Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[dawn to dusk]

With Shock inactive, I doubt anyone would have tied the vote. And even if they did, that would be almost a guaranteed lynch on the next vote, as it is such a horribly scummy thing to do, considering everyone has stated how bad no lynching is.
And by saying "distaste towards lynching shock", I meant more of a preference towards the other train, due to townread patterns as you explained in your earlier vote for DC.

By the way I do trust that Cecilia won't kill me tonight, and instead start to prepare kills elsewhere. There is an uncomfortable amount of implications of Cecilia killing me tonight

You can mitigate this by hard-claiming not Bronya. We dislike how Bronya influences lynch voting and you were the only person not to lynch vote.

I claim not Bronya, and if wished, I will place my vote on someone with no votes to remove the possibility of Bronya votes (disregarding the case where I must vote out of self-preservation).

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Link tied the vote at that time. If you look through the lynch history, you will see Oa and I created an unintentional three way tie at some point, it happened before and can happen again. There was very little time to react before hard deadline.

[kaempfer13]

At least this time around there is some actual wagonomics to work with; will get on lynchlog soon^tm

[moehrpi]

I don't see why defending against an unsubstantiated scumread get me so strong townreads (rob, Coffee [only a 'slight townlean' in case of Coffee; I remembered the 'I like his reaction a lot' just a bit better]). I take it but at the same time feel a bit uneasy that little scrutiny early might turn on me in later stages of the game. Fortunately MW comes to the rescue:

Moe and Naii are proabbly the sketchiest votes on me. They voted once the wagon started rolling and havent really said much against me. Seems like they are gunning for a town lynch.

I am gunning for a lynch and votes from everyone alive. So, I do vote and vote people who do not contribute as much as others. I hate pressure on people so they spew out information D1 which is simply not there, but I have incorporated the No Lynch = bad mentality. Seeing Oa on you made that decision (too) easy for me.

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (3) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (2) - PlayerOa, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef, Submachine, andretimpa
shockcannon (4) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, Linkcat, MasterWalks
iancudorinmarian(1) - kaempfer13
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3

Dont wanna lycnh W3 yet.
Dont wanna lynch DC yet.
Dont wanna No Lynch.

Ill go with the scummiest person on this list that isnt moe.

This took me a bit by surprise. I take it your reservation is due to me being absent? But also that I am your biggest scumread? I'll try to take it as an incentive to make better plays in your eyes in the future. :|

I'm not town leaning a single member of the shock train, nor do I have a scum lean on shock himself, so I'm currently stuck voting on my only scum lean. No lynch isn't optimal, but I'll get a really good laugh out of it, seeing how shock and w3 both wanted no lynch and they're the top wagons.

The first sentence resonated very well with me. +cred


I only finished reading page 44 and sky's mod post.

[PlayerOa]

v
kaempfer - seems genuinely interested in solving
TorB - a lot of his thoughts allocate with mine

n+
dawn - going out early on calling out Cecilia gives slight town cred in my book. I believe his claim on not being Bronya, but if he turns out to be, it's looking real bad for him
moe - hard buddying me, which isn't even slightly controversial, but his posts seem genuine to me. Explains his MW vote on his trust on me, fair enough.
w3 - just like moe, he's playing exactly the way I'd expect town w3 to play. I'm not implying it's a difficult task, since it's not, but his play makes sense

n-
MW - I like they way he responded on the pressure, but I'm not convinced yet. Being on shock
Naii - getting weird vibes, although his confusion is likely legit, as I've felt just the way he has on earlier occasions. I don't like his reasoning on voting MW, although it might sound hypocrital as 1) I was on MW and 2) MW is a mere n- for me
ian - kinda had to stay at a pile bigger than his, so can't blame him on staying on shock, but the timing of his vote is not looking good to me. The post about "don't kill me as I'm OP in the endgame" without any more substance (he said it was a mashup of many factors) is kinda throwing me off.

The rest are standing at n. For now.

Piling up on shockcannon just because sHoCk Is ShOcK is a scummy move in my book and it's definitely influencing my readlist.

[iancudorinmarian]

Regarding Oa, I know you're probably meme-ing, but just in case: I never said I'm OP in lategame. All I said is that I'll be more useful than I am right now, so lynching me because I'm one of the more "useless" people right now is not really a valid reason to lynch me. Nothing more, nothing less.

[PlayerOa]

Yep the way I wrote OP can be seen as memeing, but it's at least not built on nothing. I'm probably putting too much into it, though, I realize that. You know I always scumread you by default :*

However, I never based my read on the fact that you're so-called "useless", though. That's pretty important to me to make clear.

