickly he concluded that both raidens should be scum, while at most 1 was actually caught and just how quickly raiden found seele was suspicious. Considering he was widely townread throughout the game he probably could have afforded taking that slower.
Besides this whole thing seems way too fpsy for him.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

So I read up on Day 1 to see how the flow went and how Coffee fit into it. Here's some interesting highlights:

Spoiler for relevant:

dumb idea I remembered from Town of Salem
Raiden can protect away cop-type roles from the nightkill if they are forced to claim

congrats ian, you're useful now

Spoiler for Raiden Mei(defensive):

Extremely powerful for scum, but situational for town. Can be used to protect power roles, alternate with medic for best effect.

Just saw this. Did you not read his guide?

DC - Coffee interaction seems relevant with DC confirmed scum. Even more so with DC now confirmed to be Seele with Raidens ability at that point in time.

out of these 3, I would lynch DC for his scumdumbtells and info other than the filler, but otherwise, I would rather get ian. for now, my vote lies on dc

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - worldwideweb3, Calindu, Linkcat, Coffeeditto
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (5) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi, rob77dp, Naii_the_Baf
worldwideweb3 (3) - iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef, Submachine

This is the post where Coffee actually started voting DC Day 1. There was a lead wagon with scum on it, so piling that further would probably be a bad idea. The idea that you pushed DC... just no, you did not hop onto the train until it was already a leading wagon.

I scumread ian a bit for just going afk after people stopped pushing him, but I see more of a lack in content from recent DC posts and I would rather him than MasterWalks; I see more potential output from MW and www3 in the future.

Also relevant.

dawn claimed he was hit once by the 2hit vig, so he is probably dead, but i townread him outing the vig hit. can't rule out the possibility he was lying about it to not get lynched, though.

If this is the case, I would like to see a counter-claim from Cecilia. I figured this was implied, but a counter-claim pretty much either proves dawn or the counter-claimer as scum. dawn can out the identity of Cecilia if the counter-claimer is lying.

lol, you trying to make town waste a mislynch or something?

Is there something you want to tell us w3?

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - worldwideweb3, Calindu, Linkcat, Coffeeditto
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (5) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi, rob77dp, Naii_the_Baf
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef, Submachine, andretimpa

And here comes the full spread out mafia votes we've come to know and love.
Or maybe here instead, depending on your perspective:

It's ironic considering I'm not doing my due either and instead going for a walk, because i have a  now, but I'm kinda pissed that ian just noped out of the thread even though I tried my darndest to provoke him to post actually usefull stuff in order to prove me wrong.

As such, while I'm out this is a simple pressure vote, it's not final.

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (5) - worldwideweb3, Calindu, Linkcat, Coffeeditto, rob77dp
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef, Submachine, andretimpa
shockcannon (1) - Naii_the_Baf
iancudorinmarian(1) - kaempfer13


In the meantime what ^doyou_guysthink^aboutan_extension

Immediately followed by:

kae, could you instead find a scumread in the current three people instead of pushing on someone the vote will not flip onto? the same goes for shock, killsda, and naii. it only harms the town to split the vote unless you think all 3 of w3, dc and mw are town. I want to lynch ian too but we couldn't get the vote rolling right now.

I'm not sure what to make of this. There were two and a half hours left, so I'm honestly not sure why you did not go for ian at that point, or when his wagon gained traction? Going for bus credit?

i would want to have a reason too, but putting a meme after it is not the way I would go about portraying my nonchalance.

Well sorry I don't portray it like you then :/

that's valid, I try not to base my reads off of meta from past games. it doesn't change the fact that you're still not contributing to the town in a meaningful way. both scumtell and dumbtell, not mutually exclusive

I'm trying my best to, and if my best is not enough then perhaps you can give me some pointers after this game?

More Coffee - DC interaction.

Lmao, top level ninja.

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp, Submachine
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (1) - moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (1) - andretimpa
shockcannon (4) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, MasterWalks, iancudorinmarian
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3
iancudorinmarian (4) - kaempfer13, Linkcat, PlayerOa, TheonlyrealBeef

Relevant part where ian wagon gained traction.

Spoiler for irrelevant:

Tell us what you know about DC, moe. There gotta be something.

This post is hilarious in retrospect.

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to be confirming these or not, but Cecilia went with TorB's plan. Just to confirm if Cecilia is found, that they did not actively go against what Town wanted/agreed upon, even though it would be rather stupid if they did at this stage (regarding targeting inactive users).

So regardless if Rita is mafia or not, the people who actively disagreed/targeted Kaempfer could be interesting to look at, and this becomes especially important if Rita is mafia.

