Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[worldwideweb3]

I would like to see DC disclose everything he knows, then have the rest claim. I hope we can agree on the first part for now.

first part, yh. Might still be worth not having the rest claim to hide Fu Hua imo

[TheonlyrealBeef]

The cons of messing up targeting with Raiden Mei far, far outweighs the insignificant chance of having a helpful kill redirect on a night with no nightkill. Unless you actually knew their alignments, which makes you mafia. Lynch andretimpa.

[worldwideweb3]

The cons of messing up targeting with Raiden Mei far, far outweighs the insignificant chance of having a helpful kill redirect on a night with no nightkill. Unless you actually knew their alignments, which makes you mafia. Lynch andretimpa.

i tried to  :'(

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Still, if we want to give andre/DC the benefit of the doubt, kaempfs plan works.

Ok raiden protect moe and seele protect torb i guess.

Mafia definitely wants us dead, so raiden/seele getting NK-ed is logical and preferred over getting mislynched. If one of us dies, town immediately knows whom to lynch.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

She already did. Same targets nothing happens. 1 target the same- target absorbs all 3 things

This seems to go really well with that plan, since mafia will no longer be able to NK the one taking the hit to hit the power role.

[rob77dp]

Spoiler for WIFOM + RL things, don't open if you don't care, or won't care?:

After the abject disaster the previous game was for me --- getting shock!stormed after investing so much, taking time off from family and kids' things, slacking behind on work, and other RL things I should not exactly have been doing to play that game (73). All that effort went totally into the $#@!er when shock decided to go full fill_in_your_own_term_here and ridiculously thunderdome t/t with me where I Managed to CORRECTLY as town identify that he was also town and push elsewhere... not to dredge up the whole thing, but I attest that it gave me a rEALLY sour taste toward putting in top-poster kind of effort. So the fallout is this game you've seen me miss two EOD (1 and 3) to do family and then a long-time reconnected friend things, and to try to stay caught up at work, and generally prioritize this game more properly in my life. You can thank the above mentioned turn of events if you don't like the rob I've become in Elements mafia.

So, yes, I missed EOD again today, and I"ll admit to not even once checking in until a few minutes ago reading up after the day's activities have settled. I'll be putting a few posts together but in about 40 minutes I"ll be closing this game again in order to do other things more important to me. #sorrynotsorry

Give me a bit to re-read start-of-night again here, because I am somewhat sure I have a few things to say about a few aspects. Also, I do NOT support any sort of mass roleclaim yet. I think the claims we have on the table now can sort into at least one scum and looks quite possibly two...? Stay tuned

[rob77dp]

Getting a serious vibe of rob just not caring this game. I kinda scumread it as you  can easily pickup from many of my posts, but I've also never seen a scum trying to save a town last minute before. Idk

rob probably is content with shock lynch and fulfilled his goal this game. I'm sure many share your observation about rob.

No, once again I read him as town last game despite his ridiculous thunderdome false case against me last game... and I was leaning him quite town again this game but missed EOD and you pleebs mislynched town!shock. I am not happy that a town shock died that way. The vibe you're getting kae (that moe thinks lots may share) is quite accurate that I have dialed WAY back my level of caring about these online games. It is not a slight to anyone as an offense, but I have my reasons. Alright, now I really will attempt to keep it to more game-type replies etc. :thumbsup:

[rob77dp]

Well, that didn't go very well. Anyway, since I'm already considered town by most and am a juicy nightkill target, let me sweeten the deal: hard claim Emma Planck.
N0 target: Durandal, I'm keeping the result a secret for now.
N2 target: Raiden Mei, there were TWO results. One of them must be Seele Vollerei.
If you plan to out use Cecilia + Thread of Fate to kill two players, know that the chances of at least one being scum and purposefully interfering are extremely high.

The only way I see TorB as trying to ridiculously play this Emma claim as mafia would be if Durandal is also scum or if Durandal would be DEAD already. The latter hasn't happened and the former (Durandal!moe and Emma!TorB both being scum) seems SO SO SO far fetched for the timing as scum have town on the ropes a little bit, no way that scum duo goes crazy fancy play for no reason at this stage. I am all in ride-or-die moving forward as TorB's claim 100% true. I know this was already the general thread direction, but I want to put it out there for clarity. I'm also all-in on buying moe's claim as real.

timpa = Raiden Mei original
DC = Raiden ability via passive copying
---> The odds of this particularly useful-to-scum ability getting copied by a town from a town is almost ludicrous to consider. ---> It seems very very likely at least one is scum and very probably both are scum, right? Like if timpa is town and DC is scum then scum team probably feeling like winning lottery when he was hit with that scum-useful ability on a N0 when the Raiden ability being used seems to heavily favor being used only by scum. It really makes sense both are scum and timpa felt Oa was a good place to dump the other half of his intent to get DC a useful scum role.