[DoubleCapitals]

Eep, haven't been on the chopping block for as long as I remembered, if anyone thought I stopped being jokey and shit, that was probably why.

Reads maybe a bit later, but before that, @MW I never considered you as a joke, I respect ya as a player and a friend alright? If you embrace your own meme it's fine but if it hurts too much do sound out and I'll stop, and I'm sure the rest would stop too. In the same vein, ian I don't think you're useless either

[Coffeeditto]

I was rereading abilities to make a suggested use list for tonight again. However, look at this:

Raiden's Phantom Image redirects abilities from both players to one another. This could mean that a Raiden could redirect a doc off of somebody. Town!Raiden shouldn't use their ability at all if they're in a game.

Raiden Mei Phantom Image (ER) Target exactly two players. Tonight, anything that targets the first player affects the second player instead, and vice versa. This includes the nightkill.

Does this mean that a mafia!Raiden could just nightkill one of their own and Phantom Image the night kill away from them and onto somebody, including someone protected by a doctor? The priority is what makes this troublesome, as it is the very first ability on the priority list. I would love to hear thoughts, or can we simply not protect against this??

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Town Raiden Mei can also protect confirmed town power roles this way. Depending on whom you redirect the nightkill to, it might even kill mafia. You might redirect the medic, but if the medic protected the target that would be nightkilled, it will still protect the new target and prevent a nightkill from taking place. The main problem is redirecting town vigis onto other town or Raiden Mei being scum. I see no reason not to use it. A random redirect from a likely NK target changes the chance of mafia getting NK-ed from 0% to something more. It's still a minor chance, but an improvement.

For the specific case of nightkill on a mafia and redirecting it onto someone else... there is only one Fu Hua at most, since a town Fu Hua would not know whom is mafia, there is little benefit to go through such lengths yet, I'd think.

[MasterWalks]

Eep, haven't been on the chopping block for as long as I remembered, if anyone thought I stopped being jokey and shit, that was probably why.

Reads maybe a bit later, but before that, @MW I never considered you as a joke, I respect ya as a player and a friend alright? If you embrace your own meme it's fine but if it hurts too much do sound out and I'll stop, and I'm sure the rest would stop too. In the same vein, ian I don't think you're useless either

Thanks DubC! I'm good with the meme. I dig the "are you pulling a MW" when someone says they scum read a post thats really not all that sus.

I dont have much for reads right now. To address this:

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (3) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (2) - PlayerOa, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef, Submachine, andretimpa
shockcannon (4) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, Linkcat, MasterWalks
iancudorinmarian(1) - kaempfer13
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3

Dont wanna lycnh W3 yet.
Dont wanna lynch DC yet.
Dont wanna No Lynch.

Ill go with the scummiest person on this list that isnt moe.

This took me a bit by surprise. I take it your reservation is due to me being absent? But also that I am your biggest scumread? I'll try to take it as an incentive to make better plays in your eyes in the future. :|

Nahh i scum read you because you and Naii were the most sus votes on me. If shock didnt target kaempf with disrupting role, my vote woulda been on you or naii since thats really all the reads i had and still do have.

[Coffeeditto]

Town Raiden Mei can also protect confirmed town power roles this way. Depending on whom you redirect the nightkill to, it might even kill mafia. You might redirect the medic, but if the medic protected the target that would be nightkilled, it will still protect the new target and prevent a nightkill from taking place. The main problem is redirecting town vigis onto other town or Raiden Mei being scum. I see no reason not to use it. A random redirect from a likely NK target changes the chance of mafia getting NK-ed from 0% to something more. It's still a minor chance, but an improvement.

For the specific case of nightkill on a mafia and redirecting it onto someone else... there is only one Fu Hua at most, since a town Fu Hua would not know whom is mafia, there is little benefit to go through such lengths yet, I'd think.

Until we have our investigative roles out with their reports (which should not happen yet) it's dangerous to possibly redirect onto Dura or other investigative roles like Emma and Theresa. The odds are both 3/14 for a redirect onto either. I think it comes down to what risks we're willing to take, but I will admit the redirect makes it possible to kill mafia. It probably is more beneficial to us for the redirect to happen, as it's possible that we hit mafia like you said.

That being said, the mechanics I'm talking about are if the mafia night kill one of their own AND redirect (in the case of mafia!Raiden) onto a target from there. Because all targeting gets switched, that means not only will the nightkill always go through, but if they hit someone with doc protection, the mafia gets a free protection from town vig hits.