The Cecilia part is important to note for who targeted who, but it sounds like it was aligned with how town asked, like you said. This could be important later. As far as the disagreeing with Kaempfer, the way he had repeatedly addressed his dissatisfaction with being targeted by her was kind of odd, but not out of character, and I could feasibly see a shock(rita) or town rita fun-using their ability just for the hell of it, even though it has many more potential negative outcomes than positive for town; we hadn't discussed such before the night ended, so someone who hadn't considered the possibilities could have just wasted it on a random town. We will need to see how rita or kaempfer flip.

By the way I am of the opinion that a Day 1 lynch has a 0% chance of hitting mafia without some extremely heavy misplays, but the information gained is likely worth the lynch

3/15 chance.

Spoiler for I am Rita:

1.) I am Rita.

It may be suspicious to say this, but if I were anyone else I would basically take this to mean that shock is a confirmed town. No. I'm crazy, but I'm not that stupid and I do appreciate winning. Targeting a random town, even if I know their potential role due to my mafia teammates is still a bad play as mafia because the town would obviously call me out as kaempf has done, causing attention to be brought to myself when players already want to lynch me before the game starts. Not to mention, I would probably have mafia teammates telling me not to use my role, especially on someone who it would work on, and someone (kaempf) who will likely be vocal about the effect. The thing is, you could easily hide in other roles or not claim until investigated or lynched. There would be no need for you to go on the defense about Rita abilities like as such.

Sure, I guess both kaempf and I could both be mafia. If you truly believe that though, it would be better to lynch kaempf first, because lynching me and flipping town doesn't clear kaempf as town. On the other hand, if we assume the only real scenario where I'm mafia as Rita is if kaempf is also mafia, then lynching kaempf first will either clear me, or convict me (yes there's a scenario where I'm town and kaempf is mafia, but in that case we still kill a mafia). Ideally, we avoid lynching either of you, but a kaempf lynch wouldn't be awful as we know he isn't Durandal. The issue arises if he is Theresa, but he would out that if so.


Now, if I was Rita, why would I use my role N0? I've thought a lot about this, whether or not I am actually Rita. In my opinion, using Rita N0 has way more upside than downside despite you all bandwagoning Torb's "logical" plan for each role:

- Because everyone thinks using Rita is so scummy, and since using Rita as mafia doesn't actually have too much upside without knowing everyone's role, using Rita N0 is about as town of a move as it gets, which can basically confirm someone as town if it is successful enough for the recipient to confirm its use (since you all are so keen on getting reads day 1) That's absolutely not true. That doesn't confirm someone in either direction, and it would be dumb in either direction to claim because you would get scumread either way. It would just show as a ballsy or dumb maf.

- The only real info roles Rita could be interfering negatively with are Theresa and Durandal. HOWEVER, there are 3 potential mafia Rita could interfere with, which is a positive outcome, especially if the mafia hit has core of death. AND THEN, we have to factor in the fact that Theresa and Durandal could be roles given to mafia. The way I see it, it's roughly 50/50, so no net gain or loss compared to not using the ability as Rita. You forgot about driving the doc save away from someone and confirming a kill with a maf-sided vig role or the core of death.

- I personally don't believe in N0 reads being any what accurate in determining whether someone is a cop or not. If someone has hinted so obviously that they are cop, then they're just helping mafia anyways. With that said, Rita interfering with Fu Hua has no net gain or loss, because Fu Hua is essentially guessing between all 18 players anyways, so having it protect Rita N0 is not any worse than who Fu Hua was originally protecting. If anything, Fu Hua protects the most useless role on N0 while still maintaining the same probability of protecting a town and leaving all 17 other players open to protection that next night once there is more info. Again, a mafia Rita can take the doc off of someone and confirm a vig kill.

- The rest of the roles being interfered with really aren't a big deal in my opinion. Honestly, probably a win to hit Yae Sakura, because Yae probably shouldn't be roleblocking anyways, since Yae actually stops roles from working and 3 of them, whereas Rita only redirects 1. Some roles, its annoying the individual players to get redirected to Rita, but honestly shouldn't make a difference in the outcome of the game compared to potentially hitting the previously mentioned roles. Valid.

So basically if I rolled Rita, then yes, I would definitely use it N0 because I actually see the upside beyond the superficial "downside" that everyone else sees. You all need to think outside the box more. If you're so set on SOLVING THE GAME THROUGH LOGIC, then we should all just role reveal now and lynch anyone who doesn't follow it, including me. It's 15 town and 3 mafia, and there are more than enough useful roles to figure out who's mafia or who is lying about their actions before we all get NKed. If you all want to role reveal and solve the game now, I'll happily follow along. If we're expected to follow Torb's "initial thoughts" on role usage, then I might deviate according to my own opinions. Spouting about how we're playing wrong and we should listen to you or we're dumb is not making you look like a useful player.