Spoiler for timpa things that don't add up with his claims:

Now that we have some EOD dynamics I think I can build some reads

Spoiler for Hidden:

Linkcat (n-) Most of what he posted during the day was fairly neutral. The way he pushed for a shock lynch could just be bad blood from the previous game (which shouldn't be a thing imo) but that would also be a perfect cover.

Torb (v) The effort he put into strategizing and discussing strats was very townie imo (scum wants a confused town, discussing roles clears up confusion). On top of that he insisted on going after someone he actually had a read on during EOD.

Oa (v) Unless there is a ruse involving a mafia Durandal, oa is confirmed. The way he played in EOD was similar to torb, which points in the same direction

ian (n-) Only a few low content posts during the day is remembering me the ian from the previous game (tho apparently he always plays like this). He was mostly self preserving during EOD which I consider NAI

w3 (n) My vote on him was based on an awkward interaction that he had with rob, which was the closest to a tell I had that far. During EOD, the de-escalation between him and DC felt like mutual self preservation. Tho he kept defending DC even when he was top lynch, which is not something I see scum doing, so I'm putting him back to neutral.

MW (n) his posting has been lackluster so far, so not much to form a read. During EOD his only move was hopping on the shock train (from a vote on kae?). Needs more for a proper read.

dawn (n-) Nearly no posts, not even a vote (when people agreed on voting all days).

kae (n) His interaction with moe was weird to say the least, but I also think that was just kae missing a joke. His voting always on people with no votes yet strikes me as someone without a solid idea on who to vote, but still trying to avoid Bronya shenanigans (I'd say that's NAI in D1)

Sub (n) His posting has felt mostly neutral to me, during EOD he just parked the vote on DC, which is not much to read imo, just means they are likely not w/w.

kdz (n) Not much substance so far, but he has a good excuse for that. Just parked on dawn and stuck to it (even tho dawn will probably just die to Cecilia). Needs more for a better read.

Coffee (v) Has been actively discussing strategy and has been proactive, which is good for town. During voting he stuck since the beggining in the DC train (which as with Sub just tells me they are likely not alligned)

rob (n) He's quieter than usual, but still prodding people to talk (tho with rob that's NAI, as he does that as scum too). Wasn't around for EOD, so nothing to read there.

DC (n) His interaction with Link was a bit awkward, but on the other hand DC is also a shitposter and that could very well be just memeing. Did mostly self preservation at EOD and had to leave early. Will be keeping a closer eye on him, but I'll stick with an n for now

Cal (n) Few posts, but they at least had some content. Wasn't around for EOD but parked on DC. Need more for a better read.

Naii (n) Not enough content to make a read so far. Was voting just for the sake of voting (due to Bronya). I feel like mafia wouldn't do that unless all the wagons (DC, MW and w3 at the time of his vote) were town.

moe (n+) This is more of a feeling tbh, I got some town vibes from the way he reacted to kae. Wasn't around for EOD.

--> So where is your scumread-push follow-up on who you thought N0 was scummy to get a redirect of what might hit "towny"Oa?

During the night my reads remained mostly the same (only exception being my scumlean on dawn softening a bit, but that's not relevant anymore). I'll be voting for now on the only surviving n- on my list


iancudorinmarian (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, andretimpa
DoubleCapitals (1) - rob77dp
rob77dp (2) - worldwideweb3, MasterWalks
worldwideweb3 (1) - iancudorinmarian
Naii_the_Baf (1) - PlayerOa

You still haven't scumread DC but your N0 claim heavily insinuates you were/should have been... this would have been a GREAT chance for you to push scumread!DC instead you go elsewhere? If you're scum which quite likely right now, and DC is town SURELY SURELY you would have been ok pushing him with me like you were later with town!MW?? You treated two scumreads that I've pushed a lot VERY differently. I think you and DC are both scum.