Spoiler for I am not Rita:

I have also thought a lot about this scenario, regardless of if I'm Rita or not. One potential scenario involves mafia Rita and probably another mafia role that either allows them to block the Rita target or give them knowledge of the Rita target to ensure Rita doesn't die (which is actually pretty unlikely to happen). In this case, the mafia Rita gets the benefit of blocking kaempf while also knowing that myself and MW are the most likely players to be blamed. The upside:

- MW or shock are forced to role claim, giving mafia more info
- MW or shock are lynched, allowing for an easy town lynch day 1, that probably doesn't give many reads and creates voting patterns that are VERY EASY for mafia to hide in. I don't think anyone is getting town or mafia cred for voting me.
- We waste all day talking about Rita, which is probably not helpful at all for town (unless you're willing to stop casting my opinions aside because of my character and realize that the things I'm writing in both these spoilers are actually quite insightful and go much deeper into the game than any of you are doing) Come on, guy.
- Forces kaempf to soft claim or narrow his role range, as well as potentially getting other players to make claims or hints towards their roles, narrowing the potential field for cops and info roles,

Downsides:

- Depending on which roles town got, could be very easy to confirm who the actual Rita is the next night, and if it's not shock or MW, then it might lead to an insta lynch of the real Rita (HOWEVER, if they have Cocolia, have certain info roles themselves, or can role block, then they might be willing to go forth with this planning anyways, knowing they can get away with it while reaping the upside mentioned above.)
- If they actually just random used Rita, they're probably even crazier than me, and upon that realization may have to quit elements for life. what
- Everyone considers it scummy to use Rita and why draw attention to yourself when you can just hide behind Torb's plan and Rob/Linkcat's talking and get slight town reads from everyone?More kills from maf means easier win?


Now let's explore the last scenario in which Rita is not me and is also town. In this case, they either came to the same realization I did, in which using Rita N0 can actually have some upside, or they're an idiot and are lying, and their name is MasterWalks. Who knows? I'm sure we'll find out soon enough though.

Thoughts inside spoilers

Making a couple more posts, should be 3 total

In retrospect, this feels like a soft claim Cecilia.

This is going to look really bad for me if DC flips mafia lmao

Solved game, the third mafia was NK-ed N1.

This took a rather long time, if I do something similar for Day 2, it will have to wait until later.

[kaempfer13]

Wait, Ive spent the whole day with my grandparents and missed absolutely nothing?
Coffee if you're town you're in the unique position to know that mechanical reasons ( other than ian being modconfirmed ofc) dont weigh that much. So this at least gives you the ability to solve this game before sky announces it, while the 2 of us struggle to see a reason why it wouldnt be you by poe.
Granted if this were the case I would absolutely make the wrong ccall were I in your shoes. So  if you want to try, pls do so asap, otherwise I suggest we do shorten this after all.

[skyironsword]

Night 6 has ended. Notifications are currently being sent.

Day 7 will begin shortly. Please wait warmly.

[skyironsword]

Day 7

iancudorinmarian was nightkilled. He was Kallen Kaslana.

Spoiler for Living Players:

• TheonlyrealBeef
• kaempfer13
• Coffeeditto

Spoiler for Dead Players:

• shockcannon (Day 1 Lynch) Rita Rossweisse
• Linkcat (Night 1 Nightkill) Theresa Apocalypse
• dawn to dusk (Night 1 Abyssal Flower) Shigure Kira
• Naii_the_Baf (Day 2 Lynch) Rozaliya Olenyeva
• PlayerOa (Night 2 Nightkill) Cocolia
• MasterWalks (Day 3 Lynch) Kiana Kaslana
• moehrpi (Night 3 Nightkill) Durandal
• andretimpa (Day 4 Lynch) Raiden Mei (Core of Binding)
• rob77dp (Night 4 Nightkill) Fu Hua
• DoubleCapitals (Day 5 Lynch) Seele Vollerei (Core of Void)
• killsdazombies (Night 5 Nightkill) Sin Mal
• Calindu (Night 5 Abyssal Flower) Liliya Olenyeva
• worldwideweb3 (Night 5 Red Thread of Fate) Bronya Zaychik
• Submachine (Day 6 Lynch) Yae Sakura
• iancudorinmarian (Night 6 Nightkill) Kallen Kaslana

Day 7 has ended.