My vote onto DC, trouble getting naltest vote count copied >.<


Any appetite still for DC lynch? I know he is AFK, but last game I went too sfot on my scumreads at EOD's...

I'm not that confortable jumping on the wagon Coffee pushed so hard. I'm staying on ian for now

THIS is almost like you're townreading DC? Where did you change your mind? It certainly isn't in your ISO. You never pushed DC despite you N0 action claim insinuating you scumread him N0... you never helped me push his wagon (but you did so on my town!MW scumread??). You actually defer AWAY from a DC vote/push when I asked you to go there. Hmm.

Didn't had time to post reads earlier, but here they are

Spoiler for Torb (v):

Only weird move I saw here was him moving his vote from ian to w3, right after ian's targets were revealed

But then we would still not know whether ian actually used his ability, hrmmm...

Oh, I know! Couldn't Lieserl Einstein target ian while he uses his ability on two targets that are not himself?

No, because what if he just doesn’t use his ability?

And there comes the Coffee ninja post while I realize this.
And Frederica Tesla is moot in case he uses a Honkai Core instead.

For reference, I used by ability N1 on w3 and TorB

o.O

iancudorinmarian (3) - andretimpa, killsdazombies, PlayerOa
DoubleCapitals (2) - rob77dp, Coffeeditto
rob77dp (1) - MasterWalks
worldwideweb3 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Naii_the_Baf, TheonlyrealBeef
killsdazombies (1) - worldwideweb3
MasterWalks (3) - Calindu, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
Submachine (1) - kaempfer13

That sounds better, now I'll let someone break ties again

still looks pretty minor to me, so I won't change my classification

Spoiler for Oa (v):

I see no reason to change Oa's read. He is as close as mechanicaly confirmed as we have

Spoiler for ian (n) UPDATED from n-:

The update is mostly due to mulling over his claim a bit. On one hand there are better things to claim than Red thread of Fate, on the other hand no repeating roles + the lynch all liars policy could make a counterclaim likely, even if not during EOD. Overall it seems more town than scum looking in retrospect (or so does my gut say )

Adding up on that, we can test ian's loyalty with Coffee, so I don't see a reason to push harder here

Also, this is a good point, even tho it was brought up after EOD

Could we use ian's ability to help control Coffee? If this is not a dumb idea I'd be willing to move my vote from him.

Sure, let mafia know ian is going to use his ability on Coffee and his next target.

Spoiler for w3 (n):

During EOD, he stayed for quite a bit on kdz, before starting the Naii train and staying there until EOD. He also suggests going for DC or Cal. Not 100% sure how to read this (self preservation again, like in EOD1?)

iancudorinmarian (3) - andretimpa, killsdazombies, PlayerOa
DoubleCapitals (1) - Coffeeditto
rob77dp (1) - MasterWalks
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, Naii_the_Baf, TheonlyrealBeef, rob77dp
Naii_the_Baf (1) - worldwideweb3
MasterWalks (4) - Calindu, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi, kaempfer13

Naiis vote on me is the only one i feel sketchy on my wagon. Cal and DC are other good targets imo.

Spoiler for MW (n-) UPDATED from n:

Low content on posts deserves a scum bump at this point, imo. Also, this post

I'm left to continue talking to myself for a bit longer before I have to leave again - luck you!

MW - what is this? You're scumreading me because Link was the NK?? That doesn't compute (trying to avoid WIFOM scenarios here, but eh)... you have no other stronger scumleans or suspiciouns at this point now that shock is dead whom you say you scumread for redirecting kae on N0 as now-flipped-town!Rita-shock? Then you don't really want to lynch either of moe or myself, your top two scumreads... What gives? Seems quite shaky to me... but it is certainly appreciated (or more) that you're putting things out there [alignment TBD].

You engaging in this much conversation is making me townlean you now. I do still feel iffy about you and the link NK but your engagement outweighs that.

That's got to be one of the worse reasons to tr rob, he always engages in conversation. Are you trying to deflect rob's scumlean on you with this?

Spoiler for kae (n):

imo the most relevant thing about kae so far is his read on DC (based on wagonomics)

Reminder that i still think day1 wagonomics make dc town

iancudorinmarian (2) - andretimpa, killsdazombies
rob77dp (1) - MasterWalks
worldwideweb3 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Naii_the_Baf
Naii_the_Baf (1) - worldwideweb3
MasterWalks (5) - Calindu, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi, kaempfer13, PlayerOa
DoubleCapitals (3) - rob77dp, Coffeeditto, TheonlyrealBeef

I didn't lynch voted shock last time to save DC, I lynch voted shock to prevent no lynch. So there we go, no issue with me.

In fact noone voted with intent to save dc

which will be interesting if we lynch DC, but so far just paints a correlation between the two for me.

During EOD he was on the MW wagon, then jumped to Naii

Spoiler for Sub (?):

AWOL, will get modkilled if this doesn't change

Spoiler for kdz (n-) UPDATED from n:

Putting him on n- until he cuts down on the breadposting

Spoiler for Coffee (n) UPDATED from v:

The whole Cecilia thing rubbed me a bit the wrong way. After thinking about it for a bit I still think he's more likely town than scum. Basicaly, the rest of his game makes little sense if this was a scum premeditated move. Why bother building town cred when that is known to be different than your usual play style, if you are just planning on doing something like this? Coffee could have just coasted, killed dawn and forced Emma to spend the ability to find him (unless he thought dawn would reveal him if he was just coasting).

Anyway, I'd be a bit cautious about him, until we get more information.

Spoiler for rob (n):

I don't see anything out of the ordinary here, rob being inquisitive and pushing his scumreads is his regular play (NAI) and there is no reason from mechanics to scumread him so far

(spoiler removed by rob to emphasize in my current post)DC (n)
I agree with kae here that EOD1 makes him look more towny, but I'd really want more content besides bread, before giving him a town bump

Spoiler for Cal (n-) UPDATED from n:

His lack of posting makes i difficult to get any read. I think this deserves a scum bump at this point of the game

Spoiler for moe (n+):

I'm liking his posts so far. They are a bit hard to follow, but still show his thought process

Wasn't again around for EOD.

TL;DR

town bumps: ian
scum bumps: MW, kdz, Coffee, Cal

---> You really really really should have at some point thinking DC was scummy if you really thought N0 he was scummy enough to redirect onto from towny Oa?!!?

------> I am very hard (like 95%) feeling you were just giving scumbuddy!DC a shiny scum-useful ability ASAP on N0 while also making sure he didn't get harmed early.

[rob77dp]

@TorB-
I think Raiden Mei swaps ALL targeting on two players... you posted thinking it would allow scum to prevent saves from a NK but the role description for Raiden Mei directly states NK included gets swapped.

My time to look over the recent developments is now at a close. I bid adieu for now.


In closing--
DC very very likely scum, and timpa too.

[DoubleCapitals]

I go to sleep, and I come back and people wanna lynch me, what's new?

Yeah TorB's right, I'm Seele, I got slapped N0 with Raiden, and I didn't use my ability all game, because that would be stupid, and I already implied I didn't since D1, because I said it would be stupid. I coulda saved people, but I knew that the OG Raiden was being stupid and I didn't wanna contribute to that mess and I didn't know the implications if I picked the same targets or something.

N0: Oa and DC. Even tho there is no NK, we still have Rozalya to worry about. Oa looked like someone that wouldn't be a doc top priority (I'd say Link and rob were these), but still useful to town - (which is more or less the reasoning for the N0 in last game). DC on the other hand seemed expendable (mostly shitposts there).

Expendable? Excuse me? Plus I finally got a shiny fun role and you, you had to take it all away from me... Sucks even more backreading and realised I coulda been the second Dura too... bah :/.

Since MW is dead, Coffee/ian/timpa then, calling it. Probably all this new info is certainly not gonna help my case, but if I count correct we got at least 2 mislynches left so, eh. I'm sure even I'm the next mislynch we're gonna win anyway /shrug

[DoubleCapitals]

Also rob, I know you hate my guts in this game, but take care of yourself man... no silly children's game is worth losing yourself over...

[rob77dp]

Had to come back to post one more.... (and I see DC is feeling the heat!)

ShowerThoughts^(TM):
If DC is scum, then as a somewhat vocal player this game and someone carrying around a scumread of DC and trying to lynch him more than once ---- why am I still alive? (Could be a bit narcissistic but that's the thought: if it is DC as part of the team then why kill Link on N1 without trying to kill me?) Hmmmmm. Anyway, hopefully you stay active posting this Night + Day phase DC - if you're town then it only helps us try to see that in your posts and not kill you and if you're scum well you can only risk exposing teammates or finding some quality lolcatting to contribute a little of.